FC Köln vs Werder Bremen preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
RheinEnergieStadion Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Köln KOE
Werder Bremen SVW
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FC Köln hosts Werder Bremen at the RheinEnergieStadion for a Regular Season match in the 2025/2026 Bundesliga campaign. Both clubs are positioned near the lower end of the table, with the home team currently occupying 15th place in the league. The visiting side sits narrowly ahead of them in 14th position. FC Köln enters this fixture searching for more positive results, as their season form reads W0 D4 L2 from 6 matches. In their most recent competitive outing, the home side recorded a draw when playing away against Eintracht Frankfurt. Werder Bremen has experienced mixed fortunes recently. Their season form reads W3 D0 L3 from 6 matches, showing an even split of victories and defeats. They will aim to recover in this away trip after suffering a loss at home against RB Leipzig in their previous match.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Werder Bremen hold a +13.7 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Werder Bremen sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: FC Köln show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Werder Bremen have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Werder Bremen carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Werder Bremen hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: FC Köln 43% | Draw 27.1% | Werder Bremen 29.9%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
VS
Werder Bremen D. Thioune
D. Thioune
0.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 91 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 75 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 78 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 75 W
Heidenheim Rank: 69 W
St. Pauli Rank: 72 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 11 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Köln
43%
Draw
27.1%
Away Werder Bremen
29.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.99
75.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Köln
Werder Bremen
Power Score
61.99
75.7
League Position
15
14
Global Rank
110
93

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Werder Bremen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Köln Werder Bremen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Köln KOE Home
27 matches
Werder Bremen SVW Away
Match Record
6
Wins
10
11
Draws
11
10
Losses
6
Goals
34
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
34
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T01:06:21+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Schwäbe
1 M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
28 S. Sebulonsen
R. van den Berg
33 R. van den Berg
C. Özkacar
39 C. Özkacar
J. Thielmann
29 J. Thielmann
T. Krauß
5 T. Krauß
D. Huseinbasic
8 D. Huseinbasic
J. Kamiński
16 J. Kamiński
K. Hansen
32 K. Hansen
S. El Mala
13 S. El Mala
R. Ache
9 R. Ache
M. Backhaus
30 M. Backhaus
O. Deman
2 O. Deman
M. Friedl
32 M. Friedl
A. Pieper
5 A. Pieper
F. Agu
27 F. Agu
L. Bittencourt
10 L. Bittencourt
S. Lynen
14 S. Lynen
R. Schmid
20 R. Schmid
S. Mbangula
7 S. Mbangula
J. Njinmah
11 J. Njinmah
M. Grüll
17 M. Grüll

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion
Capacity
50000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann Midfielder
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Midfielder
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
9
Ragnar Ache
Ragnar Ache Attacker
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Right Back
33
Rav van den Berg
Rav van den Berg Centre Back
5
Tom Krauß
Tom Krauß Central Midfield
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Left Back
8
Denis Huseinbasic
Denis Huseinbasic Central Midfield
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Central Midfield

Starting XI ▼

30
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus Goalkeeper
11
Justin Njinmah
Justin Njinmah Centre Forward
7
Samuel Mbangula
Samuel Mbangula Attacker
17
Marco Grüll
Marco Grüll Attacker
5
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper Right Back
27
Felix Agu
Felix Agu Right Back
32
Marco Friedl
Marco Friedl Left Back
2
Olivier Deman
Olivier Deman Left Back
20
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid Central Midfield
14
Senne Lynen
Senne Lynen Central Midfield
10
Leonardo Bittencourt
Leonardo Bittencourt Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Werder Bremen carries the stronger pre-match profile into this Bundesliga fixture, holding a 13.7-point power advantage over FC Köln. Despite this underlying structural edge for the visitors, the market signals indicate a clear divergence. FC Köln is identified as the market leader with a 42.6 percent implied probability, contrasting directly with Werder Bremen at 30.6 percent and a draw at 26.8 percent. This structural and probabilistic discrepancy presents conflicting perspectives on the match dynamics at the RheinEnergieStadion. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on whether the visiting squad can effectively translate their systemic midfield superiority into sustained final-third penetration to break down the opposing defensive block.