Mexico vs England preview

2026 World Cup, World
Mexico City Stadium Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
World Cup
Mexico MEX
England ENG
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 12:00 AM
Round of 16

CONTEXT

Mexico welcomes England to Mexico City Stadium for a World Cup Round of 16 clash in the 2026 season. The hosts carry a power score of 41.48 against the visitors 36.3, creating a 5.2-point edge that marks Mexico as the stronger side on paper. Domestic league positions show both sides sitting first in their respective standings, though the cup format shifts focus to knockout execution. Form scores sit close together with Mexico at 33.25 and England at 31.42, suggesting neither side enters with overwhelming momentum. Venue familiarity could play a role for the home team while England looks to impose its structure on foreign soil. Limited efficiency and transition data leave set-piece details as the main area still requiring deeper insight before kickoff.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Mexico holds a 5.2-point power advantage over England at Mexico City Stadium.
  • Form: Mexico posts a form score of 33.25 while England sits at 31.42.
  • Squad: Both teams currently occupy first place in their domestic league tables.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics remain unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition phase data is not provided in current records.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece evaluation carries low confidence and relies on proxy data.
  • xVariable: Mexico is designated the stronger team by power metrics.
  • Market: Mexico 31% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.7% (Δ+0%) | England 39.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Mexico J. Aguirre Onaindía
J. Aguirre Onaindía
VS
England T. Tuchel
T. Tuchel
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ecuador Rank: W
Czech Republic Rank: W
Korea Republic Rank: W
South Africa Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Congo DR Rank: W
Panama Rank: W
Ghana Rank: D
Croatia Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mexico
31.02%
Draw
29.7%
Away England
39.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
41.48
36.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mexico
England
Power Score
41.48
36.3
League Position
1
1
Global Rank
15
4

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mexico — Opponent-weighted form score
England — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mexico England

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mexico MEX Home
0 matches
England ENG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-05T00:02:22+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Rangel Aguilar
1 J. Rangel Aguilar
J. Sánchez Ramos
2 J. Sánchez Ramos
C. Montes Castro
3 C. Montes Castro
J. Vásquez Ibarra
5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
L. Romo Barrón
7 L. Romo Barrón
É. Lira Méndez
6 É. Lira Méndez
G. Mora Zambrano
19 G. Mora Zambrano
R. Alvarado Hernández
25 R. Alvarado Hernández
R. Jiménez Rodríguez
9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
J. Quiñones Quiñones
16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
J. Pickford
1 J. Pickford
N. O'Reilly
3 N. O'Reilly
M. Guehi
6 M. Guehi
E. Konsa Ngoyo
2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
D. Spence
25 D. Spence
D. Rice
4 D. Rice
E. Anderson
8 E. Anderson
A. Gordon
18 A. Gordon
J. Bellingham
10 J. Bellingham
C. Madueke
20 C. Madueke
H. Kane
9 H. Kane

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 06, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium
Mexico City Stadium
Capacity
87523
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alireza Faghani
G. Lakrindis
Andrew Lindsay
Jalal Jayed

Expected Lineup

Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

1
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel Goalkeeper
7.08
9
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez Centre Forward
7.08
16
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones Attacker
7.65
25
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado Attacker
7.55
2
Jorge Sánchez
Jorge Sánchez Right Back
7.13
3
César Montes
César Montes Right Back
7.03
5
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Left Back
6.98
6
Érik Lira
Érik Lira Central Midfield
6.96
7
Luis Romo
Luis Romo Central Midfield
7.22
19
Gilberto Mora
Gilberto Mora Central Midfield
6.75
23
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo Left Back
6.78
Referee : Alireza Faghani

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.73
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Centre Forward
7.69
2
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Right Back
6.87
3
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Left Back
6.82
4
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Defensive Midfield
7.48
6
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Left Back
7.38
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Defensive Midfield
7.43
10
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham Attacking Midfield
7.55
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Right Wing
7.06
25
Djed Spence
Djed Spence Right Back
6.75
18
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon Left Wing
6.83

CONCLUSION

Mexico enters as the slight power favorite thanks to home status and a modest rating edge, yet the narrow form gap keeps the contest finely balanced. Both sides share top domestic positions, which underscores squad depth but offers little direct guidance for cup knockout play. Set-piece information stays limited, forcing reliance on broader structural indicators rather than specialized metrics. England will aim to neutralize the venue factor through organized defending and quick counters. Mexico must convert its power advantage into sustained pressure without overextending. The outcome will likely hinge on which team adapts faster to the neutral-like intensity of a World Cup last-16 tie.