Castellón vs Cádiz preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Fri, 15 May - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
Cádiz CAD
KICKOFF : Fri, 15 May - 6:30 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nou Estadi Castalia hosts a La Liga 2 regular season clash between sixth-placed Castellón and relegation-threatened 18th-placed Cádiz in the 2025/2026 campaign. Castellón enters with a commanding power score of 68.05 against Cádiz's 56.35, translating to an 11.7-point structural advantage that underscores their superior overall quality. The hosts' form score of 29.56 towers over the visitors' dismal 1.56, highlighting recent momentum disparity amid a packed schedule. League standings reflect this gap, with Castellón pushing for promotion contention while Cádiz battles survival. Home support at Castalia could amplify Castellón's edge in possession and pressing phases. Cádiz's woes extend to defensive frailties exposed in recent outings, potentially vulnerable to Castellón's attacking intent. Without detailed xG or set-piece metrics available, focus shifts to raw power and form indicators favoring the hosts decisively. This matchup pits ambition against desperation in a venue where Castellón has historically thrived.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón possesses a 11.7-point power advantage over Cádiz, with scores of 68.05 to 56.35.
  • Form: Castellón's form score stands at 29.56, dwarfing Cádiz's 1.56.
  • Squad: Squad depth aligns with power ratings, favoring Castellón as the stronger side.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables not provided for analysis.
  • Market: Castellón 73.1% (Δ-0.5%) | Draw 16.7% (Δ+0.1%) | Cádiz 10.2% (Δ+0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Cádiz J. Idiakez Barkaiztegui
J. Idiakez Barkaiztegui
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.69
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ceuta Rank: 62 D
Córdoba Rank: 63 L
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Burgos Rank: 67 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
Granada Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 69 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 56 D
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 63 L
FC Andorra Rank: 68 L
Córdoba Rank: 65 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
73.11%
Draw
16.71%
Away Cádiz
10.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Castellón
-0.52%
Draw
+0.1%
Cádiz
+0.43%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.05
56.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Cádiz
Power Score
68.05
56.35
League Position
6
18
Global Rank
255
611

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Cádiz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
10 matches
Cádiz CAD Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
13
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
J. Mellot
22 J. Mellot
A. Jiménez Benítez
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
L. Alcázar Moreno
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
P. Santiago López
18 P. Santiago López
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
R. Pompeu da Silva
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
B. Kibambe Cipenga
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen
D. Gil Mohedano
1 D. Gil Mohedano
M. Climent Plá
21 M. Climent Plá
P. Fernández Balboa
27 P. Fernández Balboa
B. Kovačević
14 B. Kovačević
J. Díaz Peregrina
34 J. Díaz Peregrina
J. González
24 J. González
S. Ortuño Díaz
15 S. Ortuño Díaz
Antonio Cordero
16 Antonio Cordero
A. Fernández Iglesias
8 A. Fernández Iglesias
J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
11 J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
?. García Pascual
23 ?. García Pascual

General Information

Date & Time
May 15, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.85
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
7.03
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.81
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Attacker
6.66
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.28
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Left Back
6.76
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Central Midfield
6.95
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Right Back
6.95
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Right Back
7.15
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Left Back
6.79
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Central Midfield
6.85

Starting XI ▼

1
David Gil
David Gil Goalkeeper
7.02
23
García Pascual
García Pascual Centre Forward
6.8
11
Suso
Suso Right Wing
6.82
21
Mario Climent
Mario Climent Left Back
6.74
34
Juan Díaz
Juan Díaz Right Back
6.75
8
Álex Fernández
Álex Fernández Attacking Midfield
6.71
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic Right Back
6.68
15
Sergio Ortuño
Sergio Ortuño Defensive Midfield
6.92
16
Antoñito Cordero
Antoñito Cordero Left Wing
6.72
24
Joaquín González
Joaquín González Defensive Midfield
6.79
27
Pelayo Fernández
Pelayo Fernández Left Back
6.52

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Castellón holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Castellón a 11.7-point edge. External projection is Castellón 70.5%, draw 18.5%, and Cádiz 11%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.