Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
HeidenheimHDH
FSV Mainz 05M05
KICKOFF : Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Heidenheim welcome FSV Mainz 05 to the Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 17th in the table, the hosts face an uphill battle against 10th-placed visitors who boast a clear power advantage of 5.9 points, with Mainz's overall rating at 79.78 compared to Heidenheim's 73.92. This matchup pits a relegation-threatened side against a more stable mid-table outfit, both entering with neutral form scores of zero and no recent outings to analyze. Heidenheim will rely on home advantage in their compact stadium, but Mainz's superior strength suggests they hold the edge structurally. Set-piece data remains unavailable with low confidence proxies, leaving tactical battles in open play as the focal point. League positions underscore Heidenheim's desperation for points while Mainz aim to consolidate their standing.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Heidenheim languish in 17th place while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th, with the visitors holding a 5.9-point power advantage.
  • Form: Both teams record a form score of zero with no last outings available.
  • Squad: No specific squad news or changes reported for either side.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Market: Heidenheim 48.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.6% (Δ+0%) | FSV Mainz 05 29.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Heidenheim F. Schmidt
F. Schmidt
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 76 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 D
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 75 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heidenheim
48.69%
Draw
21.56%
Away FSV Mainz 05
29.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.92
79.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
73.92
79.78
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
136
63

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heidenheim — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heidenheim FSV Mainz 05

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Feller
40 F. Feller
H. Traorè
23 H. Traorè
P. Mainka
6 P. Mainka
J. Föhrenbach
19 J. Föhrenbach
H. Behrens
26 H. Behrens
J. Schöppner
3 J. Schöppner
A.Ibrahimovic
22 A.Ibrahimovic
N. Dorsch
30 N. Dorsch
M. Pieringer
18 M. Pieringer
B. Zivzivadze
11 B. Zivzivadze
E. Dinkci
8 E. Dinkci
D. Batz
33 D. Batz
D. Kohr
31 D. Kohr
S. Posch
4 S. Posch
K. Potulski
48 K. Potulski
P. Mwene
2 P. Mwene
N. Amiri
10 N. Amiri
K. Sano
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
8 P. Nebel
A. Caci
19 A. Caci
S. Becker
23 S. Becker
P. Tietz
20 P. Tietz

General Information

Date & Time
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

40
Frank Feller
Frank Feller Goalkeeper
7.42
8
Eren Dinkçi
Eren Dinkçi Attacker
6.81
11
Budu Zivzivadze
Budu Zivzivadze Centre Forward
6.71
18
Marvin Pieringer
Marvin Pieringer Attacker
6.81
22
Arijon Ibrahimovic
Arijon Ibrahimovic Central Midfield
6.94
23
Omar Traoré
Omar Traoré Right Back
6.42
3
Jan Schöppner
Jan Schöppner Central Midfield
6.6
6
Patrick Mainka
Patrick Mainka Right Back
6.98
19
Jonas Föhrenbach
Jonas Föhrenbach Left Back
6.63
26
Hennes Behrens
Hennes Behrens Left Back
6.9
30
Niklas Dorsch
Niklas Dorsch Central Midfield
6.77

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
6.96
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
6.68
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Midfielder
6.96
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.92
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Centre Back
6.85
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Central Midfield
6.97
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Central Midfield
6.9
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Central Midfield
7.38
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Left Back
6.77
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Right Back
6.86

CONCLUSION

FSV Mainz 05 arrive as the stronger side with higher power ratings and a better league position, positioning them favorably against a Heidenheim team rooted near the bottom. The hosts' home ground could spark resilience, but neutral form across the board leaves the contest open to tactical execution. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, expect a grind where Mainz's structural edge shines through transitions and build-up. Heidenheim must maximize every chance to avoid slipping further, while visitors seek to capitalize on their 5.9-point superiority for a vital away win.