Hearts vs Falkirk preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
HeartsHearts
FalkirkFalkirk
KICKOFF : Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Hearts host Falkirk at Tynecastle Park in the 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 Premiership season, with the home side firmly established as league leaders in 1st place while Falkirk languish in 6th. Hearts possess a commanding power score of 74.56 compared to Falkirk's 59.63, translating to a 14.9-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further favor the hosts, with a 37.67 rating dwarfing Falkirk's modest 17.89, suggesting recent momentum lies decisively with Hearts. At home in Edinburgh, Hearts aim to extend their dominance in this domestic league encounter. Limited advanced data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces tempers deeper tactical insights, but the raw power and positional gaps point to a straightforward affair. Falkirk face an uphill battle against a well-oiled Hearts machine poised to capitalize on home advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hearts lead the league in 1st place with a 14.9-point power advantage over 6th-placed Falkirk.
  • Form: Hearts hold a superior form score of 37.67 against Falkirk's 17.89.
  • Squad: Hearts top the Premiership table while Falkirk sit in mid-table at 6th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available for analysis.
  • Market: Hearts 65.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.6% (Δ+0%) | Falkirk 13.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 54 D
Dundee Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
St. Mirren Rank: 56 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
65.67%
Draw
20.62%
Away Falkirk
13.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.56
59.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Falkirk
Power Score
74.56
59.63
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
126
343

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Falkirk

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
19 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record
10
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
30
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:04+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Hogarth
1 N. Hogarth
L. Henderson
5 L. Henderson
C. Allan
20 C. Allan
L. Neilson
15 L. Neilson
F. Lissah
28 F. Lissah
B. Spencer
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
21 D. Tait
C. Miller
29 C. Miller
F. Yeats
14 F. Yeats
K. Wilson
22 K. Wilson
B. Stewart
16 B. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Tynecastle Park
Capacity
20099
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
Euan Anderson

Expected Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.75
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Midfielder
6.94
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
7
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Midfielder
6.98
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Midfielder
6.64
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Centre Forward
7.2
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Right Back
6.73
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Central Midfield
6.92
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Left Back
7.09
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent Centre Back
6.8
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Central Midfield
6.7
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
6.89
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Centre Forward
7.07
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Right Back
6.99
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Left Wing
6.97
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Left Back
6.82
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Defensive Midfield
7.06
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Attacking Midfield
6.62
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Right Back
6.55
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan Left Back
6.83
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Defensive Midfield
6.73
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson Right Wing
6.67

CONCLUSION

Hearts enter this Premiership clash at Tynecastle with overwhelming advantages in power, form, and league standing, positioning them as clear frontrunners against a Falkirk side struggling for consistency. The 14.9-point power gap and superior 37.67 form score highlight Hearts' readiness to dominate possession and chances. While data gaps exist on set pieces and efficiency, the hosts' home strength and top-table pedigree should prevail. Falkirk's challenge lies in disrupting Hearts' rhythm, but structural disparities make an upset unlikely. Expect Hearts to secure a comfortable victory and maintain their title charge.