AC Milan vs Atalanta preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 10 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
AC MilanMIL
AtalantaATA
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

AC Milan host Atalanta at the iconic Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in a gripping Serie A regular season clash of the 2025/2026 campaign. The Rossoneri, entrenched in 4th place, aim to widen the gap over 7th-placed Atalanta, who carry a slim power score advantage of 84.41 to Milan's 84.18, translating to a 0.2-point edge. Form metrics mirror this tightness, with Atalanta's 13.61 just ahead of Milan's 13.44. San Siro's electric atmosphere bolsters the home side, renowned for fluid attacks, while Atalanta's pressing intensity poses a stern test. Midfield dominance and defensive solidity will shape proceedings, as both clubs vie for vital points in the top-seven race. Limited advanced data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces underscores the need for on-pitch execution. This fixture brims with tactical intrigue and potential for end-to-end action.

TL;DR

  • Structural: AC Milan (4th) host Atalanta (7th) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, where Atalanta hold a 0.2-point power advantage.
  • Form: Atalanta edge form scores at 13.61 compared to AC Milan's 13.44.
  • Squad: No specific squad news available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable due to absent xG data and low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG variable metrics not accessible.
  • Market: AC Milan 43.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.4% (Δ+0%) | Atalanta 28.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
VS
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 75 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 W
Udinese Rank: 77 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Torino Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 L
Roma Rank: 83 D
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 14
14
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AC Milan
43.4%
Draw
28.4%
Away Atalanta
28.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.18
84.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AC Milan
Atalanta
Power Score
84.18
84.41
League Position
4
7
Global Rank
40
39

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AC Milan Atalanta

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AC Milan MIL Home
38 matches
Atalanta ATA Away
Match Record
14
Wins
14
10
Draws
10
14
Losses
14
Goals
48
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
48
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:38:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity
75817
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Zufferli
Christian Rossi
Francesco Fourneau
Pietro Dei Giudici

Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.08
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.98
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Defender
6.96
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.89
2
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán Midfielder
6.73
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.28
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.81
30
Ardon Jashari
Ardon Jashari Midfielder
6.83
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
7.13
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.02
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
6.74
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.05
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
6.98
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
7.03
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Defender
6.97
69
Honest Ahanor
Honest Ahanor Defender
6.71
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Defender
6.85
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
6.97
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon Midfielder
6.92
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Midfielder
7.15
9
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
7.08
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.06

CONCLUSION

This evenly poised Serie A encounter at San Siro highlights fine margins, with Atalanta's power and form nudges challenging AC Milan's home leverage and loftier league standing. The Rossoneri's 4th position underscores their consistency, yet Atalanta's resilience in 7th demands caution. Tactical battles in possession and pressing will dictate flow, while clinical moments prove decisive amid sparse advanced stats. Milan's attacking flair meets Atalanta's counter potency, promising intensity. Home support could sway the scales, but expect a hard-fought stalemate or narrow verdict keeping both sides in contention for European spots.