FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
RheinEnergieStadion Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Köln KOE
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 1:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FC Köln hosts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at RheinEnergieStadion in the Bundesliga's 2025/2026 regular season. The home side occupies 12th place, grappling with inconsistency, while visitors sit comfortably 6th, showcasing greater stability. Leverkusen's power score towers at 31.53 against Köln's 16.8, yielding a substantial 14.7-point advantage that underscores their superior overall strength. Form scores mirror this gap, with Leverkusen at 25 and Köln at 13.72, highlighting recent momentum disparities. Absent last outing specifics or detailed form records, analysis hinges on these metrics and standings. Set piece evaluations suffer from low-confidence proxies and unavailable xG data for both squads. Köln's home turf offers hope, yet Leverkusen's edge positions them to dictate proceedings in this mid-to-upper table showdown.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bayer 04 Leverkusen holds a decisive 14.7-point power advantage over FC Köln.
  • Form: Leverkusen surpasses Köln in form with a score of 25 against 13.72.
  • Squad: Current standings rank FC Köln 12th and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for both competing teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data lacks detail in the provided analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance relies on low-confidence proxies without xG availability.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables absent due to disabled add-on and proxy usage.
  • Market: FC Köln 26.3% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 24.1% (Δ+0.2%) | Bayer 04 Leverkusen 49.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
0.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: D
Werder Bremen Rank: W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: D
Hamburger SV Rank: D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: D
FC Bayern München Rank: D
SC Freiburg Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Köln
26.32%
Draw
24.14%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
49.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Köln
-0.19%
Draw
+0.16%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
+0.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.8
31.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Köln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
16.8
31.53
League Position
12
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Köln Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Köln KOE Home
29 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
7
Wins
17
5
Draws
5
17
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
28
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:04:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 M. Schwäbe
S. Sebulonsen
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
C. Özkacar
Türkiye
39 C. Özkacar
J. Thielmann
Germany
29 J. Thielmann
Í. Jóhannesson
Iceland
18 Í. Jóhannesson
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
A. Castro-Montes
Belgium
17 A. Castro-Montes
J. Kamiński
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
M. Bülter
Germany
30 M. Bülter
S. El Mala
Germany
13 S. El Mala
M. Flekken
Netherlands
1 M. Flekken
E. Tapsoba
Burkina Faso
12 E. Tapsoba
L. Badé
France
5 L. Badé
R. Andrich
Germany
8 R. Andrich
A. Grimaldo García
Spain
20 A. Grimaldo García
A. García Serrano
Spain
24 A. García Serrano
E. Palacios
Argentina
25 E. Palacios
M. Amare Culbreath
Germany
42 M. Amare Culbreath
E. Poku
Netherlands
19 E. Poku
I. Maza
Algeria
30 I. Maza
P. Schick
Czech Republic
14 P. Schick

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
RheinEnergieStadion
Capacity
50000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Christian Leicher
Tobias Schultes
Timo Gerach
Robert Hartmann

Lineup

Referee : Robert Hartmann

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe Goalkeeper
6.91
17
Alessio Castro-Montes
Alessio Castro-Montes Defender
6.98
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
6.66
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
6.56
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann Defender
6.69
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.7
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
6.89
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
7.12
18
Ísak Jóhannesson
Ísak Jóhannesson Midfielder
6.79
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
6.77
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter Attacker
6.88
Referee : Robert Hartmann

Starting XI ▼

1
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken Goalkeeper
6.8
5
Loïc Badé
Loïc Badé Defender
6.95
8
Robert Andrich
Robert Andrich Defender
6.78
12
Edmond Tapsoba
Edmond Tapsoba Defender
7.16
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Alejandro Grimaldo Defender
7.47
42
Montrell Culbreath
Montrell Culbreath Defender
6.67
19
Ernest Poku
Ernest Poku Midfielder
6.86
24
Aleix García
Aleix García Midfielder
7.39
25
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios Midfielder
6.87
30
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza Midfielder
7.15
14
Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick Attacker
7.01

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 14.7-point edge. External projection is FC Köln 25.5%, draw 24.2%, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen 50.4%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.