Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest preview

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Villa Park Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Aston Villa AVL
Nottingham Forest NFO
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 1

CONTEXT

Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park in the second leg of the Europa League semi-finals, trailing 0-1 on aggregate after Forest's narrow first-leg win at the City Ground seven days ago. Villa, powered by a superior rating of 90.03 against Forest's 88.34, hold a 1.7-point edge that underscores their structural depth and home advantage in this high-stakes clash. Yet, Forest's recent form score of 43.56 slightly outpaces Villa's 41.72, reflecting the visitors' resilience that secured their lead. Unai Emery's Villa must channel the electric atmosphere to breach Nuno Espirito Santo's organized defense, leveraging quick transitions and midfield control. With limited advanced metrics available, the focus shifts to Villa's urgency to score first while avoiding counters. Forest, comfortable with their advantage, will aim to frustrate and hit on the break, setting up a tense tactical battle for a Champions League spot.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa hold a 1.7-point power advantage over Nottingham Forest.
  • Form: Nottingham Forest lead Aston Villa in form scores at 43.56 versus 41.72.
  • Squad: No specific squad news or availability details provided for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: Aston Villa hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Aston Villa 54.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.6% (Δ+0%) | Nottingham Forest 20.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Bologna Rank: 78 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Porto Rank: 87 W
Porto Rank: 87 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
54.78%
Draw
24.57%
Away Nottingham Forest
20.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.03
88.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
90.03
88.34
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
11
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Nottingham Forest

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
15 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
28
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:59+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Martínez
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
2 M. Cash
E. Konsa Ngoyo
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
P. Francisco Torres
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
12 L. Digne
L. Bogarde
26 L. Bogarde
Y. Tielemans
8 Y. Tielemans
J. Sancho
19 J. Sancho
E. Buendía
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
27 M. Rogers
O. Watkins
11 O. Watkins
S. Ortega Moreno
27 S. Ortega Moreno
N. Williams
3 N. Williams
F. Rodrigues
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Milenković
31 N. Milenković
Z. Abbott
44 Z. Abbott
J. Mcatee
24 J. Mcatee
E. Anderson
8 E. Anderson
N. Domínguez
16 N. Domínguez
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
I. da Cruz
19 I. da Cruz
C. Wood
11 C. Wood

General Information

Date & Time
May 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 1
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
7.12
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Centre Forward
6.81
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Left Back
6.83
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Right Back
6.7
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Right Back
7.08
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Defensive Midfield
7.23
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Attacking Midfield
6.88
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Left Back
6.75
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Defensive Midfield
6.75
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Left Wing
7.04
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Right Wing
6.85

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.94
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
7.14
24
James McAtee
James McAtee Midfielder
7.17
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.79
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.1
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Left Back
7.04
4
Morato
Morato Left Back
6.89
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Central Midfield
7.18
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Central Midfield
7.02
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Right Back
6.95
44
Zach Abbott
Zach Abbott Right Back
6.69

CONCLUSION

Aston Villa's home strength and power edge position them well to overturn the 0-1 deficit, but Forest's form and first-leg grit demand caution. Expect Villa to dominate possession and press aggressively early, testing Forest's backline in transitions. If Villa convert chances efficiently, they advance; otherwise, Forest's counter-threat could seal progression. The 1.7-point structural gap favors the hosts, yet the visitors' momentum adds intrigue to this semi-final decider.