Japan vs Sweden preview
World Cup
Sweden
SWE
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Japan hosted Sweden in a tightly contested encounter that concluded with a 1-1 draw after a scoreless first half. The home side held a slight edge in possession at 52 percent while generating 0.9 expected goals against Sweden's 0.54. Despite Sweden entering as the stronger side the match produced an even result consistent with the underlying metrics. Both teams maintained disciplined structures without any dismissals or major disruptions. The second half saw Japan capitalize on their marginal xG advantage to level the contest after Sweden had opened the scoring. Overall the game reflected balanced attacking intent tempered by solid defensive organization from both nations. The final scoreline accurately captured the competitive equilibrium on display.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Sweden exhibited significant deviation from pre-match projections in securing only a draw.
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Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with established performance benchmarks throughout.
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xG alignment: The 1-1 outcome proved consistent with the 0.36 xG differential favoring Japan.
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Market alignment: Final result diverged from market projections centered on Sweden.
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xG expectations: Japan posted 0.9 expected goals while Sweden managed 0.54 in the match.
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Event impact: No standout incidents shifted momentum away from the even second-half pattern.
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Red card distortion: Zero red cards issued ensured match dynamics stayed free of numerical imbalances.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Japan
Sweden
Movement
Changes since opening
Japan
Sweden
Team Power Ranking
i
18.52
35.28
Japan
Sweden
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Japan
Sweden
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Japan
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Japan
Japan
Sweden
Japan
Sweden
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Japan
Japan
Sweden
Japan
Sweden
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SWE had peak pressure around 100'.
- SWE started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-06-26T00:01:05+00:00
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General Information
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary