Chelsea vs Manchester City preview

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Wembley Stadium Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
FA Cup
ChelseaCHE
Manchester CityMCI
KICKOFF : Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
Final

CONTEXT

Chelsea host Manchester City in FA Cup (Final) at Wembley Stadium. Power ranking favours Manchester City by 10 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Manchester City possesses a structural edge with a 98.48 power score over Chelsea's 88.51, yielding a 10-point advantage.
  • Form: Chelsea and Manchester City both carry form scores of 50 into the final.
  • Squad: Squad details remain undisclosed, emphasizing reliance on core strengths for both teams.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable, leaving tactical adaptability as a key unknown.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics unavailable due to absent xG data and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for analysis in this fixture.
  • Market: Chelsea 21.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.1% (Δ+0%) | Manchester City 53.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leeds United Rank: 86 W
Port Vale Rank: 67 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
Hull City Rank: 72 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: 78 W
Liverpool Rank: 92 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 W
Salford City Rank: 70 W
Exeter City Rank: 67 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 8 - 25
25
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
21.24%
Draw
25.08%
Away Manchester City
53.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.51
98.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Manchester City
Power Score
88.51
98.48
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
16
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Manchester City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 59 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
59 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
26
Wins
25
8
Draws
8
25
Losses
26
Goals
74
Goals Scored
72
72
Goals Conceded
74
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:01:25+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Final
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Capacity
90000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Robert Lynch Sanchez
Robert Lynch Sanchez Goalkeeper
—
James Hillson
James Hillson Goalkeeper
12
Filip Jörgensen
Filip Jörgensen Goalkeeper
44
Gabriel Slonina
Gabriel Slonina Goalkeeper
28
Teddy Sharman-Lowe
Teddy Sharman-Lowe Goalkeeper
4
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo
Oluwatosin Adarabioyo Defender
3
Marc Cucurella Saseta
Marc Cucurella Saseta Defender
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
24
Reece James
Reece James Defender
5
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi Defender
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6
Levi Samuels Colwill
Levi Samuels Colwill Defender
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
—
Caleb Ryan Wiley
Caleb Ryan Wiley Defender
19
Mamadou Sarr
Mamadou Sarr Defender
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
34
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
Joshua Kofi Acheampong Defender
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
8
Enzo Jeremías Fernández
Enzo Jeremías Fernández Midfielder
25
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo
Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo Midfielder
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
17
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos
Andrey Nascimento dos Santos Midfielder
14
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo
Dario Cassia Luis Essugo Midfielder
7
Pedro Lomba Neto
Pedro Lomba Neto Attacker
—
Mykhailo Mudryk
Mykhailo Mudryk Attacker
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap Attacker
20
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus Attacker
49
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra
Alejandro Garnacho Ferreyra Attacker
11
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Attacker
38
Marc Guiu Paz
Marc Guiu Paz Attacker
41
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves Attacker

Squad ▼

13
Marcus Bettinelli
Marcus Bettinelli Goalkeeper
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
5
John Stones
John Stones Defender
6
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
3
Rúben Santos Gato Alves Dias
Rúben Santos Gato Alves Dias Defender
15
Marc Guehi
Marc Guehi Defender
21
Rayan Aït Nouri
Rayan Aït Nouri Defender
27
Matheus Luiz Nunes
Matheus Luiz Nunes Defender
24
Joško Gvardiol
Joško Gvardiol Defender
82
Rico Lewis
Rico Lewis Defender
68
Max Alleyne
Max Alleyne Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
8
Mateo Kovačić
Mateo Kovačić Midfielder
20
Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva
Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva Midfielder
16
Rodrigo Hernández Cascante
Rodrigo Hernández Cascante Midfielder
47
Philip Foden
Philip Foden Midfielder
4
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder
10
Mathis Ryan Cherki
Mathis Ryan Cherki Midfielder
14
Nicolás González Iglesias
Nicolás González Iglesias Midfielder
41
Sverre Halseth Nypan
Sverre Halseth Nypan Midfielder
9
Erling Håland
Erling Håland Attacker
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Attacker
11
Jeremy Doku
Jeremy Doku Attacker
26
Sávio Moreira de Oliveira
Sávio Moreira de Oliveira Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Manchester City holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Manchester City a 10-point edge. External projection is Chelsea 21.9%, draw 24.9%, and Manchester City 53.1%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.