France vs Sweden preview

2026 World Cup, World
New York New Jersey Stadium Tomorrow - 9:00 PM
World Cup
France FRA
Sweden SWE
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 9:00 PM
Round of 32

CONTEXT

France prepare to meet Sweden in the World Cup Round of 32 at New York New Jersey Stadium. The French side enter as clear power leaders with a rating of 42.96, ten points clear of their opponents. Domestic league positions underline the gap, with France sitting first and Sweden third. Form readings also favour the hosts, who post a score of 33.33 against Sweden's modest 6.22. Both teams operate without recent outing data, leaving the focus on season-long indicators. Set-piece information carries low confidence and relies on proxy modelling. Overall the fixture presents a structural mismatch that places the emphasis on France's ability to control proceedings from the outset.

TL;DR

  • Structural: France leads with a power score of 42.96 against Sweden's 32.81, creating a 10.2 point advantage.
  • Form: France displays superior form scoring 33.33 compared to Sweden's 6.22.
  • Squad: France holds a notable squad advantage based on overall power metrics.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not available for either side.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unavailable ahead of the contest.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis shows low confidence with proxy data in use.
  • xVariable: The primary variable is France's power advantage in this matchup.
  • Market: France 75.4% (Δ-0.1%) | Draw 16.3% (Δ-0.1%) | Sweden 8.3% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
France D. Deschamps
D. Deschamps
VS
Sweden G. Potter
G. Potter
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norway Rank: W
Iraq Rank: W
Senegal Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Japan Rank: D
Netherlands Rank: L
Tunisia Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home France
75.42%
Draw
16.33%
Away Sweden
8.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
France
-0.1%
Draw
-0.11%
Sweden
+0.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.96
32.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
France
Sweden
Power Score
42.96
32.81
League Position
1
3
Global Rank
1
38

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
France — Opponent-weighted form score
Sweden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) France Sweden

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

France FRA Home
2 matches
Sweden SWE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-29T00:01:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
M. Maignan
16 M. Maignan
J. Koundé
5 J. Koundé
D. Upamecano
4 D. Upamecano
M. Lacroix
26 M. Lacroix
T. Hernández
19 T. Hernández
A. Tchouaméni
8 A. Tchouaméni
A. Rabiot
14 A. Rabiot
O. Dembélé
7 O. Dembélé
M. Olise
11 M. Olise
D. Doue
20 D. Doue
K. Mbappé
10 K. Mbappé
J. Widell Zetterström
1 J. Widell Zetterström
G. Gudmundsson
5 G. Gudmundsson
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
G. Lagerbielke
2 G. Lagerbielke
E. Stroud
24 E. Stroud
L. Bergvall
7 L. Bergvall
Y. Ayari
18 Y. Ayari
A. Bernhardsson
21 A. Bernhardsson
A. Elanga
11 A. Elanga
A. Isak
9 A. Isak
V. Gyökeres
17 V. Gyökeres

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 30, 2026, 09:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 32
Stadium
New York New Jersey Stadium
Capacity
82500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
6.77
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé Centre Forward
8.19
14
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Defensive Midfield
7.19
7
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Right Wing
8.25
11
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Attacking Midfield
7.96
4
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Right Back
7.36
5
Jules Koundé
Jules Koundé Right Back
6.92
8
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Defensive Midfield
7.57
19
Theo Hernández
Theo Hernández Left Back
6.49
20
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Left Wing
7.05
26
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Left Back
6.47

Starting XI ▼

1
Jacob Widell Zetterström
Jacob Widell Zetterström Goalkeeper
6.61
24
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud Midfielder
6.59
21
Alexander Bernhardsson
Alexander Bernhardsson Midfielder
6.4
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak Attacker
7.64
17
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
7.41
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Centre Back
6.37
5
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Left Back
6.65
11
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga Attacking Midfield
7.43
18
Yasin Ayari
Yasin Ayari Central Midfield
7.38
2
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Right Back
6.61
7
Lucas Bergvall
Lucas Bergvall Central Midfield
6.6

CONCLUSION

France carry clear structural and form edges into this Round of 32 encounter. Their higher power rating and domestic standing suggest they will dictate tempo and territory against a Sweden side that has struggled for consistency. With efficiency and transition metrics unavailable, attention turns to how the French convert their underlying superiority into clear chances. Sweden will look to stay compact and exploit any lapses, yet the numbers point to limited scope for an upset. Expect France to press for an early foothold and manage the game through controlled possession and set-piece discipline.