Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mestalla Thu, 14 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
ValenciaVAL
Rayo VallecanoRAY
KICKOFF : Thu, 14 May - 5:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Valencia host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga (Regular Season) at Estadio de Mestalla. Domestically, Valencia sit 12th in the table while Rayo Vallecano are 10th. Power ranking favours Rayo Vallecano by 0.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rayo Vallecano possesses a 0.9-point power advantage over Valencia at 78.87 to 77.94.
  • Form: Rayo Vallecano leads in form scores with 23.89 against Valencia's 15.22.
  • Squad: League standings place Rayo Vallecano 10th and Valencia 12th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG.
  • xVariable: xG variable data not available for analysis.
  • Market: Valencia 42.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.9% (Δ+0%) | Rayo Vallecano 29.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Valencia C. Corberán Vallet
C. Corberán Vallet
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 L
Girona Rank: 76 W
Mallorca Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 75 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 D
Getafe Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Espanyol Rank: 73 W
Mallorca Rank: 77 L
Elche Rank: 75 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Valencia
42.84%
Draw
27.93%
Away Rayo Vallecano
29.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.94
78.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.94
78.87
League Position
12
10
Global Rank
80
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Valencia — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Valencia Rayo Vallecano

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Valencia VAL Home
23 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
10
Draws
10
5
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
33
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:06:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
S. Dimitrievski
Macedonia
1 S. Dimitrievski
R. Saravia
Argentina
20 R. Saravia
C. Tárrega Requeni
Spain
5 C. Tárrega Requeni
E. Cömert
Switzerland
24 E. Cömert
J. Gayá Peña
Spain
14 J. Gayá Peña
D. López Noguerol
Spain
16 D. López Noguerol
G. Rodríguez
Argentina
2 G. Rodríguez
J. García Vayá
Spain
18 J. García Vayá
L. Rioja González
Spain
11 L. Rioja González
J. Guerra Moreno
Spain
8 J. Guerra Moreno
H. Duro
Spain
9 H. Duro
A. Batalla Barga
Argentina
13 A. Batalla Barga
J. Vertrouwd
Netherlands
33 J. Vertrouwd
N. Mendy
France
32 N. Mendy
F. Lejeune
France
24 F. Lejeune
I. Balliu Campeny
Albania
20 I. Balliu Campeny
G. Gumbau Garriga
Spain
15 G. Gumbau Garriga
P. Ciss
Senegal
6 P. Ciss
L. Espino García
Uruguay
22 L. Espino García
S. Camello Pérez
Spain
10 S. Camello Pérez
J. De Frutos Sebastián
Spain
19 J. De Frutos Sebastián
A. Zurawski
Brazil
9 A. Zurawski

General Information

Date & Time
May 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de Mestalla
Capacity
49430
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Stole Dimitrievski
Stole Dimitrievski Goalkeeper
6.9
5
César Tárrega
César Tárrega Defender
6.72
14
José Gayà
José Gayà Defender
6.72
20
Renzo Saravia
Renzo Saravia Defender
6.61
24
Eray Cömert
Eray Cömert Defender
6.88
2
Guido Rodríguez
Guido Rodríguez Midfielder
6.97
11
Luis Rioja
Luis Rioja Midfielder
6.83
16
Diego López
Diego López Midfielder
6.67
18
Pepelu
Pepelu Midfielder
6.93
8
Javi Guerra
Javi Guerra Attacker
6.69
9
Hugo Duro
Hugo Duro Attacker
6.74

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
6.91
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu Defender
6.53
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Defender
7.09
32
Nobel Mendy
Nobel Mendy Defender
6.79
33
Jozhua Vertrouwd
Jozhua Vertrouwd Defender
6.49
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss Midfielder
6.89
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello Midfielder
6.61
15
Gerard Gumbau
Gerard Gumbau Midfielder
6.66
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Attacker
6.62
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Attacker
6.91
22
Alfonso Espino
Alfonso Espino Attacker
6.69

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Rayo Vallecano holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Rayo Vallecano a 0.9-point edge. External projection is Valencia 42.8%, draw 27.9%, and Rayo Vallecano 29.2%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.