Modena vs Juve Stabia preview
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Tue, 12 May - 4:45 PM
Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
Events
1ST-HALF
Steven Nador
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
11'
Salim Diakité
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Statistics
Possession
MOD
45%
JUV
55%
Top Statistics
2
Shots
0
11
Dangerous attacks
1
39
Possession
61
1
Corners
0
5
Free kicks
7
1
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
0
Successful Dribbles Percentage
0
6
Throwins
4
2
Dribble Attempts
2
1
Hit Woodwork
0
1
Goal Kicks
2
Attacking
29
Attacks
14
Possession
60
Successful Long Passes Percentage
38
20
Long Passes
16
12
Successful Long Passes
6
71
Successful Passes Percentage
88
71
Successful Passes
141
100
Passes
161
1
Key Passes
0
Defensive
3
Interceptions
1
8
Tackles
2
Build-up
2
Total Crosses
0
Discipline
7
Fouls
5
0
Offsides
2
Lineup
Referee :
Francesco Fourneau
Manager ▼
A. Sottil
Coach
Starting XI ▼
22
Michele Pezzolato
Goalkeeper
7.12 19
Steven Nador
Defender
6.97
20
Bryant Nieling
Defender
6.93 77
Daniel Tonoli
Defender
7.13 5
Alessandro Sersanti
Midfielder
6.86 7
Francesco Zampano
Midfielder
6.78 8
Simone Santoro
Midfielder
7.07 17
Yanis Massolin
Midfielder
6.96 98
Luca Zanimacchia
Midfielder
6.94 10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Attacker
6.96 99
Manuel De Luca
Attacker
6.82 Substitutes ▼
13
Abdullah Laidani
Goalkeeper
78
Fabrizio Bagheria
Goalkeeper
8.26 2
Gady Beyuku
Defender
6.58 25
Alessandro Dellavalle
Defender
6.91 28
Davide Adorni
Defender
6.84 29
Matteo Cotali
Defender
6.63 18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Midfielder
6.76 71
Samuel Wiafe
Midfielder
6.6 9
Ettore Gliozzi
Attacker
6.87 11
Pedro Mendes
Attacker
6.7 90
Antonio Imputato
Attacker
6.61 92
Grégoire Defrel
Attacker
6.72
Referee :
Francesco Fourneau
Manager ▼
I. Abate
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Alessandro Confente
Goalkeeper
6.82 6
Marco Bellich
Defender
6.79 33
Andrea Giorgini
Defender
6.39 46
Salim Diakité
Defender
6.68
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Midfielder
6.82 29
Omar Correia
Midfielder
6.83 55
Giuseppe Leone
Midfielder
6.94 77
Alessio Cacciamani
Midfielder
6.61 98
Nicola Mosti
Midfielder
6.86 37
Fabio Maistro
Attacker
6.93 Substitutes ▼
23
Pietro Boer
Goalkeeper
6.61 14
Christian Dalle Mura
Defender
6.86 21
Sheriff Kassama
Defender
6.59 
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Midfielder
6.55 8
Kevin Zeroli
Midfielder
6.71 10
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder
6.63 17
Aaron Ciammaglichella
Midfielder
6.44 28
Emanuele Torrasi
Midfielder
6.72 7
Rareș Burnete
Attacker
6.73 9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Attacker
6.74 27
Leonardo Candellone
Attacker
6.81 CONTEXT
The game is in first half, with Modena and Juve Stabia in live competition. The live picture remains open compared with the pre-match baseline. Possession split is approximately 0% to Modena and 100% to Juve Stabia.
TL;DR
-
Live state: At minute 0 of first half, play remains qualitatively even with no xG or cards, and possession fully held by Juve Stabia.
-
Structural vs live: Live control mirrors pre-match structural favoritism toward Modena despite early possession skew.
-
Projection vs live: Projections positioning Modena ahead align neutrally with the embryonic live balance.
-
xG trend: xG stands at null for both teams, consistent with no chances created at kickoff.
-
Possession profile: Modena 0% vs Juve Stabia 100% possession.
-
Event impact: No cards or reds have influenced play, keeping the game in line with pre-match neutral setup.
-
Second-half outlook: Live efficiency trend is in line with; The remainder should be decided by execution in transitions and set plays.
-
Market: Modena 40.7% (Δ-0.7%) | Draw 36% (Δ-0.7%) | Juve Stabia 23.4% (Δ+1.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Fourneau
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
A. Sottil
VS
I. Abate
1.15
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.26
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino
Rank: 53
L
Reggiana
Rank: 47
W
Monza
Rank: 66
L
Frosinone
Rank: 65
L
Catanzaro
Rank: 60
D
Südtirol
Rank: 52
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol
Rank: 51
D
Frosinone
Rank: 67
L
Pescara
Rank: 48
D
Catanzaro
Rank: 59
D
Cesena
Rank: 52
W
Venezia
Rank: 71
L
6
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 2
2
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Modena
40.66%
Draw
35.97%
Juve Stabia
23.38%
Movement
Changes since opening
Modena
-0.73%
Draw
-0.65%
Juve Stabia
+1.39%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.08
56.54
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Modena
Juve Stabia
Power Score
57.08
56.54
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
587
607
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Modena
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Modena Juve Stabia
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Modena
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Juve Stabia
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Modena
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Juve Stabia
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Modena
Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Modena
Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Modena
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Modena
vs
Juve Stabia
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Modena
Juve Stabia
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Modena
0.00
Juve Stabia
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Modena
Juve Stabia
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Modena
0.00
Juve Stabia
0.00
Modena
Juve Stabia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- MOD had peak pressure around 23'.
- MOD started the game with stronger pressure.
MOD Pressure
JUV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
MOD reached the top pressure at 23' (54.53).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Modena
MOD
Home
10
matches
Juve Stabia
JUV
Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
20
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-05-12T16:30:26+00:00
PLAYERS CURRENTLY PLAYING
Match Formation
3-5-2
Match Formation
3-5-1-1
22 M. Pezzolato
77 D. Tonoli
19 S. Nador
20 B. Nieling
98 L. Zanimacchia
17 Y. Massolin
8 S. Santoro
5 A. Sersanti
7 F. Zampano
10 G. Ambrosino
99 M. De Luca
1 A. Confente
6 M. Bellich
33 A. Giorgini
46 S. Diakite
77 A. Cacciamani
29 O. Correia
55 G. Leone
98 N. Mosti
24 L. Carissoni
37 F. Maistro
90 A. Okoro
General Information
Date & Time
May 12, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Braglia
Capacity
21092
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Francesco Fourneau
CONCLUSION
As the first half ticks past minute 0, Modena faces an early test against Juve Stabia's total possession grip, yet the qualitative equilibrium holds firm without xG or disciplinary interruptions. Pregame signals underscoring Modena's superiority suggest this visitor dominance may prove temporary, with projections remaining in neutral sync. Expect Modena to ramp up pressure and wrest back territorial control, leveraging their structural advantages to tilt momentum. The absence of reds ensures an open contest, priming intriguing developments as both sides settle into rhythm and chances emerge.
Match Commentary