Vukovar vs Varaždin preview

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
VukovarVukovar
VaraždinVaraždin
KICKOFF : Fri, 15 May - 4:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 1. HNL regular season at Stadion Gradski vrt, Vukovar, sitting 10th in the domestic standings, faces a stern test against 4th-placed Varaždin. The visitors boast a commanding power score of 65.75 compared to Vukovar's 48.77, yielding a 17-point advantage that highlights their overall superiority. Varaždin's form score stands at 22.22, eclipsing the hosts' 14.33 and signaling sharper recent momentum. This disparity positions Varaždin as the clear stronger team entering the fray. Vukovar must leverage home support to bridge the gap, but sparse data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces—marked by low confidence and proxies—limits deeper tactical previews. Both sides lack detailed xG insights, focusing attention on core strengths and league context. Expect a battle where Varaždin's quality meets Vukovar's grit in this 2025/2026 campaign fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Varaždin holds a 17-point power advantage with 65.75 score over Vukovar's 48.77.
  • Form: Varaždin's form score of 22.22 surpasses Vukovar's 14.33.
  • Squad: Varaždin occupies 4th in domestic standings versus Vukovar's 10th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data not available for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxies used and no xG data.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Vukovar 24.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Varaždin 48.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Osijek Rank: 64 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vukovar
24.47%
Draw
26.99%
Away Varaždin
48.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.77
65.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vukovar
Varaždin
Power Score
48.77
65.75
League Position
10
4
Global Rank
610
316

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vukovar Varaždin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vukovar Vukovar Home
3 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Đaković
42 A. Đaković
N. Vlasenko
5 N. Vlasenko
M. Tadić
34 M. Tadić
V. Čaić
13 V. Čaić
K. Cabrajic
20 K. Cabrajic
E. Shabani
77 E. Shabani
J. Gurlica
35 J. Gurlica
?. Butić
27 ?. Butić
R. Gonzales
10 R. Gonzales
L. Banovec
28 L. Banovec
J. Puljić
21 J. Puljić

General Information

Date & Time
May 15, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
7.41
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Centre Forward
7.05
10
Robin González
Robin González Attacking Midfield
6.88
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Left Back
6.6
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Left Back
6.5
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Right Back
6.65
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Left Wing
6.77
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Defensive Midfield
6.49
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Defensive Midfield
6.8
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Right Wing
6.44
34
Mario Tadic
Mario Tadic Right Back
6.67

Starting XI ▼

1
Oliver Zelenika
Oliver Zelenika Goalkeeper
6.9
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Centre Forward
7.1
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Right Back
6.83
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Right Wing
6.85
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Left Wing
6.95
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Defensive Midfield
6.78
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Attacking Midfield
6.68
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Right Back
6.81
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Left Back
6.61
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec Left Back
6.7
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina Defensive Midfield
6.74

CONCLUSION

Varaždin's edge in power ratings, form, and league position underscores their favoritism against Vukovar. Hosting at Stadion Gradski vrt offers Vukovar a chance to disrupt, yet the 17-point gap demands exceptional execution. Superior visitor metrics suggest control in possession and chances created. Limited specialized data like set pieces reinforces reliance on overall strength. Vukovar's home resilience could force a contest, but Varaždin appears primed to secure points in this 1. HNL regular season clash, advancing their top-four bid while hosts battle mid-table pressures.