Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal preview

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Riyadh Air Metropolitano Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Atlético Madrid ATM
Arsenal ARS
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Atlético Madrid host Arsenal in Champions League (Semi-finals) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Domestically, Atlético Madrid sit 14th in the table while Arsenal are 1th. Power ranking favours Arsenal by 5.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arsenal possess a 5.7-point power advantage, positioning them as the structurally superior side.
  • Form: Arsenal's form score of 37.11 surpasses Atlético Madrid's 32.17.
  • Squad: Arsenal top the league in 1st place, while Atlético Madrid sit 14th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both Atlético Madrid and Arsenal.
  • Transition: Transition strengths align with Arsenal's higher power and form scores.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats for both teams rely on low-confidence proxies without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG and related xVariable metrics are unavailable due to disabled add-on.
  • Market: Atlético Madrid 33.6% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 29.8% (Δ+0%) | Arsenal 36.6% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Barcelona Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: W
Club Brugge Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: D
Sporting CP Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: D
Kairat Rank: W
Inter Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atlético Madrid
33.59%
Draw
29.77%
Away Arsenal
36.64%

Movement

Changes since opening
Atlético Madrid
-0.24%
Draw
+0.04%
Arsenal
+0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.73
33.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atlético Madrid
Arsenal
Power Score
27.73
33.46
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atlético Madrid Arsenal

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atlético Madrid ATM Home
3 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:23:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Oblak
13 J. Oblak
M. Llorente Moreno
14 M. Llorente Moreno
M. Pubill Pagès
18 M. Pubill Pagès
R. Le Normand
24 R. Le Normand
M. Ruggeri
3 M. Ruggeri
G. Simeone
20 G. Simeone
J. Resurrección Merodio
6 J. Resurrección Merodio
J. de Souza Cardoso
5 J. de Souza Cardoso
N. González
23 N. González
A. Sørloth
9 A. Sørloth
J. Álvarez
19 J. Álvarez
D. Raya Martin
1 D. Raya Martin
P. Hincapié Reyna
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
G. dos Santos Magalhães
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
W. Saliba
2 W. Saliba
B. White
4 B. White
D. Rice
41 D. Rice
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
L. Trossard
19 L. Trossard
M. Ødegaard
8 M. Ødegaard
B. Saka
7 B. Saka
V. Gyökeres
14 V. Gyökeres

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 29, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Capacity
70460
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Jan Oblak
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper
6.74
23
Nico González
Nico González Midfielder
6.65
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
6.87
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez Attacker
7.69
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth Attacker
7.04
18
Marc Pubill
Marc Pubill Right Back
6.73
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Right Back
7.03
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Left Back
6.77
6
Koke
Koke Central Midfield
6.83
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Left Back
6.75
5
Johnny Cardoso
Johnny Cardoso Central Midfield
6.81

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
7.16
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Centre Forward
6.9
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Left Wing
7.12
4
Ben White
Ben White Right Back
6.67
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Defensive Midfield
7.34
7
Bukayo Saka
Bukayo Saka Right Wing
7.24
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Attacking Midfield
7.06
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Left Back
7.17
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Right Back
6.8
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Left Back
6.93
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Defensive Midfield
7.13

CONCLUSION

Arsenal's power and form superiority give them a marginal upper hand, but Atlético's home fortress and Simeone's knockout expertise could neutralize it in this semi-final opener. Expect a cautious, low-scoring battle where set-piece proxies hint at potential edges, though data limitations obscure full pictures. The Gunners' league-leading squad aims to seize initiative away, yet Madrid's defensive resolve often shines in ties like this. With everything to play for ahead of the Emirates return leg, a draw feels plausible, preserving tension. Midfield control and clinical finishing will prove decisive in shaping leg one's outcome.