Kilmarnock vs Dundee preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
KilmarnockKIL
DundeeDUD
KICKOFF : Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Kilmarnock host Dundee at Rugby Park in the 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 Premiership season, a crucial mid-table encounter. Dundee enter as the marginally stronger side with a power score of 60.07 against Kilmarnock's 59.43, holding a 0.6-point advantage. However, Kilmarnock boast superior recent form at 16.28 compared to Dundee's 9.28, signaling momentum heading into this home fixture. League positions underscore the tightness, with Dundee in 9th and Kilmarnock 11th. Home advantage at Rugby Park could prove pivotal for Kilmarnock, who seek to overturn the power gap through sharp execution. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces remain unavailable due to limited xG data, shifting emphasis to core strengths and tactical discipline. This matchup blends subtle edges in form and power, promising a closely contested affair where execution under lights will decide the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Dundee holds a narrow 0.6-point power advantage over Kilmarnock with scores of 60.07 to 59.43.
  • Form: Kilmarnock leads in form with a score of 16.28 versus Dundee's 9.28.
  • Squad: Dundee occupies 9th place in the league while Kilmarnock sits 11th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not available for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable as xG information is not accessible.
  • xVariable: No xG variable data provided for either team.
  • Market: Kilmarnock 54.2% (Δ+1.2%) | Draw 24.2% (Δ-0.3%) | Dundee 21.6% (Δ-0.9%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 60 D
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Livingston Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 55 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 59 D
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Hearts Rank: 75 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 17 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
54.24%
Draw
24.15%
Away Dundee
21.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kilmarnock
+1.2%
Draw
-0.32%
Dundee
-0.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.43
60.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Power Score
59.43
60.07
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
521
494

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Dundee

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
32 matches
Dundee DUD Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
17
Draws
17
7
Losses
8
Goals
43
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
43
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T17:01:16+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. O'Hara
13 K. O'Hara
D. Wright
7 D. Wright
L. Graham
22 L. Graham
R. Astley
4 R. Astley
B. Halliday
16 B. Halliday
E. Hamilton
48 E. Hamilton
Y. Dhanda
21 Y. Dhanda
T. Yogane
17 T. Yogane
J. Westley
19 J. Westley
C. Congreve
20 C. Congreve
S. Murray
15 S. Murray

General Information

Date & Time
May 12, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
S. Murdoch
Calum Scott
D. Roome
Alaistair Taylor

Expected Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.18
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Attacker
6.51
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Centre Forward
6.91
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Attacker
6.68
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Left Back
6.62
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Left Back
6.8
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Central Midfield
6.91
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Right Back
6.64
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Central Midfield
6.56
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Right Back
6.63
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Central Midfield
6.8
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

13
Kieran O'Hara
Kieran O'Hara Goalkeeper
7.39
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray Centre Forward
6.64
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Right Back
6.87
7
Drey Wright
Drey Wright Left Back
6.75
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Right Back
6.81
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley Attacking Midfield
6.7
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Right Wing
6.77
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Left Back
7
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane Left Wing
6.74
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Defensive Midfield
6.83
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Defensive Midfield
6.8

CONCLUSION

Dundee's slight power edge positions them as the stronger team on balance, yet Kilmarnock's stronger form score and Rugby Park home advantage offer a compelling counter. In a league where positions are tight—9th versus 11th—every point counts in the 2nd Phase. Absent detailed efficiency, transition, or set-piece insights, the contest hinges on form execution and structural resilience. Kilmarnock's momentum suggests potential to neutralize Dundee's superiority, fostering a tactical chess match. Home support could tip scales, making this a defining test of adaptability and precision.