Almería vs Mirandés preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Today - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
Mirandés MIR
KICKOFF : Today - 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Almería hosts Mirandés at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in a La Liga 2 regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. Perched in 3rd place, Almería wields a commanding power score of 70.45, outpacing Mirandés' 59.54 by 10.9 points and earning designation as the stronger team. Form metrics further bolster the hosts, with 28.56 eclipsing the visitors' 18.28, hinting at sustained momentum. League standings underscore this chasm, as Mirandés languishes in 20th. Home advantage amplifies Almería's edge in a venue known for fervent support. Absent detailed efficiency or set-piece data due to unavailable xG, analysis hinges on structural superiority and potential transitional prowess. Projections mirror this disparity, positioning Almería dominantly. The Andalusians aim to extend their promotion push against beleaguered opponents desperate for points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería sits 3rd in La Liga 2 while Mirandés occupies 20th place.
  • Form: Almería's form score stands at 28.56, superior to Mirandés' 18.28.
  • Squad: Almería's squad power score of 70.45 exceeds Mirandés' 59.54 by 10.9 points.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided in available datasets.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable as proxy metrics yield low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent due to disabled add-on for this fixture.
  • Market: Almería 64.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.9% (Δ+0%) | Mirandés 15% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 68 L
Leganés Rank: 64 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Castellón Rank: 67 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Córdoba Rank: 65 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 6 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
64.09%
Draw
20.91%
Away Mirandés
15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.45
59.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Mirandés
Power Score
70.45
59.54
League Position
3
20
Global Rank
193
497

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Mirandés

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
15 matches
Mirandés MIR Away
Match Record
7
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
23
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:08:22+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
1 A. Fernández Moreno
J. Brandariz Movilla
21 J. Brandariz Movilla
R. Ely
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
S. Dzodic
29 S. Dzodic
D. Lopy
17 D. Lopy
L. Carrilho Baptistão
12 L. Carrilho Baptistão
S. Arribas Calvo
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
J. Palomares Pulpillo
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
J. Cabello Trujillo
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
J. Gutiérrez Martínez
22 J. Gutiérrez Martínez
H. Novoa Ramos
2 H. Novoa Ramos
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
T. Helguera Merello Volante
6 T. Helguera Merello Volante
R. Bauzà Sureda
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
F. Hernandez Coarasa
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
A. Houary Jeddoub
29 A. Houary Jeddoub
U. del Cura Urra
48 U. del Cura Urra

General Information

Date & Time
May 04, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.99
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.86
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.75
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.62
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Right Wing
6.85
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Defensive Midfield
6.87
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.85
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
7.17
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.83
21
Chumi
Chumi Right Back
6.46

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
6.75
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Midfielder
7.27
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Midfielder
6.68
29
Ali Houary
Ali Houary Attacker
6.81
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Attacker
6.95
2
Hugo Novoa
Hugo Novoa Right Back
6.56
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Left Back
6.79
6
Thiago Helguera
Thiago Helguera Central Midfield
6.62
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Left Back
6.76
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Central Midfield
6.85
22
Juan Gutiérrez
Juan Gutiérrez Right Back
6.73

CONCLUSION

Almería approaches this home clash with clear superiority, rooted in 3rd-place standing, elevated power score, and robust form against Mirandés' 20th-position struggles. The 10.9-point power gap signals potential dominance, amplified by venue familiarity. Though set-piece and efficiency insights lag, overarching metrics favor the hosts decisively. Mirandés must defy projections leaning heavily toward Almería to salvage anything. Expect structured play from the leaders to exploit weaknesses, propelling their campaign forward while relegation foes falter. This matchup crystallizes league hierarchies.