Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stamford Bridge Today - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Chelsea CHE
Nottingham Forest NFO
KICKOFF : Today - 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Chelsea host Nottingham Forest at Stamford Bridge in a Premier League regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. The Blues occupy 9th place in the domestic standings, five spots above the 16th-placed visitors. Chelsea's power score of 89 significantly outstrips Forest's 71.68, translating to a 17.3-point advantage that underscores their status as the stronger team overall. Yet, recent form paints a contrasting picture, with Forest's superior 26.06 rating eclipsing Chelsea's 9.22, hinting at potential resilience from the away side. No last outings or detailed form records are available, while set piece metrics carry low confidence due to absent xG data and proxy usage for both clubs. League positions reflect Chelsea's steadier campaign so far. This matchup pits home structural superiority against visiting momentum, promising a tactical intrigue under the Stamford Bridge lights.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Chelsea possess a 17.3-point power advantage over Nottingham Forest.
  • Form: Nottingham Forest hold a higher form score of 26.06 compared to Chelsea's 9.22.
  • Squad: No specific squad or injury updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this Premier League encounter.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided in pre-match analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with no xG available for Chelsea or Nottingham Forest.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Chelsea 55.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+0%) | Nottingham Forest 20.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Manchester United Rank: 90 L
Manchester City Rank: 97 L
Everton Rank: 87 L
Newcastle United Rank: 89 L
Aston Villa Rank: 90 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 W
Fulham Rank: 86 D
Manchester City Rank: 98 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
55.35%
Draw
24.35%
Away Nottingham Forest
20.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89
71.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
89
71.68
League Position
9
16
Global Rank
16
20

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Nottingham Forest

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
11 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
23
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:07:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
M. Gusto
France
27 M. Gusto
W. Fofana
France
29 W. Fofana
T. Chalobah
England
23 T. Chalobah
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
P. Lomba Neto
Portugal
7 P. Lomba Neto
R. Lavia
Belgium
45 R. Lavia
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
L. Delap
England
9 L. Delap
M. Sels
Belgium
26 M. Sels
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
J. da Cunha Filho
Brazil
23 J. da Cunha Filho
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
T. Olaoluwa Aina
Nigeria
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
M. Gibbs-White
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
I. Sangaré
Ivory Coast
6 I. Sangaré
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
C. Wood
New Zealand
11 C. Wood
I. da Cruz
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz

General Information

Date & Time
May 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stamford Bridge
Capacity
40341
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Michael Salisbury
Adam Nunn

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.83
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
6.54
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
6.95
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
6.82
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6.96
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Midfielder
6.87
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.94
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.24
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
7.05
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
6.64
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap Attacker
6.63
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.76
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
6.96
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha Defender
6.63
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.75
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Defender
6.81
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
6.85
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.24
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
7.04
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
6.84
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.89
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
6.78

CONCLUSION

Chelsea's clear power edge and home venue at Stamford Bridge position them favorably against a Nottingham Forest side buoyed by better recent form. The Blues' 9th-place standing contrasts Forest's 16th, suggesting greater consistency, though the visitors' momentum could spark counters. Limited set piece insights mean open play will dominate, with Chelsea's structural superiority likely prevailing in possession battles. Expect the hosts to control tempo and convert chances efficiently, overcoming form disparity for a home victory in this mid-table tussle.