Türkiye vs United States preview
World Cup
United States
USA
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Türkiye secured a 3-2 victory over the United States in a match that saw the home side lead 2-1 at the break. Despite the United States entering as the stronger team and holding 53 percent possession, Türkiye capitalized on key moments to claim the win. The expected goals stood at 2.01 for Türkiye and 1.55 for the United States, reflecting a narrow underlying edge for the victors. No red cards were issued, allowing both sides to maintain full squads throughout. The result aligned with the expected goals but diverged notably from pre-match market signals. Türkiye's performance highlighted efficient finishing despite lower overall control of the ball. This outcome underscored the unpredictable nature of the contest from start to finish.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Türkiye produced a significant 96.4 percent deviation as the match winner.
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Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics.
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xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with the xG values recorded.
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Market alignment: The outcome showed no alignment with pre-match market indicators.
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xG expectations: Türkiye posted 2.01 xG while the United States recorded 1.55 xG.
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Event impact: Key scoring events shaped the 3-2 result without external disruptions.
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Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without numerical distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Türkiye
United States
Team Power Ranking
i
31.94
46.66
Türkiye
United States
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Türkiye
United States
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Türkiye
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Türkiye
Türkiye
United States
Türkiye
United States
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Türkiye
Türkiye
United States
Türkiye
United States
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- USA had peak pressure around 3'.
- USA started the game with stronger pressure.
- Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-06-27T00:00:24+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
United States
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina
League: World Cup
Kickoff: Thu, 2 Jul - 12:00 AM
Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary