Karlsruher SC vs VfL Wolfsburg preview

Germany flag 2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany
Wildparkstadion
2. Bundesliga
Karlsruher SCKSC
2 5
VfL WolfsburgWOB
Full Time
Round 3 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Fabian Reese - 28', 90+5'
Hauke Wahl - 88'

CONTEXT

VfL Wolfsburg secured a 2-5 victory over Karlsruher SC in a match where the away side overcame the designated stronger team. Karlsruher SC held a 2-3 lead at halftime before Wolfsburg mounted a decisive response in the second period. Expected goals favored Wolfsburg with 3.45 against the home side's 1.86, reflecting a differential of 1.59. Possession statistics showed Wolfsburg controlling 58 percent of the ball compared to 42 percent for Karlsruher SC. No red cards were issued throughout the contest. The outcome proved consistent with underlying metrics and aligned with pre-match projections despite the significant deviation attributed to the winners. This result underscored Wolfsburg's ability to capitalize on opportunities effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Karlsruher SC 2-5 VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Wolfsburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with expected performance levels across both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result aligned with the xG figures of 1.86 for Karlsruher SC and 3.45 for VfL Wolfsburg.
  • Market alignment: The match outcome proved consistent with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Wolfsburg exceeded their xG projection while Karlsruher SC fell short of theirs.
  • Event impact: The second-half adjustments by VfL Wolfsburg proved decisive in overturning the halftime deficit.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to influence the flow or structure of the game.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Erbst
L. Erbst
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Bergmann
M. Bergmann
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Kabalakli
C. Kabalakli
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Hasmann
J. Hasmann
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Karlsruher SC M. Senft
M. Senft
VS
VfL Wolfsburg T. Strobl
T. Strobl
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kaiserslautern Rank: 74 D
DSC Arminia Bielefeld Rank: 73 W
VfL Bochum 1848 Rank: 73 L
Paderborn Rank: 78 D
Darmstadt 98 Rank: 72 W
Hannover 96 Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hannover 96 Rank: 76 W
Kaiserslautern Rank: 74 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.89
46.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Karlsruher SC
VfL Wolfsburg
Power Score
70.89
46.15
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
243
93

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Karlsruher SC — Opponent-weighted form score
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karlsruher SC VfL Wolfsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Karlsruher SC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

VfL Wolfsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karlsruher SC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy VfL Wolfsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.93
52.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
52.16
48.93
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Karlsruher SC -0.28 Efficiency Index
vs
VfL Wolfsburg +0.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Karlsruher SC
VfL Wolfsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karlsruher SC
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Karlsruher SC VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
19%
33%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.36 vs -1.13
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Karlsruher SC VfL Wolfsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
33%
19%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.13 vs -0.36
Karlsruher SC
VfL Wolfsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Karlsruher SC
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Karlsruher SC VfL Wolfsburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Karlsruher SC 0.35
VfL Wolfsburg 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Karlsruher SC VfL Wolfsburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Karlsruher SC 0.08
VfL Wolfsburg 0.04
Karlsruher SC
VfL Wolfsburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KSC had peak pressure around 78'.
  • KSC started the game with stronger pressure.
KSC Pressure WOB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KSC reached the top pressure at 78' (84.67).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 2. Bundesliga, Germany · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Wildparkstadion
Capacity
35000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lars Erbst
Manuel Bergmann
Cengiz Kabalakli
Justin Joel Hasmann

Statistics

Possession
KSC
43%
WOB
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 5
2 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 6
51 Dangerous attacks 65
42 Possession 58
10 Corners 8
14 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 84
9 Goal Kicks 11
13 Goal Attempts 16
5 Substitutions 4
13 Throwins 7
14 Dribble Attempts 12
5 Successful Dribbles 5
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

Attacking

92 Attacks 68
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

38 Long Passes 52
326 Passes 473
259 Successful Passes 409
79 Successful Passes Percentage 86
12 Key Passes 21
20 Successful Long Passes 34
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65

Defensive

6 Saves 3
10 Tackles 13
8 Interceptions 12
35 Duels Won 39

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 21
4 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Lars Erbst

Starting XI ▼

1
Hans Christian Bernat
Hans Christian Bernat Goalkeeper
6.3
2
Sebastian Jung
Sebastian Jung Defender
6.52
15
Paul Scholl
Paul Scholl
Defender82'
5.03
3
Deniz Ofli
Deniz Ofli Defender
6.14
22
Christoph Kobald
Christoph Kobald Defender
6.15
28
Marcel Franke
Marcel Franke Defender
6.71
6
Santeri Väänänen
Santeri Väänänen Midfielder
6.63
26
Danyal Zor
Danyal Zor
Midfielder58'
6.34
7
Kevin Wiethaup
Kevin Wiethaup Midfielder
6.48
25
Lilian Egloff
Lilian Egloff
Midfielder58'
6.29
10
Marvin Wanitzek
Marvin Wanitzek (C) Midfielder
7.45
33
Viktor Bergh
Viktor Bergh Midfielder
6.54
13
Shio Fukuda
Shio Fukuda Attacker
7.27
27
John Davis Meyer
John Davis Meyer
Attacker46'
6.37
19
Louey Ben Farhat
Louey Ben Farhat Attacker
7.27
11
Noel Eichinger
Noel Eichinger
Attacker58'
6.29
Referee : Lars Erbst

Starting XI ▼

30
Jakub Zielinski
Jakub Zielinski Goalkeeper
6.45
2
Kilian Fischer
Kilian Fischer Defender
7.27
6
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl (C) Defender
7.22
21
Joakim Maehle
Joakim Maehle Defender
7.92
22
Mathys Angély
Mathys Angély Defender
7.11
5
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Vinicius de Souza Costa Midfielder
7.34
20
Muhammed Damar
Muhammed Damar Midfielder
6.71
32
Mattias Svanberg
Mattias Svanberg
Midfielder66'
7.06
37
Elvis Rexhbecaj
Elvis Rexhbecaj Midfielder
6.78
31
Yannick Gerhardt
Yannick Gerhardt
Midfielder72'
6.49
7
Kento Shiogai
Kento Shiogai Attacker
6.33
19
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel
Attacker66'
7.46
11
Fabian Reese
Fabian Reese Attacker
2
10
17
Alexander Bernhardsson
Alexander Bernhardsson Attacker
7.83
23
Alessio Besio
Alessio Besio
Attacker79'
7.03

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Fabian Reese
Right foot shot / 7th Goal
88'
Event
Hauke Wahl
Header / 6th Goal
Event
Paul Scholl → Sebastian Jung
9th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
79'
Event
Alessio Besio → Alexander Bernhardsson
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Yannick Gerhardt → Elvis Rexhbecaj
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Robert Glatzel  → Kento Shiogai
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Mattias Svanberg → Muhammed Damar
6th Substitution
Event
Lilian Egloff → Kevin Wiethaup
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Noel Eichinger → Louey Ben Farhat
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Danyal Zor → Santeri Väänänen
4th Substitution
58'
Event
John Davis Meyer → Shio Fukuda
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
28'
Event
Fabian Reese
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Marvin Wanitzek 
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
12'
10'
Event
Alexander Bernhardsson
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Shio Fukuda
Header / 1st Goal
7'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Fabian Reese scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fabian Reese scores, making it 2-5, assisted by Alessio Besio.
90
Attempt Attempt
John Davis Meyer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Besio takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Robert-Nesta Glatzel with a header, but it missed the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alessio Besio takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Nesta Glatzel takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Hauke Wahl Head Shot Goal
88
Attempt Attempt
Robert-Nesta Glatzel takes a header shot but misses.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hauke Wahl scores to make it 2-4, assisted by Robert-Nesta Glatzel.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
85
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Bergh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Paul Scholl comes on for Sebastian Jung.
80
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Reese takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Vinicius de Souza Costa.
79
Attempt Attempt
Mattias Svanberg takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
79
Update Update
Alessio Besio comes on for Alexander Bernhardsson.
74
Attempt Attempt
Lilian Egloff takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Wanitzek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Substitution Substitution
Yannick Gerhardt is substituted off for Elvis Rexhbecaj.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Attempt Attempt
Lilian Egloff takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Lilian Egloff takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Substitution Substitution
Robert-Nesta Glatzel is substituted off for Kento Shiogai.
66
Update Update
Mattias Svanberg comes on for Muhammed Damar.
62
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Franke takes a header shot but misses.
58
Substitution Substitution
Noel Eichinger is substituted for Louey Ben Farhat.
58
Update Update
Lilian Egloff comes on for Kevin Wiethaup.
58
Update Update
On Danyal Zor, off Santeri Vaananen.
56
Attempt Attempt
Elvis Rexhbecaj takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Elvis Rexhbecaj takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Elvis Rexhbecaj takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Kento Shiogai takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Bernhardsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Bergh takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kilian Fischer takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
Kilian Fischer's right-footed shot is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Kento Shiogai takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Bernhardsson attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
John Davis Meyer is on, and Shio Fukuda is off.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Vinicius de Souza Costa takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Vinicius de Souza Costa takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vinicius de Souza Costa scores to make it 2-3, assisted by Joakim Maehle.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Franke takes a header shot but misses.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Muhammed Damar takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Reese takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Wanitzek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Wiethaup takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Attempt Attempt
Mathys Angely takes a header shot but misses.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Update Update
Mathys Angely's header is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Kento Shiogai takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Franke attempts a header but misses the shot.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Fabian Reese takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fabian Reese scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
26
Attempt Attempt
Louey Ben Farhat takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Bernhardsson takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Reese takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Bernhardsson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
17
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Wiethaup takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Marvin Wanitzek takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marvin Wanitzek scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Louey Ben Farhat.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Alexander Bernhardsson scores with a header.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alexander Bernhardsson scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Fabian Reese.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shio Fukuda takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
7
Attempt Attempt
Louey Ben Farhat takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Shio Fukuda scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Marcel Franke.
6
Attempt Attempt
Louey Ben Farhat takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Lars Erbst.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Karlsruher SC 2-5 VfL Wolfsburg. Structural assessment: VfL Wolfsburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.