Belgium vs Senegal preview
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Belgium staged a remarkable second-half recovery to overcome Senegal 3-2 after trailing 0-1 at the interval. Despite Senegal registering the higher xG total of 2.94 against Belgium's 2.16 and entering as the stronger side, the home team turned the contest around through improved finishing and tactical adjustments. Possession remained balanced at 52 percent for Belgium and 48 percent for Senegal. The outcome contradicted underlying performance metrics yet matched pre-match expectations in the market. No dismissals occurred to alter the flow. Belgium's victory highlighted their resilience and ability to capitalize on key moments despite statistical disadvantages. The match showcased contrasting styles with Senegal controlling much of the chance creation early on before Belgium asserted dominance later.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Final score: Belgium 3-2 Senegal. Belgium showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Belgium's finishing proved in line with expectations after a poor first half.
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xG alignment: The final result was inconsistent with xG as Senegal created more quality chances at 2.94.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Senegal exceeded xG expectations but failed to convert superiority into a victory.
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Event impact: Belgium's second-half adjustments directly led to three goals and overturned the halftime deficit.
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Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so the match proceeded without any disciplinary distortions.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Belgium
Senegal
Movement
Changes since opening
Belgium
Senegal
Team Power Ranking
i
24.2
50
Belgium
Senegal
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Belgium
Senegal
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Belgium
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Belgium
Belgium
Senegal
Belgium
Senegal
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Belgium
Belgium
Senegal
Belgium
Senegal
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- BEL had peak pressure around 69'.
- SEN started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:49:16+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary