NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen preview
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
NAC Breda claimed a 2-0 victory over SC Heerenveen in a match that saw the home side overcome pre-match perceptions of Heerenveen as the stronger team. NAC Breda took the lead in the first half with a 1-0 scoreline at halftime, maintaining control despite Heerenveen's slight 52% possession edge compared to NAC's 48%. The second goal came after the break, securing the win without any red cards disrupting play. This result represents a significant structural deviation of 62.1% in favor of NAC Breda, highlighting their effective execution against expectations. No major tactical adjustments were noted in the second half, and efficiency metrics stayed in line with assessments. The outcome proved market-aligned, underscoring NAC Breda's clinical finishing and defensive solidity in a tightly contested affair.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: NAC Breda exhibited a significant 62.1% structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with pre-match assessments.
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xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment evaluation.
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Market alignment: Match outcome aligned with pre-market probabilities.
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xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to lack of data.
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Event impact: No major events such as red cards influenced the match flow.
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Red card distortion: Absence of red cards resulted in no distortion to the scoreline.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Movement
Changes since opening
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Team Power Ranking
i
56.45
69.3
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
NAC Breda
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
NAC Breda
⚠ Proxy
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
NAC Breda
SC Heerenveen
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- NAC had peak pressure around 38'.
- NAC started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:02:53+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
NAC Breda
vs
AZ
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: AFAS Stadion
SC Heerenveen
vs
Ajax
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼














Substitutes ▼







Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼














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Match Commentary