Congo DR vs Uzbekistan preview

2026 World Cup, World
Atlanta Stadium Sat, 27 Jun - 11:30 PM
World Cup
Full Time Sat, 27 Jun 11:30 PM
Round 3 Group Stage
Yoane Wissa - 68' (P), 90+1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Congo DR secured a 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan after trailing at the interval. The halftime score stood at 0-1 with Uzbekistan ahead. Congo DR recorded 2.29 expected goals while Uzbekistan managed just 0.12. Possession favored Congo DR at 58 percent against 42 percent for the visitors. No red cards were issued during the contest. Uzbekistan entered as the stronger side yet Congo DR produced the match winner. The result proved consistent with underlying metrics and reflected a significant performance deviation from pre-match projections for the home side. Congo DR completed the turnaround through second-half adjustments that aligned with their expected goal superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Congo DR produced a 43.4 percent significant deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: Final outcome stayed consistent with the 2.29 to 0.12 expected goal split.
  • Market alignment: Result matched pre-match market projections without notable variance.
  • xG expectations: Congo DR generated 2.29 expected goals against Uzbekistan's 0.12.
  • Event impact: Congo DR overcame the 0-1 halftime deficit to claim the 3-1 win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Zwayer
F. Zwayer
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Robert Kempter
Robert Kempter
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Christian Dietz
Christian Dietz
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Hernández Hernández
A. Hernández Hernández
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Congo DR S. Desabre
S. Desabre
VS
Uzbekistan F. Cannavaro
F. Cannavaro
0.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Colombia Rank: L
Portugal Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portugal Rank: L
Colombia Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Congo DR
56.63%
Draw
24.75%
Away Uzbekistan
18.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Congo DR
-41.26%
Draw
+22.83%
Uzbekistan
+18.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.04
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
Power Score
27.04
33.33
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
46
50

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Congo DR Opponent-weighted form score
Uzbekistan Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Congo DR Uzbekistan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Congo DR

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Uzbekistan

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Congo DR ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Uzbekistan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
4.15
3.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
3.78
4.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Congo DR +0.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Uzbekistan -0.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Congo DR
vs
Uzbekistan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Congo DR Uzbekistan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
46%
41%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.06 vs -0.05
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Congo DR Uzbekistan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
41%
46%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.05 vs -0.06
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Congo DR
vs
Uzbekistan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Congo DR Uzbekistan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Congo DR Uzbekistan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • COD had peak pressure around 86'.
  • UZB started the game with stronger pressure.
COD Pressure UZB Pressure
Pressure Index: COD reached the top pressure at 86' (79.28).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Nematov
Uzbekistan
12 A. Nematov
J. O'rozov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
26 J. O'rozov
R. Ashurmatov
Uzbekistan
5 R. Ashurmatov
S. Nasrullayev
Uzbekistan
13 S. Nasrullayev
A. Mozgovoy
Substitution
Uzbekistan
6 A. Mozgovoy
O. Shukurov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
7 O. Shukurov
K. Alidjanov
Uzbekistan
3 K. Alidjanov
A. Fayzullayev
Substitution
Uzbekistan
D. Khamdamov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
17 D. Khamdamov

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 27, 2026, 11:30 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 3 · Group Stage
Stadium
Atlanta Stadium
Capacity
71000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Felix Zwayer
Robert Kempter
Christian Dietz
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández

Statistics

Possession
COD
57%
UZB
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 3
54 Dangerous attacks 45
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

79 Ball Safe 71
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Kicks 15
16 Goal Attempts 3
8 Substitutions 6
26 Throwins 23
2 Successful Headers 5
1 Assists 1
0 Injuries 2
23 Dribble Attempts 16
11 Successful Dribbles 6
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

145 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

59 Long Passes 59
487 Passes 355
401 Successful Passes 269
82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
14 Key Passes 2
28 Successful Long Passes 21
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

1 Saves 1
20 Tackles 29
7 Interceptions 12
58 Duels Won 64

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI

1
Lionel Mpasi-Nzau
Lionel Mpasi-Nzau Goalkeeper
6.31
2
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
6.22
4
Axel Tuanzebe
Axel Tuanzebe Defender
6.27
22
Chancel Mbemba
6.27
26
Arthur Masuaku
Arthur Masuaku Defender
6.23
12
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe
Defender83'
7
Nathanaël Mbuku
Nathanaël Mbuku Midfielder
6.62
13
Meschack Elia
Meschack Elia
Attacker72'
8
Samuel Moutoussamy
Samuel Moutoussamy Midfielder
6.26
6
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Midfielder72'
9
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
6.53
10
Théo Bongonda
Théo Bongonda
Midfielder72'
14
Noah Sadiki
Noah Sadiki Midfielder
6.42
17
Cédric Bakambu
Cédric Bakambu Attacker
6.2
19
Fiston Mayele
Fiston Mayele
Attacker51'
20
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa Attacker
2
6.32
Referee : Felix Zwayer

Starting XI

12
Abduvokhid Nematov
Abduvokhid Nematov Goalkeeper
6.55
2
Abdukodir Khusanov
6.78
5
Rustam Ashurmatov
Rustam Ashurmatov Defender
6.97
26
Jakhongir Urozov
Jakhongir Urozov Defender
6.47
21
Igor Sergeev
Igor Sergeev
Attacker82'
3
Khozhiakbar Alizhonov
Khozhiakbar Alizhonov Midfielder
6.46
6
Akmal Mozgovoy
Akmal Mozgovoy Midfielder
6.98
8
Jamshid Iskanderov
Jamshid Iskanderov
Midfielder82'
7
Otabek Shukurov
Otabek Shukurov Midfielder
6.39
9
Odildzhon Khamrobekov
Odildzhon Khamrobekov
Midfielder59'
13
Sherzod Nasrullaev
Sherzod Nasrullaev Midfielder
6.69
14
Eldor Shomurodov
7.39
17
Dostonbek Khamdamov
Dostonbek Khamdamov Attacker
6.62
19
Aziz Ganiev
Aziz Ganiev
Midfielder59'
22
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
6.83
11
Oston Urunov
Oston Urunov
Midfielder73'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Event
Joris Kayembe Arthur Masuaku
10th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Jamshid Iskanderov Akmal Mozgovoy
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Igor Sergeev Jakhongir Urozov
9th Substitution
Event
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
73'
Event
Oston Urunov Abbosbek Fayzullaev
7th Substitution
Event
Théo Bongonda Brian Cipenga
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Meschack Elia Nathanaël Mbuku
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Ngal'ayel Mukau Samuel Moutoussamy
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Penalty / 1st Penalty
68'
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
62'
59'
Event
Aziz Ganiev Dostonbek Khamdamov
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Odildzhon Khamrobekov Otabek Shukurov
3rd Substitution
Event
Fiston Mayele Cédric Bakambu
1st Substitution
51'
48'
Event
Sherzod Nasrullaev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+5'
43'
Event
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Goal disallowed
18'
10'
Event
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Théo Bongonda from Congo DR misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Joris Kayembe provided the assist with a cross after a fast break.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ngal'ayel Mukau from Congo DR with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Corner Corner
Uzbekistan is awarded a corner after Aaron Wan-Bissaka concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Fiston Mayele from Congo DR misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending the ball to the left. Aaron Wan-Bissaka provided the assist.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Yoane Wissa scores for Congo DR with a right-footed shot from outside the box. The score is now 3-1 in favor of Congo DR against Uzbekistan.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Yoane Wissa from Congo DR wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Aziz G'aniev commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
88
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Fiston Mayele from Congo DR takes a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes close but misses to the right. He was assisted by Meschack Elia.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Congo DR: Joris Kayembe comes on for Arthur Masuaku.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uzbekistan: Jamshid Iskanderov comes on for Akmal Mozgovoy.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uzbekistan: Igor Sergeev comes on for Jakhongir Urozov.
78
Attempt Attempt
Meschack Elia's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Noah Sadiki.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiston Mayele scores for Congo DR with a right-footed shot from very close range after a fast break. The score is now Congo DR 2, Uzbekistan 1.
75
Update Update
Fiston Mayele from Congo DR misses a header from the left side of the six-yard box.
74
Corner Corner
Congo DR wins a corner after Sherzod Nasrullaev concedes.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uzbekistan: Oston Urunov comes on for Abbosbek Fayzullaev.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Congo DR: Meschack Elia comes on for Nathanaël Mbuku.
72
Update Update
Delay over. They are ready to continue.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Congo DR: Théo Bongonda comes on for Brian Cipenga.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Congo DR: Ngal'ayel Mukau comes on for Samuel Moutoussamy.
70
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
70
Update Update
Eldor Shomurodov commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
70
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Yoane Wissa scores for Congo DR with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The match remains 1-1.
66
Update Update
Abdukodir Khusanov of Uzbekistan concedes a penalty for a foul in the penalty area.
66
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Congo DR as Yoane Wissa is fouled in the penalty area.
62
Update Update
Arthur Masuaku from Congo DR wins a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Akmal Mozgovoy from Uzbekistan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Samuel Moutoussamy of Congo DR commits a foul.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuel Moutoussamy of Congo DR receives a yellow card for a foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Yoane Wissa (Congo DR) header from the centre of the box.
61
Attempt Attempt
Fiston Mayele from Congo DR misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Nathanaël Mbuku provided the assist.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uzbekistan: Odiljon Khamrobekov comes on for Otabek Shukurov.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Uzbekistan: Aziz G'aniev comes on for Dostonbek Khamdamov.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal. Aaron Wan-Bissaka provided the assist.
58
Update Update
Fiston Mayele of Congo DR is caught offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Fiston Mayele from Congo DR heads the ball from the center of the box.
55
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to resume play.
54
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Akmal Mozgovoy of Uzbekistan.
53
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Brian Cipenga from the Congo DR, who took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
51
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Congo DR: Fiston Mayele comes on for Cédric Bakambu.
51
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov from Uzbekistan misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
50
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Yoane Wissa from Congo DR with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Sherzod Nasrullaev of Uzbekistan.
48
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sherzod Nasrullaev from Uzbekistan receives a yellow card for a foul.
48
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Brian Cipenga from Congo DR had a right-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece situation.
47
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullaev commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
47
Update Update
Axel Tuanzebe from Congo DR wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with Congo DR trailing Uzbekistan 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Abbosbek Fayzullaev from Uzbekistan misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it too high from a direct free kick.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullaev from Uzbekistan wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR commits a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Chancel Mbemba from Congo DR takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it goes close and misses to the left after a set piece situation.
45
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullaev commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
45
Update Update
Chancel Mbemba from Congo DR is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
44
Update Update
Cédric Bakambu is caught offside for Congo DR.
44
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Brian Cipenga from Congo DR has a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and long range on the left, but it is blocked.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdukodir Khusanov from Uzbekistan receives a yellow card for a foul.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdukodir Khusanov of Uzbekistan.
43
Update Update
Yoane Wissa from Congo DR is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
42
Corner Corner
Congo DR wins a corner after Abbosbek Fayzullaev concedes.
41
Update Update
Dostonbek Khamdamov commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
41
Update Update
Noah Sadiki from Congo DR is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Sherzod Nasrullaev of Uzbekistan.
40
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku of Congo DR wins a free kick on the right wing.
39
Update Update
Eldor Shomurodov from Uzbekistan commits a handball.
38
Corner Corner
Uzbekistan wins a corner after Aaron Wan-Bissaka concedes.
36
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
35
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Abbosbek Fayzullaev from Uzbekistan.
34
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullaev commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
34
Update Update
Axel Tuanzebe from Congo DR wins a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Update Update
Cédric Bakambu of Congo DR is caught offside.
29
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Yoane Wissa from Congo DR takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
25
Corner Corner
Uzbekistan is awarded a corner after Axel Tuanzebe concedes.
23
Update Update
Akmal Mozgovoy from Uzbekistan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Yoane Wissa of Congo DR.
23
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Sadiki from Congo DR receives a yellow card for a foul.
20
Update Update
Noah Sadiki from Congo DR commits a foul.
20
Update Update
Otabek Shukurov from Uzbekistan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision confirms no goal. The score remains Congo DR 0, Uzbekistan 1.
17
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku commits a foul for Congo DR.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR is checking the goal scored by Nathanaël Mbuku for Congo DR.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nathanaël Mbuku scores for Congo DR with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box. The match is now 1-1 against Uzbekistan.
15
Update Update
Arthur Masuaku from Congo DR wins a free kick on the left wing.
15
Update Update
Arthur Masuaku from Congo DR wins a free kick on the left wing.
14
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullaev from Uzbekistan commits a foul.
14
Update Update
Otabek Shukurov commits a foul for Uzbekistan.
13
Corner Corner
Uzbekistan wins a corner after Axel Tuanzebe concedes.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Uzbekistan takes the lead 1-0 against Congo DR. Eldor Shomurodov scores with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Abbosbek Fayzullaev.
4
Update Update
Nathanaël Mbuku from Congo DR commits a foul.
4
Update Update
Sherzod Nasrullaev from Uzbekistan is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Noah Sadiki from Congo DR is awarded a free kick in the attacking half.
3
Attempt Attempt
Yoane Wissa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Dostonbek Khamdamov takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Felix Zwayer.

CONCLUSION

Congo DR completed a measured comeback after conceding first in a contest defined by clear expected goal dominance. The 3-1 scoreline reflected the 2.17 differential in underlying quality despite Uzbekistan holding the stronger designation beforehand. Possession control at 58 percent supported sustained pressure that yielded the required goals after the break. Absence of dismissals preserved full-team structures for both sides throughout the ninety minutes. Alignment between actual result and expected metrics confirmed the performance gap rather than random variance. Uzbekistan's limited 0.12 expected goals highlighted restricted attacking output once Congo DR adjusted their approach. The outcome therefore rested on sustained second-half execution that converted territorial and chance advantages into the final margin.