Catanzaro vs Bari 1908 preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Yesterday - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
Bari 1908 BAR
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Catanzaro host Bari 1908 in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Domestically, Catanzaro sit 5th in the table while Bari 1908 are 17th. Power ranking favours Catanzaro by 10.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Catanzaro holds 5th place and a 10.3-point power advantage over 17th-placed Bari 1908.
  • Form: Catanzaro's form score of 16.44 surpasses Bari 1908's 14.11.
  • Squad: Catanzaro's power score of 60.65 significantly outrates Bari 1908's 50.31.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable for both teams due to low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Catanzaro 31.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 31.4% (Δ+0%) | Bari 1908 37.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Modena Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 53 D
Monza Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Avellino Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Monza Rank: 66 L
Modena Rank: 58 W
Carrarese Rank: 54 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
31.44%
Draw
31.37%
Away Bari 1908
37.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.65
50.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Bari 1908
Power Score
60.65
50.31
League Position
5
17
Global Rank
471
784

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Bari 1908

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
7 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
10
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:04:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
22 M. Pigliacelli
R. Frosinini
62 R. Frosinini
M. Antonini Lui
4 M. Antonini Lui
F. Moreira Pacheco
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
C. Favasuli
27 C. Favasuli
M. Pompetti
21 M. Pompetti
S. Pontisso
20 S. Pontisso
F. Di Francesco
94 F. Di Francesco
R. Oudin
28 R. Oudin
P. Amoako Nuamah
19 P. Amoako Nuamah
F. Pittarello
8 F. Pittarello
M. Cerofolini
31 M. Cerofolini
E. Dorval
93 E. Dorval
V. Mantovani
13 V. Mantovani
C. Odenthal
26 C. Odenthal
L. Dickmann
24 L. Dickmann
K. Piscopo
28 K. Piscopo
T. Pontes Esteves
19 T. Pontes Esteves
N. Bellomo
10 N. Bellomo
R. Pagano
8 R. Pagano
E. Rao
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity
14650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simone Sozza
Giacomo Monaco
Glauco Zanellati
Giuseppe Mucera

Expected Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.75
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah Midfielder
6.47
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.95
28
Rémi Oudin
Rémi Oudin Midfielder
6.72
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.85
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Centre Forward
7.06
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Left Back
6.64
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Centre Back
6.9
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Central Midfield
7.2
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti Central Midfield
6.66
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini Right Back
6.57
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
7.07
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
6.75
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
6.83
8
Riccardo Pagano
Riccardo Pagano Attacking Midfield
6.65
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Left Back
6.57
24
Lorenzo Dickmann
Lorenzo Dickmann Right Back
6.72
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Central Midfield
6.57
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Right Back
6.81
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Central Midfield
6.44
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Left Back
6.8
10
Nicola Bellomo
Nicola Bellomo Central Midfield
6.6

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Catanzaro holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Catanzaro a 10.3-point edge. External projection is Catanzaro 33.8%, draw 29.6%, and Bari 1908 36.6%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.