Portugal vs Croatia preview
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Portugal defeated Croatia 2-1 in this encounter, with the halftime score standing at 0-0. Croatia entered as the stronger team, yet Portugal claimed victory through superior second-half performance. Portugal held 60 percent possession against Croatia's 40 percent. Expected goals stood at 2.2 for Portugal and 1.3 for Croatia, yielding a differential of 0.9. The result aligned with these xG figures. A notable deviation of 44.1 percent occurred for Portugal from initial projections. No red cards were shown to either side, preserving the full complement of players on the field. The match demonstrated Portugal's efficiency in capitalizing on chances after the break.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Final score: Portugal 2-1 Croatia. Portugal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the expected performance metrics.
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xG alignment: The match outcome aligned with the expected goals differential of 0.9.
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Market alignment: The result was consistent with market projections.
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xG expectations: Portugal generated 2.2 expected goals compared to Croatia's 1.3.
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Event impact: The score remained level at halftime with no goals scored by either side.
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Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Portugal
Croatia
Movement
Changes since opening
Portugal
Croatia
Team Power Ranking
i
21.98
22.22
Portugal
Croatia
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Portugal
Croatia
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Portugal
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Portugal
Portugal
Croatia
Portugal
Croatia
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Portugal
Portugal
Croatia
Portugal
Croatia
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- POR had peak pressure around 99'.
- POR started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:49:29+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary