Ajax vs FC Utrecht preview

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Johan Cruijff Arena Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a shocking upset, FC Utrecht overcame Ajax 1-2 on the road, defying expectations as the stronger home side. Ajax held 64% possession to Utrecht's 36% but could not break the deadlock effectively. The first half ended 0-0, with both teams cautious, before Utrecht scored twice in the second period to clinch victory. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. This outcome marks a significant structural deviation of 79.1% favoring Utrecht, who capitalized on limited chances. Efficiency levels for both squads stayed in line with projections, though lack of xG data limits deeper insights into chance quality. Ajax's control failed to yield goals, allowing Utrecht's opportunistic play to prevail.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Utrecht produced a significant 79.1% structural deviation by winning as underdogs.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result misaligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Manschot
J. Manschot
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Diks
M. Diks
2nd Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Overtoom
F. Overtoom
1st Assistant 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Blank
E. Blank
4th Official 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
VS
FC Utrecht R. Jans
R. Jans
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: 86 D
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 W
FC Twente Rank: 77 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
Excelsior Rank: 58 L
Telstar Rank: 63 W
PSV Rank: 86 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 W
FC Twente Rank: 77 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 9 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ajax
57.06%
Draw
22.08%
Away FC Utrecht
20.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ajax
+50.79%
Draw
-68.4%
FC Utrecht
+17.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.93
72.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ajax
FC Utrecht
Power Score
75.93
72.13
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
101
159

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Ajax Opponent-weighted form score
FC Utrecht Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ajax FC Utrecht

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Ajax

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

FC Utrecht

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Utrecht
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.52
44.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.58
28.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ajax -1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Utrecht +1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
FC Utrecht
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ajax ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Utrecht
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ajax FC Utrecht
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ajax FC Utrecht
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ajax
FC Utrecht
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Ajax
vs
FC Utrecht
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ajax FC Utrecht
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ajax FC Utrecht
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Ajax
FC Utrecht
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AJA had peak pressure around 98'.
  • AJA started the game with stronger pressure.
AJA Pressure UTR Pressure
Pressure Index: AJA reached the top pressure at 98' (77.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ajax AJA Home
40 matches
FC Utrecht UTR Away
Match Record
18
Wins
13
9
Draws
9
13
Losses
18
Goals
68
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
68
+17
Goal Difference
-17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Barkas
Greece
1 V. Barkas
S. Elkarouani
Morocco
16 S. Elkarouani
A. Engwanda
Belgium
27 A. Engwanda
J. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
11 J. Karlsson
S. Haller
Substitution
Ivory Coast
91 S. Haller

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Johan Cruijff Arena
Capacity
55885
Attendance
53632
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jeroen Manschot
Mario Diks
Franca Overtoom
Erwin Blank

Statistics

Possession
AJA
59%
UTR
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 14
65 Dangerous attacks 41
64 Possession 36
4 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 7
13 Successful Headers 27
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
6 Goal Kicks 9
9 Throwins 11
13 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Goal Attempts 9
75 Ball Safe 78
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 1

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 0
120 Attacks 78

Possession

662 Passes 367
27 Successful Long Passes 30
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
580 Successful Passes 297
12 Key Passes 13
55 Long Passes 56
88 Successful Passes Percentage 81

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
27 Tackles 19
4 Saves 5
53 Duels Won 62

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Midfielder
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur
Midfielder73'
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Midfielder
18
Davy Klaassen
Davy Klaassen
Midfielder58'
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
17
Oliver Edvardsen
Oliver Edvardsen
Attacker83'
9
Kasper Dolberg
Kasper Dolberg Attacker
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst
Attacker57'
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
43
Rayane Bounida
Rayane Bounida
Attacker73'
Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI

1
Vasilios Barkas
Vasilios Barkas Goalkeeper
3
Mike van der Hoorn
16
Souffian El Karouani
Souffian El Karouani Defender
23
Niklas Vesterlund
44
Mike Eerdhuijzen
Mike Eerdhuijzen Defender
24
Nick Viergever
Nick Viergever
Defender66'
10
Yoann Cathline
Yoann Cathline Midfielder
2
Siebe Horemans
Siebe Horemans
Defender90+2'
11
Jesper Karlsson
Jesper Karlsson Midfielder
15
Adrian Blake
Adrian Blake
Attacker66'
20
Dani de Wit
Dani de Wit Midfielder
21
Gjivai Zechiël
Gjivai Zechiël Midfielder
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Alonzo Engwanda Midfielder
91
Sébastien Haller
Sébastien Haller Attacker
9
David Min
David Min
Attacker75'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Header / 3rd Goal
90+2'
Event
Siebe Horemans Yoann Cathline
9th Substitution
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
84'
Event
Oliver Edvardsen Jorthy Mokio
8th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Header / 1st Goal
75'
Event
David Min Sébastien Haller
7th Substitution
Event
Sean Steur Youri Regeer
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Rayane Bounida Steven Berghuis
5th Substitution
73'
66'
Event
Adrian Blake Jesper Karlsson
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Nick Viergever Mike Eerdhuijzen
4th Substitution
Event
Davy Klaassen Oscar Gloukh
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Wout Weghorst  Kasper Dolberg
1st Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Persistent fouling / 3rd Yellowcard
15'
Event
Jesper Karlsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Foul committed by Souffian El Karouani of FC Utrecht.
67
Attempt Attempt
Sébastien Haller's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Souffian El Karouani.
67
Attempt Attempt
Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. Sébastien Haller provided the assist.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Oliver Edvardsen replaces Jorthy Mokio.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sean Steur of Ajax receives a yellow card for a foul.
89
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high. The assist was provided by Wout Weghorst.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alonzo Engwanda's shot from outside the box is blocked. Dani de Wit provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Sean Steur of Ajax takes a left-footed shot from outside the box that is close but misses the top left corner. Assist by Mika Godts.
90
Attempt Attempt
Davy Klaassen from Ajax missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball wide to the left. The assist came from Wout Weghorst, who provided a header.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Siebe Horemans replaces Yoann Cathline.
90
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Blake's shot from outside the box is blocked. Souffian El Karouani provided the assist.
77
Update Update
Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Sean Steur replaces Youri Regeer.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: David Min replaces Sébastien Haller.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Utrecht takes the lead 1-0 against Ajax. Niklas Vesterlund scores with a header from close range, assisted by Gjivai Zechiël following a corner.
82
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio of Ajax won a free kick in the attacking area.
74
Update Update
Adrian Blake of FC Utrecht won a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Corner Corner
Ajax is awarded a corner after Dani de Wit concedes.
82
Update Update
Foul by Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Gaaei of Ajax.
79
Update Update
Dani de Wit of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
80
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Lucas Rosa concedes.
87
Attempt Attempt
Davy Klaassen's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rayane Bounida provided the assist.
68
Attempt Attempt
Gjavai Zechiël's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Dani de Wit provided the assist.
67
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Steven Berghuis concedes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Rayane Bounida's shot from outside the box is blocked.
86
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax won a free kick on the right wing.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Sean Steur of Ajax.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Utrecht takes the lead 2-1 as Mike van der Hoorn scores with a header from close range into the right corner, assisted by Souffian El Karouani's cross following a corner.
71
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht shoots with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it goes high. The assist was by Gjivai Zechiël after a fast break.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Rayane Bounida replaces Steven Berghuis.
89
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Rayane Bounida of Ajax takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht. The assist comes from Wout Weghorst with a header.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Adrian Blake of FC Utrecht attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Maarten Paes of Ajax. The assist comes from Nick Viergever.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
New attacking attempt. David Min from FC Utrecht takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Maarten Paes from Ajax. The assist was made by Dani de Wit.
90
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Josip Sutalo concedes.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorthy Mokio of Ajax.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax equalizes at 1-1 with Wout Weghorst scoring from the center of the box with a right-footed shot into the top left corner. The assist comes from Rayane Bounida, who provided a cross after a corner.
88
Update Update
Gjivai Zechiël of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Ajax losing 1-2 to FC Utrecht.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Wout Weghorst replaces Kasper Dolberg.
56
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts from Ajax had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went high. Oscar Gloukh provided the assist.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Adrian Blake replaces Jesper Karlsson.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Utrecht: Nick Viergever replaces Mike Eerdhuijzen.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Davy Klaassen replaces Oscar Gloukh.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
New attacking attempt. Oscar Gloukh from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by FC Utrecht's goalkeeper Vasilios Barkas in the center of the goal.
65
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax is penalized for dangerous play.
65
Update Update
Alonzo Engwanda from FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Alonzo Engwanda of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score Ajax 0, FC Utrecht 0.
48
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sébastien Haller of FC Utrecht.
50
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg of Ajax committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Souffian El Karouani of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
2
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Vasilios Barkas concedes.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht.
8
Update Update
Josip Sutalo of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
17
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Josip Sutalo concedes.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jesper Karlsson from FC Utrecht receives a yellow card for a foul.
22
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
26
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Oscar Gloukh from Ajax shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Vasilios Barkas from FC Utrecht saves it in the right corner.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jesper Karlsson from FC Utrecht had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, just missing the goal. The assist came from Dani de Wit with a cross.
19
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht.
36
Corner Corner
Kasper Dolberg from Ajax makes an attacking attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Vasilios Barkas from FC Utrecht. The assist comes from Anton Gaaei.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Gaaei of Ajax.
38
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
42
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Youri Regeer of Ajax.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht receives a yellow card.
55
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
8
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Yoann Cathline of FC Utrecht takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Maarten Paes of Ajax. The assist came from Mike Eerdhuijzen.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Steven Berghuis of Ajax receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Ajax and FC Utrecht drawing 0-0.
3
Corner Corner
Ajax has been awarded a corner after Mike van der Hoorn conceded it.
2
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Youri Regeer from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht. The assist was provided by Steven Berghuis.
3
Corner Corner
Jorthy Mokio of Ajax had a missed header from the center of the box, shooting to the left. The assist came from Steven Berghuis, who delivered a cross following a corner.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Steven Berghuis of Ajax.
32
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Jesper Karlsson from FC Utrecht had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Dani de Wit.
37
Update Update
Yoann Cathline from FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
39
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Youri Regeer concedes.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
New attacking attempt. Sébastien Haller of FC Utrecht shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but Maarten Paes of Ajax saves it in the top center of the goal.
46
Update Update
Fouled by Sébastien Haller of FC Utrecht.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Rosa of Ajax.
22
Update Update
Fouled by Mike van der Hoorn of FC Utrecht.
34
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts from Ajax hits the left post with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Oscar Gloukh.
11
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
8
Update Update
Dani de Wit from FC Utrecht committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Jesper Karlsson of FC Utrecht.
9
Corner Corner
Ajax is awarded a corner after Niklas Vesterlund concedes.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Youri Regeer from Ajax shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but the shot goes high.
38
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Alonzo Engwanda of FC Utrecht won a free kick in defense.
29
Corner Corner
FC Utrecht wins a corner after Lucas Rosa concedes.

CONCLUSION

FC Utrecht's 1-2 victory at Ajax exemplifies football's volatility, where superior possession and team strength do not guarantee success. Ajax dominated with 64% ball control yet conceded twice after a 0-0 halftime, exposing vulnerabilities in conversion. Utrecht's efficiency in limited opportunities proved decisive, aligning with steady efficiency metrics amid a 79.1% structural deviation. Without xG details or disruptions like red cards, the result spotlights clinical execution over dominance. This outcome prompts reflection on Ajax's finishing while praising Utrecht's resilience and counterattacking prowess.