Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Today - 6:00 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
Tottenham Hotspur TOT
KICKOFF : Today - 6:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Aston Villa host Tottenham Hotspur in Premier League (Regular Season) at Villa Park. Domestically, Aston Villa sit 5th in the table while Tottenham Hotspur are 18th. Power ranking favours Aston Villa by 7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa possesses a structural edge with a 90.42 power score and 7-point advantage over Tottenham Hotspur's 83.4.
  • Form: Aston Villa's form score stands at 15.5, superior to Tottenham Hotspur's 8.67.
  • Squad: Aston Villa occupies 5th in the league table, contrasting Tottenham Hotspur's 18th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data shows low confidence with xG unavailable and proxy metrics used.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG-based variables are unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Aston Villa 42.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.5% (Δ+0%) | Tottenham Hotspur 30.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Tottenham Hotspur R. De Zerbi
R. De Zerbi
1.79
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.71
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 85 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 84 D
West Ham United Rank: 84 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Chelsea Rank: 89 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Liverpool Rank: 92 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 25
25
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
42.93%
Draw
26.49%
Away Tottenham Hotspur
30.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.42
83.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
Power Score
90.42
83.4
League Position
5
18
Global Rank
10
41

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
49 matches
Tottenham Hotspur TOT Away
Match Record
14
Wins
25
10
Draws
10
25
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
82
82
Goals Conceded
47
-35
Goal Difference
+35
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:09:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
L. Bogarde
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
E. Buendía
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
O. Watkins
England
11 O. Watkins
A. Kinský
Czech Republic
31 A. Kinský
D. Spence
England
24 D. Spence
M. van de Ven
Netherlands
37 M. van de Ven
K. Danso
Austria
4 K. Danso
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
23 P. Porro Sauceda
Y. Bissouma
Mali
8 Y. Bissouma
R. Bentancur Colmán
Uruguay
30 R. Bentancur Colmán
J. Maddison
England
10 J. Maddison
C. Gallagher
England
22 C. Gallagher
R. Kolo Muani
France
39 R. Kolo Muani
R. de Andrade
Brazil
9 R. de Andrade

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
James Mainwaring
Wade Smith
Paul Tierney

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.92
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.83
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.72
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.77
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.18
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Midfielder
6.45
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.91
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Attacker
6.88
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Attacker
6.78
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.87
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

31
Antonín Kinský
Antonín Kinský Goalkeeper
6.7
4
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Defender
6.73
23
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
6.96
24
Djed Spence
Djed Spence Defender
6.54
37
Micky van de Ven
Micky van de Ven Defender
6.76
8
Yves Bissouma
Yves Bissouma Midfielder
6.6
22
Conor Gallagher
Conor Gallagher Midfielder
6.71
30
Rodrigo Bentancur
Rodrigo Bentancur Midfielder
6.85
9
Richarlison
Richarlison Attacker
6.95
10
James Maddison
James Maddison Attacker
7.59
39
Randal Kolo Muani
Randal Kolo Muani Attacker
6.51

CONCLUSION

Aston Villa enter this fixture as clear favorites, leveraging their superior power rating, stronger form, and loftier league position against a Tottenham side in dire straits at 18th. The 7-point power gap and home venue at Villa Park set the stage for Villa to assert dominance early. Tottenham's poor form score offers little optimism for a turnaround, though their resilience in transitions could test Villa's backline if opportunities arise. Absent detailed efficiency or set piece insights, the focus remains on Villa's overall cohesion driving a positive result. Expect Villa to capitalize on their advantages for a convincing display.