Catanzaro vs Modena preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Tue, 14 Apr - 5:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
Modena MOD
KICKOFF : Tue, 14 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Catanzaro host Modena in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Domestically, Catanzaro sit 5th in the table while Modena are 6th. Power ranking favours Catanzaro by 2.7 points heading into this fixture. Catanzaro's recent form reads W2 D3 L1 from 6 matches; Modena's form is W2 D2 L2 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Catanzaro Draw away against Avellino. Modena last played away versus Südtirol, finishing with a Draw.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Catanzaro hold a +2.7 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Catanzaro sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Catanzaro show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Catanzaro have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Catanzaro carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Catanzaro hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Catanzaro 32.7% | Draw 27.9% | Modena 39.5%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: 50 D
Monza Rank: 65 D
Cesena Rank: 52 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Carrarese Rank: 55 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 55 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 L
Mantova Rank: 52 W
Spezia Rank: 50 W
Cesena Rank: 54 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 1 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
32.65%
Draw
27.89%
Away Modena
39.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.05
57.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Modena
Power Score
60.05
57.39
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
464
547

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Modena

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
8 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
11
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:03:20+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
23 N. Brighenti
C. Favasuli
27 C. Favasuli
J. Petriccione
10 J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
20 S. Pontisso
G. Alesi
30 G. Alesi
M. Liberali
14 M. Liberali
P. Iemmello
9 P. Iemmello
F. Pittarello
8 F. Pittarello
L. Chichizola
1 L. Chichizola
B. Nieling
20 B. Nieling
D. Adorni
28 D. Adorni
D. Tonoli
77 D. Tonoli
L. Zanimacchia
98 L. Zanimacchia
S. Santoro
8 S. Santoro
F. Gerli
16 F. Gerli
S. Wiafe
71 S. Wiafe
F. Zampano
7 F. Zampano
M. De Luca
99 M. De Luca
E. Gliozzi
9 E. Gliozzi

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity
14650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Piccinini

Expected Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Midfielder
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello Midfielder
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Centre Forward
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Right Back
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Centre Back
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Central Midfield
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Central Midfield
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Left Back
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

1
Leandro Chichizola
Leandro Chichizola Goalkeeper
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi Attacker
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Central Midfield
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Right Back
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Central Midfield
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Centre Back
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Left Back
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Catanzaro holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Catanzaro a 2.7-point edge. Market probabilities are Catanzaro 32.7%, draw 27.9%, and Modena 39.5%. That market view diverges from the structural profile, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.