England vs Croatia preview
World Cup
Croatia
CRO
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
England secured a 4-2 victory over Croatia after a balanced first half that ended 2-2. The stronger side asserted dominance in the second period to claim the win. Expected goals heavily favored England at 3.11 against Croatia's 0.81, reflecting a 2.3 differential that aligned with the final outcome. Possession remained close throughout with England holding 52 percent to Croatia's 48 percent. No red cards disrupted proceedings for either side. The result proved consistent with underlying metrics and England's pre-match positioning as the superior team. Structural elements showed notable deviation from initial projections yet the match flowed without major interruptions.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Final score: England 4-2 Croatia. England showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall expectations for both sides.
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xG alignment: Outcome remained consistent with xG metrics throughout the contest.
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Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final result favoring England.
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xG expectations: England posted 3.11 xG compared to Croatia's 0.81 for a 2.3 differential.
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Event impact: No second half adjustments altered the established match dynamics.
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Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort the flow of play.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
England
Croatia
Movement
Changes since opening
England
Croatia
Team Power Ranking
i
62.96
29.63
England
Croatia
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
England
Croatia
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
England
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
England
England
Croatia
England
Croatia
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
England
England
Croatia
England
Croatia
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ENG had peak pressure around 65'.
- ENG started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-06-18T00:00:37+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
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vs
Ghana
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Kickoff: Tue, 23 Jun - 8:00 PM
Venue: Boston Stadium
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vs
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Kickoff: Tue, 23 Jun - 11:00 PM
Venue: Toronto Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary