Lazio vs Inter preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Coppa Italia
LazioLAZ
InterINT
KICKOFF : Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Final

CONTEXT

The Coppa Italia Final lights up the Stadio Olimpico as Lazio confronts Inter in a clash for silverware during the 2025/2026 season. Inter enters as the stronger side, boasting a power score of 91.82 compared to Lazio's 81.03, yielding a clear 10.8-point advantage. Form metrics further favor the visitors at 41.67 against the hosts' 25, signaling momentum in their camp. This single-leg showdown demands peak execution, with Lazio leveraging home advantage and fervent crowd energy to challenge Inter's superiority. Absent detailed recent outings or league standings, focus shifts to raw capabilities and tactical nous. Inter's edge in overall ratings positions them dominantly, yet cup finals breed unpredictability, where Lazio could spark an upset through resilience and opportunism. Set piece and efficiency insights remain limited, heightening intrigue around open-play battles.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Inter possesses a 10.8-point power advantage over Lazio with scores of 91.82 to 81.03.
  • Form: Inter's form score stands at 41.67, surpassing Lazio's 25.
  • Squad: Squad ratings align with power scores, favoring Inter as the stronger team overall.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition statistics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics show low confidence using proxy data for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to lack of enabled data.
  • Market: Lazio 19% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.7% (Δ+0%) | Inter 57.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Bologna Rank: 79 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 83 W
Como Rank: 84 D
Torino Rank: 75 W
Venezia Rank: 71 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 27
27
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
18.96%
Draw
23.67%
Away Inter
57.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.03
91.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Inter
Power Score
81.03
91.82
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
56
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Inter

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
49 matches
Inter INT Away
Match Record
12
Wins
27
10
Draws
10
27
Losses
12
Goals
49
Goals Scored
86
86
Goals Conceded
49
-37
Goal Difference
+37
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:05:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Motta
40 E. Motta
A. Marušić
77 A. Marušić
M. Fuentes
34 M. Fuentes
A. Romagnoli
13 A. Romagnoli
L. Pellegrini
3 L. Pellegrini
T. Bašić
26 T. Bašić
N. Rovella
6 N. Rovella
F. Dele-Bashiru
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
M. Cancellieri
22 M. Cancellieri
T. Noslin
14 T. Noslin
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma

General Information

Date & Time
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy · Final
Stadium
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity
72698
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Guida

Expected Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
6.34
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
7.15
3
Luca Pellegrini
Luca Pellegrini Defender
6.35
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
6.57
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
7.22
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella Midfielder
6.72
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
6.94
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
7.23
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
6.7
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
6.6
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Attacker
6.71
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

1
Yann Sommer
Yann Sommer Goalkeeper
7.75
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Defender
6.47
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck Defender
6.53
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Defender
6.76
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
6.81
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Alessandro Bastoni Defender
7.26
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
7.38
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan Midfielder
7.28
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
7.12
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
7.47
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
6.52

CONCLUSION

Inter's superior power and form metrics position them as favorites to claim the Coppa Italia trophy against Lazio at Stadio Olimpico. The 10.8-point edge underscores their structural dominance, while better recent scoring hints at sustained pressure. Lazio, though, thrives on home soil, potentially disrupting through crowd fervor and defensive grit. Limited insights into set pieces and efficiency leave room for variance, emphasizing midfield control and clinical finishing. This final tests resolve under lights, where Inter's quality likely prevails, but Lazio's cup pedigree invites a fierce contest demanding flawless execution from both.