Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal
Vitória GuimarãesVSC
Casa PiaCPAC
KICKOFF :
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Vitória Guimarães host Casa Pia in Liga Portugal (Regular Season) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Domestically, Vitória Guimarães sit 7th in the table while Casa Pia are 16th. Power ranking favours Vitória Guimarães by 10.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Vitória Guimarães possesses a 10.3-point power advantage over Casa Pia.
  • Form: Both teams enter with form scores of zero and no last outing data.
  • Squad: Vitória Guimarães ranks 7th and Casa Pia 16th in domestic league positions.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable with low confidence and proxy used.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as data add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Vitória Guimarães 55.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.7% (Δ+0%) | Casa Pia 20.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 58 D
Tondela Rank: 61 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tondela Rank: 60 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Santa Clara Rank: 64 D
Alverca Rank: 67 L
Benfica Rank: 87 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vitória Guimarães
55.07%
Draw
24.73%
Away Casa Pia
20.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.09
61.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
Power Score
72.09
61.75
League Position
7
16
Global Rank
160
436

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Casa Pia

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
David Sousa
43 David Sousa
D. Bandeira
3 D. Bandeira
J. Goulart Silva
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Conté
5 A. Conté
F. Tiago Silva
32 F. Tiago Silva
T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
21 T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
J. Freitas Silva Marques
11 J. Freitas Silva Marques
D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
10 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
K. Prieto Machado
19 K. Prieto Machado

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity
30008
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luí­s Carlos Mateus Filipe
Rui Miguel Martins Teixeira
Pedro Mota
Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Expected Lineup

Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
6.77
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Centre Forward
6.88
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Right Back
6.95
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Right Wing
6.73
2
Maga
Maga Left Back
6.7
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Left Back
6.75
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Defensive Midfield
6.83
20
Samu
Samu Attacking Midfield
6.94
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Defensive Midfield
6.83
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Left Wing
6.7
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Right Back
6.68
Referee : Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
6.66
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté Midfielder
6.72
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
6.77
10
Dailon Livramento
Dailon Livramento Centre Forward
6.58
11
João Marques
João Marques Attacker
6.73
19
Kevin Prieto
Kevin Prieto Attacker
6.59
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Right Back
6.61
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Left Back
6.74
3
Kaly
Kaly Centre Back
6.47
32
Kiki
Kiki Central Midfield
6.83
21
Tiago Morais
Tiago Morais Central Midfield
6.6

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Vitória Guimarães holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Vitória Guimarães a 10.3-point edge. External projection is Vitória Guimarães 54.9%, draw 24.6%, and Casa Pia 20.5%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.