Portugal vs Croatia preview

2026 World Cup, World
Toronto Stadium Thu, 2 Jul - 11:00 PM
World Cup
Portugal POR
Croatia CRO
KICKOFF : Thu, 2 Jul - 11:00 PM
Round of 32

CONTEXT

Portugal and Croatia are set to clash in the Round of 32 stage of the 2026 World Cup at Toronto Stadium. This domestic cup encounter features two teams that have both secured second position in their domestic leagues, reflecting consistent performances throughout the season. The power scores are remarkably close, with Croatia at 22.22 edging out Portugal's 21.98, resulting in a minimal advantage of 0.2 points that designates Croatia as the marginally stronger outfit. Form indicators further highlight Croatia's edge at 14.78 against Portugal's 13.56, suggesting a slight momentum advantage for the visitors. With positions aligned and metrics tightly contested, the fixture presents a balanced prospect where tactical execution will likely determine the outcome. The venue in Toronto adds an international dimension to this high-stakes matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Both teams occupy second place in their respective domestic leagues.
  • Form: Croatia holds a form score advantage of 14.78 over Portugal's 13.56.
  • Squad: Detailed squad information is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not provided in the current dataset.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unspecified ahead of the match.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis relies on proxy data with low confidence for both Portugal and Croatia.
  • xVariable: Croatia possesses a slight power advantage of 0.2 points.
  • Market: Portugal 52.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28% (Δ+0%) | Croatia 19.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Portugal R. Martínez Montoliú
R. Martínez Montoliú
VS
Croatia Z. Dalić
Z. Dalić
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Colombia Rank: D
Uzbekistan Rank: W
Congo DR Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ghana Rank: W
Panama Rank: W
England Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portugal
52.93%
Draw
28.02%
Away Croatia
19.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.98
22.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portugal
Croatia
Power Score
21.98
22.22
League Position
2
2
Global Rank
5
11

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portugal — Opponent-weighted form score
Croatia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portugal Croatia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portugal POR Home
0 matches
Croatia CRO Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-29T00:02:34+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Meireles Costa
1 D. Meireles Costa
J. Cavaco Cancelo
20 J. Cavaco Cancelo
R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
R. Palma Veiga
13 R. Palma Veiga
N. Mendes
25 N. Mendes
R. Da Silva Neves
21 R. Da Silva Neves
V. Machado Ferreira
23 V. Machado Ferreira
P. Lomba Neto
18 P. Lomba Neto
B. Fernandes
8 B. Fernandes
J. Sequeira
11 J. Sequeira
C. Ronaldo
7 C. Ronaldo
D. Livaković
1 D. Livaković
I. Perišić
14 I. Perišić
M. Pongracic
3 M. Pongracic
J. Šutalo
6 J. Šutalo
J. Stanisic
2 J. Stanisic
M. Kovačić
8 M. Kovačić
L. Modrić
10 L. Modrić
M. Baturina
16 M. Baturina
P. Sučić
17 P. Sučić
N. Vlašić
13 N. Vlašić
A. Budimir
11 A. Budimir

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 02, 2026, 11:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium
Toronto Stadium
Capacity
45700
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
7.72
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo Centre Forward
7.56
3
Rúben Dias
Rúben Dias Right Back
7.48
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Attacking Midfield
7.62
11
João Félix
João Félix Left Wing
7.02
13
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Left Back
7.41
18
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Right Wing
6.78
20
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Right Back
7.18
21
Rúben Neves
Rúben Neves Defensive Midfield
6.73
23
Vitinha
Vitinha Defensive Midfield
7.32
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Left Back
7.54

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
6.9
11
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Centre Forward
6.96
2
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Right Back
6.85
3
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Left Back
6.81
6
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Right Back
6.76
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Defensive Midfield
6.85
10
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić Defensive Midfield
7.13
13
Nikola Vlašić
Nikola Vlašić Right Wing
6.8
14
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić Left Back
7.03
16
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Left Wing
7.26
17
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Attacking Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

The upcoming match between Portugal and Croatia promises a competitive affair given their similar domestic standings and closely matched power ratings. Croatia's narrow superiority in both overall power and recent form positions them favorably, yet Portugal's home-like environment at the neutral venue could level the playing field. Limited data on efficiency and transitional elements means focus will shift to on-pitch adaptability. Set piece situations carry uncertainty due to reliance on proxy metrics, potentially influencing key moments. Overall, the contest is expected to hinge on individual brilliance and strategic adjustments rather than statistical dominance alone. Fans can anticipate a tightly fought battle that showcases the depth of both squads in this World Cup setting.