Aberdeen vs St. Mirren preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
AberdeenABE
St. MirrenSTM
KICKOFF : Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Aberdeen host St. Mirren at Pittodrie Stadium in the Scottish Premiership's 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 season. The Dons sit 8th in the table with a power score of 60.21, holding a clear 4.6-point advantage over the 10th-placed Buddies' 55.63 rating, marking Aberdeen as the stronger team overall. Form also tilts towards the home side, boasting 20.94 compared to St. Mirren's modest 13.11. At Pittodrie, Aberdeen's home advantage could prove decisive in this mid-table clash. While detailed efficiency and set-piece metrics remain unavailable due to low-confidence data and proxy usage, the underlying power and form edges suggest Aberdeen enter as favorites. St. Mirren will aim to disrupt with resilience, but the hosts' superior standing sets the tone for a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aberdeen hold a 4.6-point power advantage with a 60.21 rating over St. Mirren's 55.63.
  • Form: Aberdeen's form score of 20.94 outpaces St. Mirren's 13.11.
  • Squad: Aberdeen occupy 8th place, ahead of St. Mirren in 10th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition statistics are not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy metrics.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables inaccessible as xG data unavailable.
  • Market: Aberdeen 42.2% (Δ-0.3%) | Draw 27.1% (Δ+0.1%) | St. Mirren 30.7% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 62 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 56 L
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 58 L
Livingston Rank: 53 L
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Aberdeen Rank: 60 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 18 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
42.19%
Draw
27.14%
Away St. Mirren
30.67%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aberdeen
-0.28%
Draw
+0.13%
St. Mirren
+0.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.21
55.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
St. Mirren
Power Score
60.21
55.63
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
488
634

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen St. Mirren

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 58 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
58 matches
St. Mirren STM Away
Match Record
24
Wins
16
18
Draws
18
16
Losses
24
Goals
81
Goals Scored
58
58
Goals Conceded
81
+23
Goal Difference
-23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T17:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
D. Mitov
1 D. Mitov
M. Knoester
5 M. Knoester
L. Morrison
23 L. Morrison
G. Molloy
21 G. Molloy
J. Milne
22 J. Milne
A. Aremu
32 A. Aremu
D. Geiger
8 D. Geiger
E. Gyamfi
77 E. Gyamfi
S. Armstrong
16 S. Armstrong
T. Olusanya
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
15 K. Nisbet

General Information

Date & Time
May 12, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
David Dickinson
Graeme Stewart
Chris Rae
Dan McFarlane

Expected Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.82
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
6.5
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Midfielder
6.74
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.87
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.68
5
Mats Knoester
Mats Knoester Right Back
6.85
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Centre Back
6.62
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Left Back
6.76
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Attacking Midfield
6.99
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Central Midfield
6.72
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Central Midfield
6.77
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

27
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair Goalkeeper
6.65
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser Midfielder
6.8
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
6.79
7
Roland Idowu
Roland Idowu Attacker
6.56
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
6.88
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Centre Back
6.74
22
Marcus Fraser
Marcus Fraser Right Back
6.73
8
Jacob Devaney
Jacob Devaney Central Midfield
6.84
16
Allan Campbell
Allan Campbell Central Midfield
6.72
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Left Back
7.01
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Central Midfield
6.85

CONCLUSION

Aberdeen's power and form edges position them favorably against St. Mirren at Pittodrie. The 4.6-point superiority and higher league standing underscore the Dons' structural dominance, while superior recent metrics add momentum. Lacking granular set-piece or efficiency insights, the matchup hinges on Aberdeen harnessing home support to overcome a resilient St. Mirren. Expect a competitive battle where Aberdeen's advantages likely yield a narrow victory, consolidating their mid-table push in the Premiership's 2nd Phase.