Fenerbahçe vs İstanbul Başakşehir preview

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
KICKOFF : Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fenerbahçe host İstanbul Başakşehir at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in a key Super Lig regular season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. The Yellow Canaries, perched in 2nd place, wield a commanding power score of 36.16 against the visitors' 27.53, yielding an 8.6-point advantage that marks them as the stronger side. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Fenerbahçe's 23.67 eclipsing Başakşehir's 18.39. Playing at their fortress-like home ground, the hosts eye a statement win to cement their title credentials over the 5th-placed challengers. While detailed set piece and efficiency insights remain limited due to low-confidence proxies and absent xG data, the overall balance heavily favors Fenerbahçe in this Istanbul derby-lite encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Fenerbahçe holds a structural power advantage of 8.6 points with a score of 36.16 over İstanbul Başakşehir's 27.53.
  • Form: Fenerbahçe's form score of 23.67 surpasses İstanbul Başakşehir's 18.39.
  • Squad: Fenerbahçe sit 2nd in the Super Lig table while İstanbul Başakşehir occupy 5th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxy metrics with no xG data for either side.
  • xVariable: xG variables are unavailable as xG data is not enabled.
  • Market: Fenerbahçe 58.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.2% (Δ+0%) | İstanbul Başakşehir 19.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
2.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: L
Rizespor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Trabzonspor Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 4 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
58.72%
Draw
22.23%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
19.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.16
27.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
36.16
27.53
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe İstanbul Başakşehir

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
35 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
20
Wins
11
4
Draws
4
11
Losses
20
Goals
55
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
55
+19
Goal Difference
-19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:33:33+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity
50530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

31
Ederson Santana de Moraes
Ederson Santana de Moraes Goalkeeper
34
Fehmi Mert Günok
Fehmi Mert Günok Goalkeeper
13
Tarık Çetin
Tarık Çetin Goalkeeper
39
Engin Biterge
Engin Biterge Goalkeeper
4
Caglar Söyüncü
Caglar Söyüncü Defender
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar Defender
27
Nélson Cabral Semedo
Nélson Cabral Semedo Defender
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür Defender
22
Münir Mercan
Münir Mercan Defender
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
14
Yiğit Efe Demir
Yiğit Efe Demir Defender
67
Kamil Efe Üregen
Kamil Efe Üregen Defender
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
6
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié
Mattéo Guendouzi Olié Midfielder
94
Anderson Souza Conceição
Anderson Souza Conceição Midfielder
21
Marco Asensio Willemsen
Marco Asensio Willemsen Midfielder
7
Frederico Rodrigues Santos
Frederico Rodrigues Santos Midfielder
11
Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez
Edson Omar Álvarez Velázquez Midfielder
8
Mert Hakan Yandaş
Mert Hakan Yandaş Midfielder
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder
60
Abdou Aziz Fall
Abdou Aziz Fall Midfielder
—
Emre Mor
Emre Mor Attacker
9
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu Attacker
70
Oğuz Aydın
Oğuz Aydın Attacker
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba Attacker
45
Nene Dorgeles
Nene Dorgeles Attacker
26
Sidiki Cherif
Sidiki Cherif Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Volkan Babacan
Volkan Babacan Goalkeeper
16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
80
Doğan Alemdar
Doğan Alemdar Goalkeeper
78
Lucas Stancic
Lucas Stancic Goalkeeper
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut Defender
21
Christopher Operi
Christopher Operi Defender
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
5
Leonardo Duarte da Silva
Leonardo Duarte da Silva Defender
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba Defender
36
Festy Ebosele
Festy Ebosele Defender
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
15
Hamza Güreler
Hamza Güreler Defender
8
Olivier Michel Kemen
Olivier Michel Kemen Midfielder
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün Midfielder
2
Berat Ayberk Özdemir
Berat Ayberk Özdemir Midfielder
13
Miguel Crespo da Silva
Miguel Crespo da Silva Midfielder
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
18
Jakub Kałuziński
Jakub Kałuziński Midfielder
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke Attacker
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Attacker
10
Nuno Miguel da Costa Jóia
Nuno Miguel da Costa Jóia Attacker
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Attacker
7
Yusuf Sari
Yusuf Sari Attacker
77
Ivan Brnić
Ivan Brnić Attacker
91
Bertuğ Özgür Yıldırım
Bertuğ Özgür Yıldırım Attacker
11
Abbosbek Fayzullayev
Abbosbek Fayzullayev Attacker
45
Berkay Aslan
Berkay Aslan Attacker

CONCLUSION

Fenerbahçe's robust power score and superior form make them the standout favorites against İstanbul Başakşehir at Şükrü Saracoğlu. The 8.6-point edge and 2nd-place standing amplify home dominance in this Super Lig clash, while the visitors' 5th spot and lower metrics suggest a tough assignment. Absent detailed efficiency, transition, and xG insights leave some uncertainty, but the hosts' overall profile promises control and likely victory. Expect Fenerbahçe to harness venue energy for a persuasive performance that boosts their title push.