Portland Timbers vs Austin preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
Providence Park
Major League Soccer
Portland TimbersPOT
1 2
AustinATX
Full Time
Regular Season
Antony - 89' (P)
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Portland Timbers hosted Austin in a league encounter that concluded with a 1-2 away victory for the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-1 after Austin struck first. Portland Timbers registered 1.83 expected goals while Austin managed 1.01, creating an 0.82 differential that favored the home side on paper. Both teams finished with exactly 50 percent possession. No red cards were shown to either side throughout the ninety minutes. Despite entering as the stronger team, Portland Timbers could not convert their expected goal advantage into the result. Austin secured the three points through clinical finishing that overcame the underlying metrics. The match highlighted how actual outcomes can diverge from statistical projections even when possession remains balanced. This result leaves both sides reflecting on key moments that shaped the final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin. Austin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performances.
  • xG alignment: The final result did not align with the expected goals favoring Portland Timbers.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with pre-match market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: Portland Timbers generated 1.83 expected goals compared to Austin's 1.01.
  • Event impact: Austin's early goal created lasting pressure that shaped the match progression.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left the match free from disciplinary distortions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Gonzalez
G. Gonzalez
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Corte
C. Corte
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Kieso
J. Kieso
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Surgan
J. Surgan
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Portland Timbers M. Cifuentes Corvillo
M. Cifuentes Corvillo
VS
Austin D. Arnaud
D. Arnaud
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.89
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Los Angeles FC Rank: 71 D
San Diego Rank: 67 W
Chicago Fire Rank: 66 L
Seattle Sounders Rank: 65 W
Real Salt Lake Rank: 63 W
Dallas Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Philadelphia Union Rank: 65 D
Seattle Sounders Rank: 65 W
Dallas Rank: 66 L
Colorado Rapids Rank: 63 L
Houston Dynamo Rank: 66 L
Seattle Sounders Rank: 65 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.13
58.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portland Timbers
Austin
Power Score
64.13
58.54
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
444
624

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portland Timbers — Opponent-weighted form score
Austin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portland Timbers Austin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portland Timbers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portland Timbers
vs
Austin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portland Timbers Austin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
55%
48%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs -0.48
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portland Timbers Austin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
48%
55%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.48 vs +0.00
Portland Timbers
Austin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portland Timbers
vs
Austin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portland Timbers Austin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portland Timbers 0.00
Austin 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portland Timbers Austin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portland Timbers 0.00
Austin 0.00
Portland Timbers
Austin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • POT had peak pressure around 46'.
  • POT started the game with stronger pressure.
POT Pressure ATX Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: POT reached the top pressure at 46' (56.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portland Timbers POT Home
4 matches
Austin ATX Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-30T00:48:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
Providence Park
Capacity
25218
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Guido Gonzalez
Christopher Corte
Jeremy Kieso
Joe Surgan

Statistics

Possession
POT
51%
ATX
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
61 Dangerous attacks 25
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

36 Ball Safe 63
1 Penalties 0
5 Goal Kicks 4
2 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 6
10 Throwins 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Successful Headers 4
0 Assists 1
13 Dribble Attempts 8
4 Successful Dribbles 2
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25

Attacking

123 Attacks 88
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

35 Long Passes 58
493 Passes 508
423 Successful Passes 424
86 Successful Passes Percentage 83
9 Key Passes 9
22 Successful Long Passes 24
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

1 Saves 4
14 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 9
45 Duels Won 31

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 10
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Guido Gonzalez

Starting XI ▼

41
James Pantemis
James Pantemis Goalkeeper
7.15
4
Kamal Miller
Kamal Miller Defender
6.72
15
Eric Miller
Eric Miller Defender
6.59
22
Omir Fernandez
Omir Fernandez
Attacker83'
6.57
20
Finn Surman
Finn Surman Defender
7.07
27
Jimer Fory
Jimer Fory Defender
6.76
23
Ian Smith
Ian Smith
Defender75'
6.69
10
David Da Costa
David Da Costa Midfielder
7.13
17
Cole Bassett
Cole Bassett Midfielder
7.18
80
Joao Ortiz
Joao Ortiz
Midfielder75'
6.69
30
José Luis Caicedo Barrera
José Luis Caicedo Barrera Midfielder
7
Ariel Lassiter
Ariel Lassiter Attacker
6.93
88
Gage Guerra
Gage Guerra Attacker
6.71
11
Antony
Antony
Attacker63'
6.66
99
Kristoffer Velde
Kristoffer Velde Attacker
7.19
Referee : Guido Gonzalez

Starting XI ▼

1
Brad Stuver
Brad Stuver Goalkeeper
7.17
3
Mikkel Desler
Mikkel Desler Defender
6.6
4
Brendan Hines-Ike
Brendan Hines-Ike
Defender71'
6.88
15
Jon Bell
Jon Bell Defender
6.57
5
Oleksandr Svatok
Oleksandr Svatok
Defender83'
6.72
29
Guilherme Biro
Guilherme Biro Defender
6.68
14
Besard Sabovic
Besard Sabovic Midfielder
6.61
17
Jon Gallagher
Jon Gallagher Midfielder
6.57
77
Przemyslaw Placheta
Przemyslaw Placheta
Midfielder63'
6.57
30
J. Rosales
J. Rosales Midfielder
6.71
38
Ervin Torres
Ervin Torres Midfielder
6.81
9
Brandon Vazquez
Brandon Vazquez Attacker
6.83
11
Facundo Torres
Facundo Torres Attacker
7.16
6
Ilie Sánchez
Ilie Sánchez
Midfielder83'
6.64
24
Jorge Alastuey
Jorge Alastuey Attacker
6.78
23
Žan Kolmanič
Žan Kolmanič
Defender63'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
J. Rosales
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Oleksandr Svatok
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Antony
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
89'
Event
José Luis Caicedo Barrera
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Oleksandr Svatok
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Antony
Penalty awarded
86'
Event
Omir Fernandez  → Eric Miller
7th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Ilie Sánchez → Facundo Torres
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Oleksandr Svatok → Jon Bell
9th Substitution
Event
Joao Ortiz → Cole Bassett
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Ian Smith → Jimer Fory
6th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Brendan Hines-Ike → Mikkel Desler
4th Substitution
Event
Antony → Gage Guerra
1st Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Žan Kolmanič → Jorge Alastuey
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Przemyslaw Placheta → Jon Gallagher
3rd Substitution
47'
Event
Mikkel Desler
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Guilherme Biro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Facundo Torres
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Finn Surman's header is blocked.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Oleksandr Svatok scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Antony Alves Santos scores with a right-footed shot.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Antony Alves scores, making it 1-1.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jose Luis Caicedo Barrera.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oleksandr Svatok.
86
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Antony Alves Santos.
85
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Update Update
Omir Fernandez replaces Eric Miller.
83
Update Update
Oleksandr Svatok is on, and Jon Bell is off.
83
Update Update
Ilie Sanchez Farres is on, and Facundo Torres is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ariel Lassiter takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
David Pereira Da Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Kristoffer Velde takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Julio Ortiz replaces Cole Bassett.
75
Update Update
On Ian Smith, off Jimer Fory.
73
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Yeramid Rosales Erazo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Update Update
Brendan Hines-Ike comes on for Mikkel Desler.
69
Attempt Attempt
David Pereira Da Costa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Antony Alves Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kristoffer Velde takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Zan Kolmanic replaces Jorge Alastuey.
63
Update Update
Przemyslaw Placheta comes on for Jon Gallagher.
63
Substitution Substitution
Antony Alves Santos is substituted on for Gage Guerra.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ariel Lassiter takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Eric Miller takes a shot, but it's blocked.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Update Update
Offside.
51
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Yeramid Rosales Erazo takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Besard Sabovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Update Update
Offside.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mikkel Desler receives a yellow card.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Eric Miller takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Update Update
Offside.
40
Attempt Attempt
Facundo Torres takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Guilherme Biro Trindade Dubas.
29
Update Update
Offside.
28
Attempt Attempt
Cole Bassett takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Facundo Torres scores with a left-footed shot.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Facundo Torres scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Joseph Yeramid Rosales Erazo.
22
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Alastuey takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Attempt Attempt
Jon Gallagher takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Alastuey takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Guido Gonzales Jr.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin. Structural assessment: Austin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.