Santa Clara vs Nacional preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio de São Miguel
Liga Portugal
Santa ClaraCDSC
NacionalCDN
KICKOFF :
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Liga Portugal regular season at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara welcomes Nacional in a pivotal mid-table encounter for the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 13th, the hosts hold a narrow edge over 14th-placed visitors, bolstered by a power score of 66.58 against Nacional's 64.75, translating to a 1.8-point advantage. This matchup pits two evenly matched sides with domestic league positions reflecting their competitive parity. Lacking recent outing details or form records, both teams approach on neutral footing, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Santa Clara's home venue could prove decisive, while Nacional seeks to exploit any openings. Set-piece data remains unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, leaving efficiency and transition play as potential differentiators in this closely contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Santa Clara enjoys a 1.8-point power advantage over Nacional.
  • Form: Both teams enter with form scores of zero and no recent outing data.
  • Squad: League positions show Santa Clara at 13th and Nacional at 14th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency metrics are available for either side.
  • Transition: Transition play data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG data.
  • xVariable: xG data is unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Santa Clara 41% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 29.7% (Δ+-0%) | Nacional 29.3% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Santa Clara Petit
Petit
VS
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: 65 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 W
Famalicão Rank: 74 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Santa Clara
41.02%
Draw
29.72%
Away Nacional
29.26%

Movement

Changes since opening
Santa Clara
-0.2%
Draw
-0.01%
Nacional
+0.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.58
64.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Santa Clara
Nacional
Power Score
66.58
64.75
League Position
13
14
Global Rank
290
340

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Santa Clara — Opponent-weighted form score
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Santa Clara Nacional

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio de São Miguel
Capacity
13277
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Hélder Carvalho
José Manuel Graça Mira
Rúben João Rodrigues da Silva
João Pedro Sousa Mendes

Expected Lineup

Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Gabriel Batista
Gabriel Batista Goalkeeper
6.78
10
Gabriel Silva
Gabriel Silva Attacker
6.88
11
Brenner
Brenner Attacker
6.7
39
Gonçalo Paciência
Gonçalo Paciência Centre Forward
6.72
65
José Luís Rocha Tavares
José Luís Rocha Tavares Central Midfield
6.68
2
Diogo Calila
Diogo Calila Right Back
6.49
5
Guilherme Romão
Guilherme Romão Left Back
6.72
21
Frederico Venâncio
Frederico Venâncio Left Back
6.86
23
Sidney Lima
Sidney Lima Right Back
6.86
77
Gustavo Klismahn
Gustavo Klismahn Defensive Midfield
6.8
8
Pedro Ferreira
Pedro Ferreira Central Midfield
6.76
Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
6.95
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron Attacker
6.68
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Centre Forward
7.2
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Attacker
6.94
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares Defensive Midfield
6.64
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Left Back
6.84
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Right Back
6.76
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr Central Midfield
6.76
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi Central Midfield
6.53
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Left Back
6.87
33
Francisco Gonçalves
Francisco Gonçalves Right Back
6.65

CONCLUSION

Santa Clara's slight power edge and home advantage at Estádio de São Miguel position them as marginal favorites against Nacional in this Liga Portugal clash. With both sides mid-table and form-neutral, the match hinges on structural discipline and opportunistic play. Absent detailed efficiency or set-piece insights, expect a cagey affair where Santa Clara's superior rating could shine through in key moments. Nacional's resilience keeps them in contention, but the hosts' 1.8-point lead suggests a narrow victory path. Fans anticipate a tight contest defined by fine margins.