Bologna vs Lecce preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara Sun, 12 Apr - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Bologna BOL
Lecce LEC
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 4:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bologna will face Lecce at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara for a Regular Season clash in the 2025/2026 Serie A campaign. The two sides enter this fixture occupying contrasting areas of the league standings. The home side, Bologna, currently sits in 8th place in the table. Their season form reads W4 D0 L2 from 6 matches. Conversely, Lecce finds themselves lower down the table in 18th position. The visiting side's season form reads W1 D0 L5 from 6 matches, reflecting their recent struggles to accumulate points. In their most recent fixture, Bologna secured a Win away against Cremonese. Meanwhile, Lecce suffered a Loss in their last match, which took place at home against Atalanta. Both clubs will look to execute their tactical plans in this upcoming league match.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bologna hold a +11.1 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Bologna sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Bologna show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Bologna have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Bologna carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Bologna hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Bologna 52.2% | Draw 27.3% | Lecce 20.5%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.88
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
Lazio Rank: 79 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 L
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Udinese Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Roma Rank: 84 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Como Rank: 84 L
Inter Rank: 90 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 6 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bologna
52.19%
Draw
27.27%
Away Lecce
20.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.06
67.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bologna
Lecce
Power Score
79.06
67.95
League Position
8
18
Global Rank
67
231

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bologna Lecce

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bologna BOL Home
19 matches
Lecce LEC Away
Match Record
11
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
11
Goals
29
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
29
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
F. Ravaglia
13 F. Ravaglia
J. Neto Lopes
17 J. Neto Lopes
M. Vitík
41 M. Vitík
J. Lucumí Bonilla
26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
J. Miranda González
33 J. Miranda González
R. Freuler
8 R. Freuler
N. Moro
6 N. Moro
F. Bernardeschi
10 F. Bernardeschi
S. Sohm
23 S. Sohm
J. Rowe
11 J. Rowe
S. Castro
9 S. Castro
W. Falcone
30 W. Falcone
C. Ndaba
3 C. Ndaba
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
J. Siebert
5 J. Siebert
D. Melo Veiga
17 D. Melo Veiga
O. Ngom
79 O. Ngom
Y. Ramadani
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Banda
19 L. Banda
S. Fofana
8 S. Fofana
S. Pierotti
50 S. Pierotti
W. Cheddira
99 W. Cheddira

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Capacity
36532
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Federico Ravaglia
Federico Ravaglia Goalkeeper
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Centre Forward
17
João Mário
João Mário Right Back
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Left Back
41
Martin Vitík
Martin Vitík Right Back
26
Jhon Lucumí
Jhon Lucumí Left Back
8
Remo Freuler
Remo Freuler Defensive Midfield
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro Defensive Midfield
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Right Wing
23
Simon Sohm
Simon Sohm Attacking Midfield
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe Left Wing

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Centre Forward
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Defensive Midfield
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Defensive Midfield
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Right Wing
8
Sadik Fofana
Sadik Fofana Attacking Midfield
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Right Back
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Right Back
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Left Back
3
Corrie Ndaba
Corrie Ndaba Left Back
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Left Wing

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Bologna holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Bologna a 11.1-point edge. Market probabilities are Bologna 52.2%, draw 27.3%, and Lecce 20.5%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.