Middlesbrough vs Southampton preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Riverside Stadium Yesterday - 11:30 AM
Championship
Middlesbrough MID
Southampton SOU
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 11:30 AM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Middlesbrough host Southampton in Championship (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) at Riverside Stadium. Domestically, Middlesbrough sit 5th in the table while Southampton are 4th. Power ranking favours Middlesbrough by 3.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Middlesbrough possess a 3.9-point power advantage over Southampton with scores of 73.75 to 69.86.
  • Form: Southampton lead in form scores at 35.44 compared to Middlesbrough's 15.67.
  • Squad: No specific squad changes or injury updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable in current analysis.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent from available datasets.
  • Market: Middlesbrough 41.7% (Δ+0.5%) | Draw 28.2% (Δ+0%) | Southampton 30.2% (Δ-0.5%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
1.65
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: 72 D
Watford Rank: 64 W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 54 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 D
Portsmouth Rank: 69 L
Swansea City Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 D
Bristol City Rank: 68 D
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Derby County Rank: 71 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Middlesbrough
41.65%
Draw
28.16%
Away Southampton
30.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Middlesbrough
+0.47%
Draw
+0.01%
Southampton
-0.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.75
69.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Middlesbrough
Southampton
Power Score
73.75
69.86
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
135
71

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Middlesbrough Southampton

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Middlesbrough MID Home
18 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
6
Goals
25
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
25
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Brynn
31 S. Brynn
D. Fry
6 D. Fry
A. Malanda
29 A. Malanda
L. Ayling
12 L. Ayling
C. Brittain
2 C. Brittain
R. McGree
8 R. McGree
A. Morris
18 A. Morris
M. Targett
3 M. Targett
T. Conway
9 T. Conway
M. Whittaker
11 M. Whittaker
D. Strelec
13 D. Strelec
D. Peretz
41 D. Peretz
R. Manning
3 R. Manning
J. Stephens
5 J. Stephens
T. Harwood-Bellis
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Bree
14 J. Bree
C. Jander
20 C. Jander
S. Charles
24 S. Charles
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
F. Azaz
10 F. Azaz
T. Fellows
18 T. Fellows
C. Larin
9 C. Larin

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Riverside Stadium
Capacity
34988
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrew Dallison
Andrew Kitchen
Farai Hallam
Alistair Nelson

Expected Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

31
Sol Brynn
Sol Brynn Goalkeeper
6.77
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Midfielder
7.12
9
Tommy Conway
Tommy Conway Midfielder
6.95
11
Morgan Whittaker
Morgan Whittaker Midfielder
7.07
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Midfielder
7
13
David Strelec
David Strelec Centre Forward
6.77
6
Dael Fry
Dael Fry Right Back
7.12
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Centre Back
6.84
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Left Back
7.13
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Central Midfield
7.26
8
Riley McGree
Riley McGree Central Midfield
6.98
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.96
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Centre Forward
6.84
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Left Wing
7.29
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Right Back
7.23
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Right Wing
6.75
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Defensive Midfield
6.91
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Defensive Midfield
6.99
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Left Back
6.93
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Attacking Midfield
7.08
14
James Bree
James Bree Right Back
6.91
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Left Back
7.22

CONCLUSION

This semi-final opener pits Middlesbrough's home strength and power edge against Southampton's hotter form, promising a tactical battle at Riverside. Carrick's setup favors counter-attacks, potentially frustrating Martin's possession game. A narrow home win seems plausible given the 3.9-point superiority, yet Southampton's momentum could force extra caution. Play-off history underscores tight margins, so expect disciplined defending over open play. Middlesbrough aim to leverage crowd energy for an advantage into leg two, while visitors seek an away goal. Key battles in midfield will dictate control, with set-piece execution possibly tipping scales despite data gaps. Overall, hosts hold slight favor in this high-pressure duel.