Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen preview

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Asito Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
Heracles AlmeloHEA
1 2
FC GroningenGRO
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Tristan van Gilst - 17'
Goal
|
Goal
Tygo Land - 56'

CONTEXT

Heracles Almelo hosted FC Groningen in a match that ended 1-2 to the visitors. The sides were level at 1-1 after the first half. Home side possession reached 53 percent while the away team recorded 47 percent. No red cards were issued during the contest. FC Groningen entered as the stronger side and delivered the victory. A significant deviation of 40.9 percent was recorded in favor of the away team. Efficiency metrics remained in line with prior patterns for both clubs. The result aligned with available market signals despite limited expected goals information. Second half adjustments proved decisive as the visitors pulled ahead. The outcome reflected the pre-match assessment of relative team strength.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Groningen recorded a significant 40.9 percent structural deviation in the final result.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The 1-2 outcome proved aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed due to missing expected goals figures.
  • Event impact: The 1-1 halftime score shaped second half play and the eventual away win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so there was no red card distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Frijn
D. Frijn
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. de Koning
J. de Koning
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Martens
R. Martens
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Boel
N. Boel
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
VS
FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
0.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Telstar Rank: 63 L
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 L
FC Volendam Rank: 59 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 L
Excelsior Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 W
Excelsior Rank: 61 L
Feyenoord Rank: 74 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 D
Telstar Rank: 64 W
AZ Rank: 75 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 6 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heracles Almelo
17.98%
Draw
22.92%
Away FC Groningen
59.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heracles Almelo
+17.71%
Draw
+16.51%
FC Groningen
-34.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.79
66.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
Power Score
53.79
66.75
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
665
279

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heracles Almelo FC Groningen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Heracles Almelo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Heracles Almelo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Groningen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.72
37.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.34
24.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Heracles Almelo -1.32 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Groningen +1.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Heracles Almelo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Groningen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Heracles Almelo
vs
FC Groningen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Heracles Almelo 0.26
FC Groningen 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo FC Groningen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Heracles Almelo 0.06
FC Groningen 0.02
Heracles Almelo
FC Groningen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRO had peak pressure around 47'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
HEA Pressure GRO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRO reached the top pressure at 47' (79.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heracles Almelo HEA Home
40 matches
FC Groningen GRO Away
Match Record
16
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
16
Goals
60
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
60
-10
Goal Difference
+10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T00:01:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Jansink
Netherlands
16 T. Jansink
M. Benita
Substitution
Netherlands
2 M. Benita
M. te Wierik
Netherlands
23 M. te Wierik
D. Mirani
Netherlands
4 D. Mirani
D. van der Kust
Suriname
5 D. van der Kust
J. Žambůrek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 J. Žambůrek
S. Scheperman
Netherlands
32 S. Scheperman
T. van Gilst
Netherlands
17 T. van Gilst
T. Bruns
Substitution
Netherlands
10 T. Bruns
W. Ould-Chikh
Substitution
Netherlands
73 W. Ould-Chikh
M. Engels
Substitution
Germany
8 M. Engels

General Information

Date & Time
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Asito Stadion
Capacity
12500
Attendance
11311
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Don Frijn
Jari de Koning
Richard Martens
Niels Boel

Statistics

Possession
HEA
53%
GRO
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
42 Dangerous attacks 31
53 Possession 47
9 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
17 Throwins 22
15 Dribble Attempts 12
52 Ball Safe 50
5 Goal Attempts 12
1 Assists 1
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
6 Successful Dribbles 6
11 Goal Kicks 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
22 Successful Headers 10

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
82 Attacks 95

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes 18
77 Successful Passes Percentage 76
9 Key Passes 10
78 Long Passes 52
392 Passes 354
301 Successful Passes 269
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

46 Duels Won 35
13 Tackles 11
3 Saves 1
15 Interceptions 11

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 14
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

16
Timo Jansink
Timo Jansink Goalkeeper
2
Mimeirhel Benita
Mimeirhel Benita Defender
38
Jeppe Wijnreder
Jeppe Wijnreder
Defender85'
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani Defender
5
Djevencio van der Kust
Djevencio van der Kust Defender
23
Mike te Wierik
Mike te Wierik Defender
10
Thomas Bruns
Thomas Bruns Midfielder
20
Rhys Bozinovski
Rhys Bozinovski
Midfielder76'
13
Jan Zamburek
Jan Zamburek Midfielder
39
Sil Blokhuis
Sil Blokhuis
Midfielder88'
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Midfielder
32
Sem Scheperman
Sem Scheperman Midfielder
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
Walid Ould-Chikh Midfielder
41
Tarik Hamamioglu
Tarik Hamamioglu
Attacker76'
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Attacker
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder75'
Referee : Richard Martens

Starting XI ▼

1
Etienne Vaessen
Etienne Vaessen Goalkeeper
3
Thijmen Blokzijl
Thijmen Blokzijl Defender
4
Dies Janse
Dies Janse Defender
5
Marco Rente
Marco Rente Defender
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
8
Tika de Jonge
Tika de Jonge Midfielder
10
Younes Taha
Younes Taha Midfielder
2
Wouter Prins
Wouter Prins
Defender89'
14
Jorg Schreuders
Jorg Schreuders Midfielder
17
David van der Werff
David van der Werff Midfielder
7
Travis Hernes
Travis Hernes
Midfielder61'
18
Tygo Land
Tygo Land Midfielder
27
Rui Mendes
Rui Mendes
Attacker74'
26
Thom van Bergen
Thom van Bergen Attacker
44
Jismerai Dillema
Jismerai Dillema
Midfielder89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Travis Hernes
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jismerai Dillema → Thom van Bergen
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Wouter Prins → Younes Taha
9th Substitution
Event
Sil Blokhuis → Jan Zamburek
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Jan Zamburek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
87'
Event
Jeppe Wijnreder → Mimeirhel Benita
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Rhys Bozinovski → Thomas Bruns
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Tarik Hamamioglu → Walid Ould-Chikh
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Mario Engels
3rd Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Rui Mendes → Tygo Land
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Travis Hernes → David van der Werff
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Tygo Land
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Var
34'
Event
Tristan van Gilst
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
3'
Event
David van der Werff
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

89
Update Update
Wouter Prins comes on for Younes Taha.
90
Update Update
Jismerai Dillema comes on for Thom van Bergen.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sem Scheperman takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Travis Hernes receives a yellow card.
81
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Rhys Bozinovski comes on for Thomas Bruns.
75
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Tarik Hamamiogl comes on for Walid Ould Chikh.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jan Zamburek receives a yellow card.
67
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Update Update
Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes comes on for Tygo Land.
66
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Travis Hernes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Travis Hernes is on, and David van der Werff is off.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tygo Land takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
52
Attempt Attempt
Mimeirhel Benita takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha's left-footed shot is blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Peersman takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Damon Mirani attempted a header but missed the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tika de Jonge takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Sem Scheperman attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Damon Mirani takes a header shot but misses.
8
Update Update
Mario Engels takes a header, but it misses the target.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Tristan van Gilst takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mario Engels takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
David van der Werff scores with a right-footed shot.
3
Attempt Attempt
Thom van Bergen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Younes Taha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Wouter Prins comes on for Younes Taha.
89
Substitution Substitution
Sil Blokhuis is substituted for Jan Zamburek.
76
Update Update
Erik Ahlstrand comes on for Mario Engels.

CONCLUSION

FC Groningen secured a deserved 1-2 win away at Heracles Almelo after an even first half. The visitors demonstrated greater clinical finishing once the second period began. Possession favored the hosts yet failed to translate into sustained pressure. Limited expected goals data restricted deeper performance analysis. The significant deviation observed for the away side underscored their ability to outperform structural forecasts. Both teams maintained efficiency levels consistent with recent form. Absence of dismissals allowed uninterrupted tactical execution throughout the ninety minutes. Overall the result reinforced the pre-match view of FC Groningen as the stronger unit capable of claiming points on the road.