Ecuador vs Germany preview

2026 World Cup, World
New York New Jersey Stadium Thu, 25 Jun - 8:00 PM
World Cup
Ecuador ECU
2 1
Germany GER
Full Time Thu, 25 Jun 8:00 PM
Round 3 Group Stage
Nilson Angulo - 9'
Gonzalo Plata - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Leroy Sané - 2'

CONTEXT

Ecuador secured a 2-1 victory over Germany after a balanced first half that ended 1-1. Germany controlled possession with 61 percent but Ecuador generated superior quality with 1.99 expected goals against 0.97. The stronger side on paper fell short as Ecuador converted opportunities efficiently in the second half. No red cards occurred and the match remained even at the interval. Pre-match indicators showed minimal deviation of 4.4 percent with the outcome consistent for the home side. Ecuador claimed the win despite lower ball dominance and Germany could not overcome the xG gap. The result reflected the underlying metrics without major disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ecuador recorded a minimal 4.4 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected performance levels.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with home xG of 1.99 and away xG of 0.97.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Ecuador met xG expectations by claiming victory at the final score of 2-1.
  • Event impact: No notable events shifted momentum beyond standard second-half play.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left the match free from disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Penso
T. Penso
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Mayo
B. Mayo
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Nesbitt
K. Nesbitt
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Kawana-Waugh
C. Kawana-Waugh
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ecuador S. Beccacece
S. Beccacece
VS
Germany J. Nagelsmann
J. Nagelsmann
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Curacao Rank: D
Côte d'Ivoire Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Côte d'Ivoire Rank: W
Curacao Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ecuador
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Germany
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ecuador
+0.89%
Draw
-0.89%
Germany
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
10.37
43.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ecuador
Germany
Power Score
10.37
43.7
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
23
10

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ecuador — Opponent-weighted form score
Germany — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ecuador Germany

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ecuador

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Germany

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ecuador ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Germany
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.08
22.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.62
23.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ecuador +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Germany -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ecuador
Germany
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ecuador
vs
Germany
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ecuador Germany
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
42%
11%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.83 vs -0.11
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ecuador Germany
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
11%
42%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.11 vs -0.83
Ecuador
Germany
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ecuador
vs
Germany
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ecuador Germany
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ecuador 0.18
Germany 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ecuador Germany
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ecuador 0.02
Germany 0.05
Ecuador
Germany
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ECU had peak pressure around 79'.
  • GER started the game with stronger pressure.
ECU Pressure GER Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ECU reached the top pressure at 79' (70.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ecuador ECU Home
1 matches
Germany GER Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
0
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-26T00:00:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
H. Galíndez
Ecuador
1 H. Galíndez
A. Franco Palma
Substitution
Ecuador
21 A. Franco Palma
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
6 W. Pacho Tenorio
P. Hincapié Reyna
Substitution
Ecuador
3 P. Hincapié Reyna
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
9 J. Zamora
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
23 (C) M. Caicedo Corozo
P. Vite Uca
Ecuador
15 P. Vite Uca
N. Angulo Ramírez
Substitution
Ecuador
20 N. Angulo Ramírez
G. Plata Jiménez
Ecuador
19 G. Plata Jiménez
E. Valencia Lastra
Substitution
Ecuador
13 E. Valencia Lastra
M. Neuer
Germany
1 M. Neuer
A. Rüdiger
Germany
2 A. Rüdiger
J. Tah
Germany
4 J. Tah
J. Kimmich
Substitution
Germany
6 (C) J. Kimmich
D. Raum
Germany
22 D. Raum
A. Pavlović
Substitution
Germany
5 A. Pavlović
F. Nmecha
Substitution
Germany
23 F. Nmecha
L. Sané
Germany
19 L. Sané
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
17 F. Wirtz
J. Musiala
Germany
10 J. Musiala
K. Havertz
Substitution
Germany
7 K. Havertz

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 25, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
New York New Jersey Stadium
Capacity
82500
Attendance
80663
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tori Penso
Brooke Mayo
Katie Nesbitt
Campbell-Kirk Kawana-Waugh

Statistics

Possession
ECU
43%
GER
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 3
40 Dangerous attacks 56
39 Possession 61
3 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

56 Ball Safe 65
5 Goal Kicks 2
5 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 21
9 Successful Headers 10
2 Assists 1
18 Dribble Attempts 22
8 Successful Dribbles 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32

Attacking

102 Attacks 113
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

50 Long Passes 37
379 Passes 592
313 Successful Passes 517
83 Successful Passes Percentage 87
7 Key Passes 9
24 Successful Long Passes 17
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

2 Saves 1
26 Tackles 20
12 Interceptions 4
53 Duels Won 51

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Tori Penso

Starting XI ▼

1
Hernán Galíndez
Hernán Galíndez Goalkeeper
6.89
3
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié Defender
6.31
7
Pervis Estupiñán
Pervis Estupiñán
Defender71'
6.62
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
7.18
6
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
7.04
21
Alan Franco
Alan Franco Defender
6.66
17
Angelo Preciado
Angelo Preciado
Defender64'
6.53
9
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Midfielder
7.07
2
Félix Torres
Félix Torres
Defender85'
6.47
15
Pedro Vite
Pedro Vite Midfielder
7.54
20
Nilson Angulo
Nilson Angulo Midfielder
7.57
16
Jordy Caicedo
Jordy Caicedo
Attacker85'
6.47
23
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo (C) Midfielder
7
13
Enner Valencia
Enner Valencia Attacker
6.64
11
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez
Attacker64'
7.06
19
Gonzalo Plata
Gonzalo Plata Attacker
6.92
Referee : Tori Penso

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper
6.36
2
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Defender
6.5
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
6.61
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich (C) Defender
6.75
24
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw
Defender60'
6.54
5
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
6.24
16
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller
Midfielder46'
6.58
19
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Midfielder
6.86
22
David Raum
David Raum Midfielder
6.61
23
Felix Nmecha
Felix Nmecha Midfielder
5.8
14
Maximilian Beier
Maximilian Beier
Attacker64'
6.37
7
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz Attacker
7.02
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav
Attacker60'
6.92
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Attacker
6.85
17
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Attacker
7.4
13
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß
Midfielder73'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gonzalo Plata
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jordy Caicedo → Nilson Angulo
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Félix Torres → John Yeboah
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Gonzalo Plata
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
77'
73'
Event
Pascal Groß → Florian Wirtz
8th Substitution
Event
Pervis Estupiñán → Piero Hincapié
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Angelo Preciado → Alan Franco
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Kevin Rodríguez → Enner Valencia
6th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Maximilian Beier → Felix Nmecha
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Malick Thiaw → Joshua Kimmich 
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Deniz Undav → Kai Havertz
3rd Substitution
Event
Alan Franco
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Angelo Stiller → Aleksandar Pavlovic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kai Havertz
Penalty cancelled
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Piero Hincapié
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'
Event
Nilson Angulo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
9'
2'
Event
Leroy Sané
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Gonzalo Plata wins a free kick for Ecuador on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Groß (Germany).
90
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Groß from Germany misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high.
90
Attempt Attempt
Deniz Undav from Germany attempts a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it goes close and misses to the left. Pascal Groß provides the assist.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
89
Update Update
Gonzalo Plata commits a foul for Ecuador.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gonzalo Plata of Ecuador receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
89
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany on the left wing.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Germany after Pervis Estupiñán concedes.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Pervis Estupiñán of Ecuador.
87
Update Update
Maximilian Beier wins a free kick for Germany on the right wing.
86
Update Update
Malick Thiaw from Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Update Update
Offside called against Ecuador. Kevin Rodríguez is caught in an offside position.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Jordy Caicedo comes on for Nilson Angulo.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Félix Torres comes on for John Yeboah.
85
Update Update
Pedro Vite from Ecuador is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Maximilian Beier commits a foul for Germany.
84
Update Update
Kevin Rodríguez's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Pedro Vite's cross.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ecuador takes the lead 2-1 against Germany as Gonzalo Plata scores with a left-footed shot from very close range after a corner.
77
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Rodríguez's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by John Yeboah, who provided a headed pass.
77
Corner Corner
Ecuador wins a corner after Angelo Stiller concedes.
76
Update Update
Gonzalo Plata commits a foul for Ecuador.
75
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany in the defensive half.
75
Attempt Attempt
Gonzalo Plata (Ecuador) misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from very close range, sending it high and wide to the right. Moisés Caicedo provided the assist.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Pascal Groß comes on for Florian Wirtz.
73
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Moisés Caicedo from Ecuador took a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Pervis Estupiñán comes on for Piero Hincapié.
71
Update Update
Delay over. They are ready to continue.
69
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Ecuador is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw of Germany.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Ángelo Preciado comes on for Alan Franco.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Maximilian Beier comes on for Felix Nmecha.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Kevin Rodríguez comes on for Enner Valencia.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ecuador: Kevin Rodríguez comes on for Enner Valencia.
62
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Enner Valencia's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Manuel Neuer. The assist came from John Yeboah.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Malick Thiaw comes on for Joshua Kimmich.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Deniz Undav comes on for Kai Havertz.
59
Update Update
Willian Pacho from Ecuador is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
59
Update Update
Leroy Sané commits a foul for Germany.
58
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo commits a foul for Ecuador.
58
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany in the attacking half.
56
Update Update
Nilson Angulo from Ecuador is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
56
Update Update
Jonathan Tah commits a foul for Germany.
54
Corner Corner
Moisés Caicedo from Ecuador misses a header from a tough angle on the left, sending it close but to the left. The attempt was assisted by John Yeboah, who provided a cross after a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Ecuador wins a corner after Antonio Rüdiger concedes.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alan Franco from Ecuador receives a yellow card.
49
Update Update
Joel Ordóñez wins a free kick for Ecuador on the right wing.
49
Update Update
David Raum commits a foul for Germany.
47
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Germany.
46
Update Update
Joel Ordóñez of Ecuador concedes a penalty for a foul in the penalty area.
46
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Germany as Kai Havertz is fouled in the penalty area.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 1-1 between Ecuador and Germany.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Germany: Angelo Stiller comes on for Aleksandar Pavlovic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz's right-footed shot from the right side of the box for Germany is blocked.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
44
Update Update
Enner Valencia from Ecuador is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
44
Update Update
Foul by Aleksandar Pavlovic of Germany.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aleksandar Pavlovic of Germany receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Piero Hincapié of Ecuador.
43
Update Update
Leroy Sané wins a free kick for Germany in the attacking half.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Piero Hincapié of Ecuador receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
38
Attempt Attempt
Felix Nmecha's right-footed shot from outside the box for Germany is blocked. Leroy Sané provided the assist.
38
Update Update
Delay in the match in Germany.
38
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
35
Attempt Attempt
Jamal Musiala's left-footed shot from the left side of the box for Germany is blocked.
35
Corner Corner
Germany wins a corner after Joel Ordóñez concedes.
32
Attempt Attempt
Enner Valencia's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Nilson Angulo.
30
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
27
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
25
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Kai Havertz's header from the center of the box is saved.
21
Corner Corner
Ecuador wins a corner after Joshua Kimmich concedes.
20
Update Update
Alan Franco commits a foul for Ecuador.
20
Update Update
Jamal Musiala wins a free kick for Germany in the defensive half.
19
Update Update
Piero Hincapié commits a foul for Ecuador.
19
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich of Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Nilson Angulo commits a foul for Ecuador.
16
Update Update
Gonzalo Plata commits a foul for Ecuador.
16
Update Update
Aleksandar Pavlovic of Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Aleksandar Pavlovic from Germany wins a free kick on the right wing.
14
Attempt Attempt
Felix Nmecha from Germany misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
12
Update Update
Gonzalo Plata commits a foul for Ecuador.
12
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich from Germany wins a free kick in the defensive half.
10
Update Update
Alan Franco commits a foul for Ecuador.
10
Update Update
Felix Nmecha from Germany is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nilson Angulo scores for Ecuador with a right-footed shot from outside the box. The match is now 1-1 against Germany.
8
Update Update
Enner Valencia from Ecuador wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Jamal Musiala commits a foul for Germany.
7
Update Update
Nilson Angulo commits a foul for Ecuador.
7
Update Update
Joshua Kimmich from Germany is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
7
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz's right-footed shot from outside the box for Germany is blocked.
6
Update Update
David Raum commits a foul for Germany.
6
Update Update
John Yeboah from Ecuador wins a free kick in the defensive half.
5
Attempt Attempt
Florian Wirtz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Leroy Sane scores with a left-footed shot.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Leroy Sane scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Florian Wirtz.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Tori Penso.

CONCLUSION

Ecuador produced a measured performance to overcome Germany despite conceding possession dominance. The 2-1 scoreline emerged from higher quality chances created throughout both halves. Germany pressed forward after the interval yet could not close the expected goals deficit. Ecuador maintained composure following the 1-1 halftime mark and added the decisive goal without relying on set-piece fortune. The absence of cards kept the contest open and flowing until the end. Overall the metrics supported the winner and highlighted efficient finishing from the home attack. This result underscores how chance quality can outweigh territorial control in determining the outcome.