Hull City vs Millwall preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Today - 7:00 PM
Championship
Hull City HUL
Millwall MLW
KICKOFF : Today - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Hull City host Millwall at the MKM Stadium in the first leg of the Championship Promotion Play-offs semi-final, a crucial step toward Premier League promotion. Millwall arrive with a clear edge, holding a power score of 76.14 compared to Hull's 70.62, translating to a 5.5-point advantage that highlights their structural superiority. Form scores further bolster the visitors' case at 23.22 against Hull's 16.06, reflecting stronger momentum heading into this tie. During the regular season, Millwall clinched 3rd place while Hull secured 6th, both teams demonstrating resilience to reach this stage. Home advantage could inspire Hull to contain Millwall's strengths, but the Lions' higher ratings suggest they are primed to seize control early. Lacking detailed efficiency, transition, and set-piece metrics, analysis centers on power dynamics and recent performances, setting up a tactical chess match where discipline and execution will shine. Projections indicate a closely fought battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall holds a structural advantage with a 76.14 power score over Hull City's 70.62, a 5.5-point edge.
  • Form: Millwall enters with better form at 23.22 compared to Hull City's 16.06.
  • Squad: Millwall finished 3rd in the league standings, ahead of Hull City in 6th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data is unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables are not accessible as the add-on is disabled.
  • Market: Hull City 31.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.8% (Δ+0%) | Millwall 40% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
1.59
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 73 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 L
Coventry City Rank: 79 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Stoke City Rank: 66 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
31.23%
Draw
28.82%
Away Millwall
39.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.62
76.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Millwall
Power Score
70.62
76.14
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
195
100

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Millwall

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
26 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
10
Wins
8
8
Draws
8
8
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
30
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:04:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Pandur
1 I. Pandur
L. Coyle
2 L. Coyle
C. Hughes
4 C. Hughes
J. Egan
15 J. Egan
R. Giles
3 R. Giles
M. Crooks
25 M. Crooks
R. Slater
27 R. Slater
M. Belloumi
10 M. Belloumi
J. Gelhardt
21 J. Gelhardt
L. Millar
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
9 O. McBurnie
A. Patterson
13 A. Patterson
Z. Norton Sturge
3 Z. Norton Sturge
J. Cooper
5 J. Cooper
T. Crama
4 T. Crama
R. Leonard
18 R. Leonard
C. De Norre
24 C. De Norre
B. Bannan
67 B. Bannan
T. Ballo
7 T. Ballo
C. Neghli
10 C. Neghli
F. Azeez
11 F. Azeez
M. Ivanović
9 M. Ivanović

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
MKM Stadium
Capacity
25586
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gavin Ward
Richard Woodward
Hristo Karaivanov
David Webb

Expected Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.88
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Centre Forward
7.13
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Right Back
6.76
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Left Back
6.69
15
John Egan
John Egan Left Back
6.87
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Defensive Midfield
6.89
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Defensive Midfield
6.8
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Left Wing
6.81
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Right Wing
6.86
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Right Back
7.03
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Attacking Midfield
6.98
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.75
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Centre Forward
6.81
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Left Back
6.64
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Attacking Midfield
6.85
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Right Wing
7.29
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Right Back
6.86
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Defensive Midfield
6.87
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Right Back
7.06
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Left Back
7.04
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Left Wing
6.66
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan Defensive Midfield
7.11

CONCLUSION

Millwall's superior power score and form make them the team to beat in this semi-final first leg, yet Hull City's home atmosphere at MKM Stadium adds intrigue to the contest. Both sides, fresh from top-six finishes, prioritize solidity knowing the second leg looms. Without granular efficiency or set-piece insights, battles in possession and quick counters will define momentum. Hull must neutralize Millwall's edge through organized defense and clinical finishing, while the visitors aim to build a lead through structured play. This matchup blends caution with ambition, rewarding the side that balances risk and control effectively. Expect tension and quality moments in a tie poised for drama.