Aberdeen vs Hearts preview

Scotland flag 2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 1 Aug - 4:30 PM
Premiership
AberdeenABE
2 1
HeartsHEA
Full Time Sat, 1 Aug 4:30 PM
Round 1 1st Phase
Lewis Mayo - 90'
Kevin Nisbet - 90+5' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
|
Red Card Stuart Findlay 90+3'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Aberdeen 2–1 Hearts. The result saw Aberdeen take the points. Aberdeen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Aberdeen 2.9 – 1.4 Hearts. Possession was 51%–49%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Aberdeen 2-1 Hearts. Aberdeen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Dickinson
D. Dickinson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. McGeachie
D. McGeachie
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Ross
D. Ross
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Snedden
I. Snedden
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
Hearts W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 64 L
St. Mirren Rank: 63 L
Dundee United Rank: 66 W
Livingston Rank: 56 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 66 W
Hibernian Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 83 L
Falkirk Rank: 66 W
Motherwell Rank: 72 D
Rangers Rank: 79 W
Hibernian Rank: 72 W
Motherwell Rank: 72 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.52
74.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Hearts
Power Score
63.52
74.78
League Position
2
11
Global Rank
513
181

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hearts
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.98
38.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.67
25.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen -1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Hearts +1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Hearts
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen
vs
Hearts
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen Hearts
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
86%
44%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.46 vs -0.62
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
44%
86%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.62 vs -1.46
Aberdeen
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aberdeen
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aberdeen Hearts
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aberdeen 0.24
Hearts 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aberdeen Hearts
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aberdeen 0.02
Hearts 0.04
Aberdeen
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ABE had peak pressure around 93'.
  • ABE started the game with stronger pressure.
ABE Pressure HEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ABE reached the top pressure at 93' (76.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
6 matches
Hearts HEA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-02T00:03:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 01, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland · Round 1 · 1st Phase
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Dickinson
David McGeachie
Douglas Ross
Iain Snedden

Statistics

Possession
ABE
50%
HEA
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
8 Shots 12
45 Dangerous attacks 59
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4
25 Throwins 32
20 Successful Headers 17
1 Assists 0
7 Dribble Attempts 3

Attacking

91 Attacks 94

Possession

31 Long Passes 21
359 Passes 350
272 Successful Passes 259
76 Successful Passes Percentage 73
7 Key Passes 9

Defensive

3 Saves 1
11 Tackles 12
13 Interceptions 6

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

27
Marius Müller
Marius Müller Goalkeeper
6.87
23
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo Defender
8.63
24
Nesta Guinness-Walker
Nesta Guinness-Walker Defender
7.48
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy
Defender83'
6.43
26
Daniel Happe
Daniel Happe Defender
7.18
28
Chris Cadden
Chris Cadden Defender
7.45
9
Ayoub Mouloua
Ayoub Mouloua
Attacker73'
6.48
7
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Midfielder
6.83
11
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith
Attacker73'
6.41
8
Brad Lyons
Brad Lyons Midfielder
6.96
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Midfielder
6.76
25
Connor Ronan
Connor Ronan Midfielder
6.79
10
Alexander Briedl
Alexander Briedl
Midfielder73'
6.69
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
7.33
17
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong
Midfielder72'
6.69
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet (C) Attacker
8.92
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Beau Reus
Beau Reus Goalkeeper
6.02
6
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
7.61
17
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
6.04
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne (C) Defender
6.81
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Defender
6.66
7
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.74
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
7.31
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Midfielder80'
6.24
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota Midfielder
6.12
19
Sabri Guendouz
Sabri Guendouz
Attacker74'
6.51
78
Laurent Mendy
Laurent Mendy Midfielder
6.76
5
Jamie McCart
Jamie McCart
Defender75'
6.21
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
6.85
77
Amadou Ba-Sy
Amadou Ba-Sy Attacker
6.65
11
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Pierre Landry Kaboré
Attacker60'
6.45

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Penalty / 1st Penalty
90+5'
90+3'
Event
Stuart Findlay
Foul / 1st Redcard
Event
Lewis Mayo
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
90'
89'
Event
Harry Milne
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Gavin Molloy → Nesta Guinness-Walker
9th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Tómas Bent Magnússon → Blair Spittal
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Jamie McCart → Laurent Mendy
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Sabri Guendouz → Sabah Kerjota
6th Substitution
Event
Alexander Briedl → Connor Ronan
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Ayoub Mouloua → Chris Cadden
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Lewis Smith → Tony Yogane
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Stuart Armstrong → Afeez Aremu
2nd Substitution
72'
60'
Event
Pierre Landry Kaboré → Amadou Ba-Sy
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Jordi Altena
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Oisin McEntee
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Brad Lyons 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Nisbet receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Kevin Nisbet with his right foot results in a goal.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Kevin Nisbet scores, making it 2-1.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Jamie McCarthy.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Mayo takes a header shot but misses.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot and scores.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lewis Mayo scores, making it 1-1.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Harry Milne receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Happe attempts a header but misses the shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Update Update
Gavin Molloy is on, and Nesta Guinness-Walker is off.
83
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
80
Update Update
Tomas Bent Magnusson replaces Blair Spittal.
76
Update Update
Tomas Bent Magnusson is on, and Blair Spittal is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Jamie McCarthy comes on for Laurent Mendy.
75
Attempt Attempt
Oisin McEntee's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Substitution Substitution
Sabri Guendouz is substituted off for Sabah Kerjota.
74
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Kabore's left-footed shot is saved.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Attempt Attempt
Sabah Kerjota takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Attempt Attempt
Tony Yogane takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Christopher Cadden takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Blair Spittal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Pierre Kabore is on, and Amadou Ba Sy is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Stuart Findlay Head Shot Missed
53
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Ba Sy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Update Update
Offside.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aremu Afeez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Ba Sy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Laurent Mendy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordi Altena receives a yellow card.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Oisin McEntee scores with a right-footed shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Blair Spittal takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bradley Lyons receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Tony Yogane takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Blair Spittal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Update Update
Offside.
20
Attempt Attempt
Sabah Kerjota takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Braga takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sabah Kerjota's right-footed shot is blocked.
16
Update Update
Offside.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Update Update
Offside.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Aberdeen 2-1 Hearts. Structural assessment: Aberdeen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.