Carrarese vs Cesena preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
Cesena CES
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Carrarese hosts Cesena at Stadio dei Marmi in a pivotal Serie B regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Positioned 10th in the standings, the home side edges out the 9th-placed visitors with a power score of 21.81 against 18.69, translating to a 3.1-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Recent form tilts further in Carrarese's favor, boasting an 18.39 rating compared to Cesena's 13.28, suggesting momentum on the hosts' side despite sparse details on last outings. League positions reflect a closely contested mid-table battle, where every point counts toward climbing higher. While advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces remain unavailable due to limited xG data, the baseline power and form indicators point to a competitive encounter. Carrarese's home venue could prove decisive in breaking down Cesena's resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Carrarese possesses a 3.1-point power advantage over Cesena with scores of 21.81 to 18.69.
  • Form: Hosts lead in form ratings at 18.39 versus Cesena's 13.28.
  • Squad: No specific squad updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable in current analysis.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance lacks xG data, relying on low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent due to data limitations.
  • Market: Carrarese 41.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.5% (Δ+0%) | Cesena 30.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: L
Pescara Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
41.47%
Draw
28.46%
Away Cesena
30.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.81
18.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Cesena
Power Score
21.81
18.69
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Cesena

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:25:02+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

99
Vincenzo Fiorillo
Vincenzo Fiorillo Goalkeeper
22
Stefano Mazzini
Stefano Mazzini Goalkeeper
1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
12
Giovanni Gabriele Garofani
Giovanni Gabriele Garofani Goalkeeper
5
Bartosz Salamon
Bartosz Salamon Defender
4
Julián Illanes Minucci
Julián Illanes Minucci Defender
3
Marco Imperiale
Marco Imperiale Defender
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Defender
73
Jonas Jakob Rouhi
Jonas Jakob Rouhi Defender
78
Tomasio Guercio
Tomasio Guercio Defender
37
Nicolo Calabrese
Nicolo Calabrese Defender
26
Fabio Ruggeri
Fabio Ruggeri Defender
18
Nicolás Adrián Schiavi
Nicolás Adrián Schiavi Midfielder
8
Filippo Melegoni
Filippo Melegoni Midfielder
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah Midfielder
44
Nikola Sekulov
Nikola Sekulov Midfielder
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Midfielder
17
Emanuele Zuelli
Emanuele Zuelli Midfielder
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Midfielder
25
Dachi Lordkipanidze
Dachi Lordkipanidze Midfielder
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Midfielder
20
Antonio Troise
Antonio Troise Midfielder
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino Midfielder
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Attacker
92
Ernesto Torregrossa
Ernesto Torregrossa Attacker
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto Attacker
9
Fabio Abiuso
Fabio Abiuso Attacker
28
Filippo Di Stefano
Filippo Di Stefano Attacker
80
Federico Accornero
Federico Accornero Attacker

Squad ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
40
Luca Ferretti
Luca Ferretti Goalkeeper
39
Niccolò Fontana
Niccolò Fontana Goalkeeper
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Defender
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta Defender
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
16
Peter Amoran
Peter Amoran Defender
18
Matteo Guidi
Matteo Guidi Defender
23
Vittorio Magni
Vittorio Magni Defender
6
Tommaso Arrigoni
Tommaso Arrigoni Midfielder
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
8
Gaetano Castrovilli
Gaetano Castrovilli Midfielder
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti Midfielder
70
Matteo Francesconi
Matteo Francesconi Midfielder
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
35
Davide Zamagni
Davide Zamagni Midfielder
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni Attacker
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Attacker
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Attacker
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Attacker

CONCLUSION

This Serie B showdown pits two mid-table contenders in a match ripe for drama at Stadio dei Marmi. Carrarese's power and form edges position them as marginal favorites, potentially leveraging home support to secure vital points. Cesena, trailing slightly in key metrics, will aim to disrupt with counterattacking intent amid sparse advanced stats. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, the contest hinges on execution and resilience. Expect a tactical affair where Carrarese's 3.1-point superiority might just tip the scales in a narrow victory, propelling them up the table.