Casa Pia vs Tondela preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Pina Manique Yesterday - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Casa Pia CPAC
Tondela CDT
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 2:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Casa Pia welcomes Tondela to Estádio Pina Manique for a Liga Portugal regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. Both sides languish near the bottom, with Casa Pia in 16th and Tondela 17th, making this a vital clash in the relegation battle. Casa Pia enjoys a clear structural superiority, boasting a power score of 62.25 to Tondela's 52.78, translating to a 9.5-point edge that underscores their overall quality advantage. Yet, Tondela arrives with stronger recent momentum, their form score of 8.11 outpacing Casa Pia's 6.39. Home advantage could prove decisive for Casa Pia, who must capitalize on their higher ceiling despite Tondela's hotter streak. Data limitations abound, including unavailable efficiency metrics and low-confidence set-piece proxies, shifting focus to core strengths and execution. Tondela's resilience on the road will test Casa Pia's resolve in this evenly poised but home-leaning affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Casa Pia holds a 9.5-point power advantage with a score of 62.25 over Tondela's 52.78.
  • Form: Tondela shows better form at 8.11 compared to Casa Pia's 6.39.
  • Squad: Squad composition details are unavailable for both teams.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data relies on low-confidence proxies with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Projection split: Casa Pia 41.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.5% (Δ+0%) | Tondela 29.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.76
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Santa Clara Rank: 64 D
Alverca Rank: 65 L
Benfica Rank: 87 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 L
AVS Rank: 56 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Casa Pia
41.39%
Draw
29.53%
Away Tondela
29.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.25
52.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Casa Pia
Tondela
Power Score
62.25
52.78
League Position
16
17
Global Rank
410
480

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Tondela

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home
1 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:06:11+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
J. Goulart Silva
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Geraldes de Barros
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
David Sousa
43 David Sousa
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
I. Mohamed
24 I. Mohamed
R. Brito
8 R. Brito
P. Silva Rosas
75 P. Silva Rosas
J. Livolant
29 J. Livolant
C. Dias Moreira
90 C. Dias Moreira
J. Freitas Silva Marques
11 J. Freitas Silva Marques
B. Parise Fontes
31 B. Parise Fontes
R. Fernandes Conceição
27 R. Fernandes Conceição
C. Marques
4 C. Marques
J. Antunes da Silva
44 J. Antunes da Silva
T. Silva Manso
48 T. Silva Manso
J. Rodríguez López
32 J. Rodríguez López
S. Sithole
15 S. Sithole
H. Lopes Vieira Tavares
8 H. Lopes Vieira Tavares
M. Sie Ouattara
70 M. Sie Ouattara
M. Mesquita Lopes
16 M. Mesquita Lopes
P. Pereira dos Santos
7 P. Pereira dos Santos

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Pina Manique
Capacity
7000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
André Filipe Domingues Narciso
André Filipe Santos de Jesus Botelho
Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva
Marcos Roberto Viegas Brazão

Expected Lineup

Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.65
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
6.53
11
João Marques
João Marques Attacker
6.73
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Attacker
7.04
90
Cassiano
Cassiano Centre Forward
6.67
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Right Back
6.58
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito Central Midfield
6.72
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Centre Back
6.5
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Central Midfield
6.57
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Left Back
6.74
Referee : André Filipe Domingues Narciso

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
6.93
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Attacker
6.92
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Centre Forward
6.98
70
Moudjatovic
Moudjatovic Attacker
6.54
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Left Back
6.68
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares Central Midfield
6.54
15
Yaya Sithole
Yaya Sithole Central Midfield
6.57
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição Left Back
6.59
32
Juanse
Juanse Central Midfield
6.69
44
João Silva
João Silva Right Back
6.68
48
Tiago Manso
Tiago Manso Right Back
6.62

CONCLUSION

Casa Pia's structural edge and home venue position them favorably against a formidably momentum-driven Tondela side. The 9.5-point power gap highlights Casa Pia's superior baseline quality, potentially tipping the scales in a match where both teams desperately need points to climb from the relegation zone. Tondela's higher form score suggests they can compete, but lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, execution in open play becomes paramount. Expect Casa Pia to control possession and press their advantage, though Tondela's recent sharpness could force a cagey contest. Overall, the hosts' quality should prevail in this pivotal bottom-table showdown.