Almería vs Las Palmas preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
La Liga 2
AlmeríaALM
Las PalmasLPA
KICKOFF :
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Almería welcomes Las Palmas to Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos for a pivotal La Liga 2 regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts, perched in 2nd place, seek to extend their advantage in the promotion race against 5th-placed visitors eager to climb. Almería's power score of 71.12 dwarfs Las Palmas' 62.86, granting an 8.3-point edge that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics align, with Almería at 30.33 compared to 23.22, signaling momentum at home. League positions reflect squad depth, though detailed efficiency and set-piece data remain unavailable due to limited xG metrics. Transition play and advanced variables lack specifics, focusing attention on core battles. Almería's home advantage could prove decisive in this mid-table skirmish with promotion implications.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería holds a power score of 71.12 against Las Palmas' 62.86, with an 8.3-point advantage.
  • Form: Almería's form score of 30.33 surpasses Las Palmas' 23.22.
  • Squad: Almería occupies 2nd in the league table, ahead of Las Palmas in 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable with low confidence and proxy metrics used.
  • xVariable: xG variables inaccessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: Baseline split: Almería 46.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.2% (Δ+0%) | Las Palmas 27% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.6
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: 68 D
Mirandés Rank: 60 W
Granada Rank: 64 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Racing Santander Rank: 72 L
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: 66 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Leganés Rank: 63 W
Málaga Rank: 70 L
Huesca Rank: 58 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
46.78%
Draw
26.23%
Away Las Palmas
26.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.12
62.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Las Palmas
Power Score
71.12
62.86
League Position
2
5
Global Rank
189
210

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Las Palmas

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
21 matches
Las Palmas LPA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
9
Goals
30
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
30
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.01
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
7.57
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão Right Wing
6.85
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield
6.83
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
6.52
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
7.14
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.86
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.87
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
6.81
6
André Horta
André Horta Defensive Midfield
6.66

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.83
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
6.88
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Midfielder
6.83
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
6.93
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacker
7.22
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Central Midfield
6.97
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Left Back
6.97
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Central Midfield
6.8
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada Right Back
6.64
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Left Back
7.01
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog Right Back
6.64

CONCLUSION

Almería enters as favorites, leveraging superior power, form, and league standing to target victory at home. Las Palmas must disrupt through resilience, but the 8.3-point gap highlights hosts' edge. Without detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, expect a tactical duel emphasizing structure and momentum. Almería's position demands points, while visitors aim to exploit any complacency. Home support at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos tips balance toward the 2nd-placed side in this promotion-contested affair.