Arsenal vs Newcastle United preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Emirates Stadium Today - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Arsenal ARS
Newcastle United NEW
KICKOFF : Today - 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Arsenal host Newcastle United in Premier League (Regular Season) at Emirates Stadium. Domestically, Arsenal sit 2th in the table while Newcastle United are 14th. Power ranking favours Arsenal by 10.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Arsenal hold a 10.2-point power advantage and sit second compared to Newcastle's 14th in the Premier League.
  • Form: Arsenal's form score of 29.11 significantly outpaces Newcastle's 17.61.
  • Squad: Arsenal's higher power score of 31.64 reflects squad superiority over Newcastle's 21.49.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Limited transition data provided for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece metrics unavailable due to lack of xG data and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for analysis.
  • Market: Arsenal 65.7% (Δ-0.5%) | Draw 19.9% (Δ+-0%) | Newcastle United 14.5% (Δ+0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Everton Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: W
Chelsea Rank: W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
Crystal Palace Rank: L
Sunderland Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Everton Rank: L
35
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
35 - 9 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arsenal
65.68%
Draw
19.88%
Away Newcastle United
14.45%

Movement

Changes since opening
Arsenal
-0.5%
Draw
-0.01%
Newcastle United
+0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.64
21.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arsenal
Newcastle United
Power Score
31.64
21.49
League Position
2
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arsenal Newcastle United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arsenal ARS Home
53 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
35
Wins
9
9
Draws
9
9
Losses
35
Goals
92
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
92
+58
Goal Difference
-58
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:08:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
C. Mosquera
Spain
3 C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
P. Hincapié Reyna
Ecuador
5 P. Hincapié Reyna
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
D. Rice
England
41 D. Rice
C. Madueke
England
20 C. Madueke
M. Ødegaard
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
E. Eze
England
10 E. Eze
K. Havertz
Germany
29 K. Havertz
A. Ramsdale
England
32 A. Ramsdale
L. Hall
England
3 L. Hall
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
K. Trippier
England
2 K. Trippier
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
S. Tonali
Italy
8 S. Tonali
L. Miley
England
67 L. Miley
H. Barnes
England
11 H. Barnes
W. Osula
Denmark
18 W. Osula
A. Elanga
Sweden
20 A. Elanga

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Emirates Stadium
Capacity
60704
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
Tim Wood
Wade Smith
Steve Martin

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
6.76
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
6.89
3
Cristhian Mosquera
Cristhian Mosquera Defender
6.84
5
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.86
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
7.21
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
6.97
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
7.02
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
7.36
10
Eberechi Eze
Eberechi Eze Attacker
7.43
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Attacker
6.79
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Attacker
6.68
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

32
Aaron Ramsdale
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper
6.59
2
Kieran Trippier
Kieran Trippier Defender
6.69
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Defender
6.9
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.89
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.98
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.94
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.33
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Midfielder
6.99
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes Attacker
6.7
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.68
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga Attacker
6.62

CONCLUSION

Arsenal enter this Emirates showdown as overwhelming favorites, leveraging their second-place standing, superior power and form metrics against a struggling 14th-placed Newcastle. The Gunners' 10.2-point edge underscores a mismatch ripe for exploitation at home. While set-piece and efficiency insights are absent, the raw data paints Arsenal as primed for victory. Newcastle must defy projections and summon resilience to salvage anything, but Arsenal's dominance suggests a comfortable outcome. Expect the hosts to capitalize on their structural advantages in this Premier League encounter.