Aalesund vs Molde preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Color Line Stadion Sat, 11 Jul - 2:00 PM
Eliteserien
Aalesund Aalesund
2 – 2
Molde Molde
Full Time Sat, 11 Jul 2:00 PM
Round 13 Regular Season
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch - 14'
Mathias Christensen - 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter - 18'
Eirik Hestad - 31'

CONTEXT

Aalesund and Molde played to a 2-2 draw with the halftime score standing at 1-2. Molde entered as the stronger side and generated an xG total of 2.13 against Aalesund's 0.69, producing an xG differential of -1.44. Possession finished at 46 percent for Aalesund and 54 percent for Molde. No red cards were issued to either side. The final result represented a draw despite the xG gap and the pre-match expectation that the stronger team would prevail. Structural deviation reached a significant level with the outcome favoring the home side relative to underlying metrics. Efficiency remained in line with observed patterns across both teams.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation reached 100 percent and was classified as significant for Molde.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift finished in line with expected patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Outcome was not consistent with xG totals as the draw contradicted the 1.44 differential.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with market expectations despite the xG mismatch.
  • xG expectations: xG values projected a Molde win but the match ended level at 2-2.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the final scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Hansen
T. Hansen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Lundberg
M. Lundberg
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Tariq
I. Tariq
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Halsen
T. Halsen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Aalesund K. Rekdal
K. Rekdal
VS
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam Rank: 62 D
Tromsø Rank: 70 D
Brann Rank: 69 W
Rosenborg Rank: 63 W
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
Kristiansund Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 63 L
Kristiansund Rank: 55 W
Tromsø Rank: 70 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aalesund
0%
Draw
0%
Away Molde
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.99
66.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aalesund
Molde
Power Score
43.99
66.75
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
869
320

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aalesund — Opponent-weighted form score
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aalesund Molde

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aalesund

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aalesund ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Molde
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
41.39
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.39
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aalesund -1.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Molde +1.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aalesund
Molde
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aalesund
vs
Molde
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aalesund Molde
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
11%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.03 vs -0.24
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aalesund Molde
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
11%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.24 vs -0.03
Aalesund
Molde
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aalesund
vs
Molde
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aalesund Molde
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aalesund 0.18
Molde 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aalesund Molde
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aalesund 0.04
Molde 0.04
Aalesund
Molde
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Molde had peak pressure around 91'.
  • Molde started the game with stronger pressure.
Aalesund Pressure Molde Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Molde reached the top pressure at 91' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aalesund Aalesund Home
0 matches
Molde Molde Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:57:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Valderhaug Larsen
Norway
26 T. Valderhaug Larsen
U. Nwokoma
Substitution
Nigeria
14 U. Nwokoma
S. Haram
Substitution
Norway
4 S. Haram
A. Hammer Kjelsen
Norway
5 (C) A. Hammer Kjelsen
O. Gudmundsson
Iceland
3 O. Gudmundsson
K. Nesso
Substitution
Norway
7 K. Nesso
M. Christensen
Denmark
21 M. Christensen
E. Hagen
Substitution
Norway
18 E. Hagen
E. Hjertager Osenbroch
Norway
15 E. Hjertager Osenbroch
H. Molvær Melland
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Molvær Melland
K. Lonnebu
Norway
39 K. Lonnebu
A. Posiadała
Poland
22 A. Posiadała
M. Linnes
Substitution
Norway
25 M. Linnes
B. Risa
Substitution
Norway
33 B. Risa
I. Amundsen
Substitution
Norway
6 I. Amundsen
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
M. Møller Dæhli
Norway
17 M. Møller Dæhli
E. Breivik
Norway
10 (C) E. Breivik
S. Granaas
Norway
23 S. Granaas
O. Spiten-Nysæter
Substitution
Norway
21 O. Spiten-Nysæter
E. Hestad
Norway
5 E. Hestad
T. Doherty
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
24 T. Doherty

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 13 · Regular Season
Stadium
Color Line Stadion
Capacity
10778
Attendance
6735
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tore Hansen
Magnus Lundberg
Imran Tariq
Torgeir Halsen

Statistics

Possession
Aalesund
46%
Molde
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 7
50 Dangerous attacks 47
46 Possession 54
2 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

89 Ball Safe 97
11 Goal Kicks 8
5 Goal Attempts 16
5 Substitutions 5
11 Throwins 13
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Assists 1
0 Injuries 3
9 Successful Dribbles 12
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

Attacking

80 Attacks 93
10 Counter Attacks 11

Possession

393 Passes 468
323 Successful Passes 393
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
5 Key Passes 13

Defensive

7 Saves 2
17 Tackles 12
9 Interceptions 12
45 Duels Won 44

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
18 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

26
Tor Erik Valderhaug Larsen
Tor Erik Valderhaug Larsen Goalkeeper
7.65
3
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Ólafur Guðmundsson Defender
6.36
4
Simen Haram
Simen Haram Defender
6.3
25
Ulrik Syversen
Ulrik Syversen
Defender58'
7.26
5
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen (C) Defender
6.88
7
Kristoffer Nessø
Kristoffer Nessø Defender
6.39
2
Marius Andresen
Marius Andresen
Defender86'
6.76
14
Uba Charles
Uba Charles Defender
6.72
16
J. Ørsahl
J. Ørsahl
Defender86'
15
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch Midfielder
6.82
18
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
Elias Kristoffersen Hagen Midfielder
6.9
6
Hakon Butli Hammer
Hakon Butli Hammer
Midfielder86'
21
Mathias Christensen
Mathias Christensen Midfielder
8.07
8
Henrik Melland
Henrik Melland Attacker
6.76
17
E. Myrlid
E. Myrlid
Attacker80'
6.6
39
Kristian Lonebu
Kristian Lonebu Attacker
6.63
Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
6.52
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Isak Helstad Amundsen Defender
6.51
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan
Defender75'
6.14
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
6.99
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes Defender
6.8
26
Samukele Kabini
Samukele Kabini
Defender46'
6.21
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
6.63
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen
Defender59'
6.26
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.86
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Midfielder
6.57
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
6.64
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Midfielder
8.02
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery
Attacker67'
6.48
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
7.89
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty Attacker
7.14
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai
Attacker67'
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mathias Christensen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+6'
Event
Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen
4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Marius Andresen → Kristoffer Nessø
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Hakon Butli Hammer → Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
9th Substitution
86'
Event
J. Ørsahl → Uba Charles
10th Substitution
86'
Event
E. Myrlid → Henrik Melland
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Jalal Abdullai
3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Eirik Haugan → Isak Helstad Amundsen
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Jalal Abdullai → Trent Kone Doherty
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Caleb Zady Sery → Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
S. Hansen → Birk Risa
3rd Substitution
Event
Ulrik Syversen → Simen Haram
2nd Substitution
58'
46'
Event
Samukele Kabini → Martin Linnes
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Mats Møller Dæhli
1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
18'
Event
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Endre Hjertager Osenbroch
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Aalesund and Molde highlighted a clear separation between expected outcomes and actual results. Molde controlled more possession and created substantially higher xG yet could not convert the advantage into a victory. Aalesund defended effectively after trailing at halftime and secured the point through organized structure. Absence of red cards kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout. The significant deviation from xG metrics underscores how finishing variance can override underlying performance indicators. Both teams maintained efficiency levels consistent with season norms. The draw leaves Molde without maximum points despite dominance in chance creation while Aalesund demonstrated resilience in securing an unexpected result.