Country 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Allianz Arena Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
FC Bayern München FCB
VS
Real Madrid RMA
KICKOFF : Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 1

CONTEXT

Welcome to the Allianz Arena for Leg 2 of 2 in the 2025/2026 Champions League Quarter-finals, as FC Bayern München takes on Real Madrid. The aggregate score entering this match stands at 2 - 1 in favor of the hosts. This follows the opening fixture exactly 8 days ago, where the first leg teams as played were Real Madrid (home) and FC Bayern München (away). That encounter resulted in a first_leg_scoreline of 1-2, giving FC Bayern München a crucial away victory in their last outing while handing Real Madrid a home loss. Heading into this decisive international cup tie, FC Bayern München is statistically the stronger team. They boast a maximum power score of 100, giving them a 6.6-point power advantage over Real Madrid, who hold a power score of 93.36. The hosts also bring flawless momentum into the match; holding league position 2, Bayern has a perfect 100 form score with a record of W6 D0 L0 from 6 matches. Conversely, Real Madrid sits in league position 9 with a form score of 66.67, stemming from a form record of W4 D0 L2 from 6 matches. The betting markets align with the data, giving FC Bayern München a commanding 60.5% probability of securing the win (market delta -0.2). Meanwhile, both a draw (delta -0.9) and a Real Madrid away victory (

TL;DR

  • Structural: FC Bayern München hold a +6.6 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: FC Bayern München sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: FC Bayern München show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: FC Bayern München have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: FC Bayern München carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: FC Bayern München hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: FC Bayern München 59.5% (Δ-1%) | Draw 19.7% (Δ-0.1%) | Real Madrid 20.8% (Δ+1%)
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: 94 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 W
Atalanta Rank: 86 W
PSV Rank: 85 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 W
Sporting CP Rank: 89 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Manchester City Rank: 96 W
Manchester City Rank: 97 W
Benfica Rank: 86 W
Benfica Rank: 86 W
Benfica Rank: 86 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
59.54%
Draw
19.68%
Away Real Madrid
20.77%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
-0.97%
Draw
-0.07%
Real Madrid
+1.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
100
93.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
Real Madrid
Power Score
100
93.36
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
1
6

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München Real Madrid

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
19 matches
Real Madrid RMA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
24
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:03:44+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 15, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 1
Stadium
Allianz Arena
Capacity
75024
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
26
Sven Ulreich
Sven Ulreich Goalkeeper
40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
48
Leon Klanac
Leon Klanac Goalkeeper
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
22
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro
Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro Defender
2
Dayotchanculle Upamecano
Dayotchanculle Upamecano Defender
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
19
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies Defender
3
Min-Jae Kim
Min-Jae Kim Defender
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
45
Aleksandar Pavlović
Aleksandar Pavlović Midfielder
20
Tom Bischof
Tom Bischof Midfielder
42
Lennart Karl
Lennart Karl Midfielder
7
Serge Gnabry
Serge Gnabry Attacker
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
14
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda
Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda Attacker
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise Attacker
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker

Squad ▼

1
Thibaut Courtois
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper
13
Andriy Lunin
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper
26
Francisco Javier González Pérez
Francisco Javier González Pérez Goalkeeper
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent Alexander-Arnold Defender
4
David Olatukunbo Alaba
David Olatukunbo Alaba Defender
2
Daniel Carvajal Ramos
Daniel Carvajal Ramos Defender
22
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Defender
23
Ferland Mendy
Ferland Mendy Defender
3
Éder Gabriel Militão
Éder Gabriel Militão Defender
20
Francisco José García Torres
Francisco José García Torres Defender
18
Álvaro Carreras
Álvaro Carreras Defender
17
Raúl Asencio del Rosario
Raúl Asencio del Rosario Defender
24
Dean Donny Huijsen
Dean Donny Huijsen Defender
19
Daniel Ceballos Fernández
Daniel Ceballos Fernández Midfielder
8
Federico Santiago Valverde Dipetta
Federico Santiago Valverde Dipetta Midfielder
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Midfielder
37
Manuel Angel Moran Ibanez
Manuel Angel Moran Ibanez Midfielder
15
Arda Guler
Arda Guler Midfielder
28
Jorge Cestero Sancho
Jorge Cestero Sancho Midfielder
45
Thiago Pitarch Pinar
Thiago Pitarch Pinar Midfielder
10
Kylian Mbappé Lottin
Kylian Mbappé Lottin Attacker
21
Brahim Abdelkader Diaz
Brahim Abdelkader Diaz Attacker
7
Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior
Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior Attacker
11
Rodrygo Silva de Goes
Rodrygo Silva de Goes Attacker
16
Gonzalo García Torres
Gonzalo García Torres Attacker
30
Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward FC Bayern München holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give FC Bayern München a 6.6-point edge. Market probabilities are FC Bayern München 60.5%, draw 19.8%, and Real Madrid 19.8%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.