Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
ToulouseTOU
Olympique LyonnaisLYO
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Toulouse host Olympique Lyonnais at the Stadium de Toulouse in a pivotal Ligue 1 regular season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. The 10th-placed hosts confront third-placed visitors who wield a commanding 9.7-point power advantage, with Lyon's 83.27 rating dwarfing Toulouse's 73.53. Form metrics reinforce Lyon's edge, showing 36.39 against Toulouse's 18.61, signaling the visitors' sharper momentum. Lyon, deemed the stronger outfit, chase vital points to cement their top-tier status, while Toulouse seek home comforts to climb the table. Limited data on efficiency and set pieces leaves room for surprises, but Lyon's superior standing and ratings point to control. Expect a contest where Toulouse's resilience meets Lyon's quality in a battle for three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Olympique Lyonnais hold a 9.7-point power advantage with 83.27 rating over Toulouse's 73.53.
  • Form: Lyon show superior form at 36.39 compared to Toulouse's 18.61.
  • Squad: Toulouse sit 10th in Ligue 1 while Olympique Lyonnais occupy 3rd place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not detailed in available analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with no xG available and proxy used.
  • xVariable: xG variable insights unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market: Toulouse 22.7% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 23.8% (Δ-0.2%) | Olympique Lyonnais 53.5% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 W
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Monaco Rank: 80 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 21
21
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
22.65%
Draw
23.84%
Away Olympique Lyonnais
53.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Toulouse
+0.07%
Draw
-0.23%
Olympique Lyonnais
+0.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.53
83.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Power Score
73.53
83.27
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
138
45

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
37 matches
Olympique Lyonnais LYO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
9
Draws
9
21
Losses
7
Goals
38
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
38
-27
Goal Difference
+27
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:38:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
W. Kamanzi
Norway
12 W. Kamanzi
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
S. Hidalgo Massa
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
J. Russell-Rowe
Canada
13 J. Russell-Rowe
Y. Gboho
France
10 Y. Gboho

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bastien Dechepy
Julien Haulbert
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Florent Batta

Lineup

Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.71
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.05
12
Warren Kamanzi
Warren Kamanzi Midfielder
6.54
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Midfielder
7.3
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.1
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
6.48
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
7.01
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Attacker
6.75
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
6.59
Referee : Bastien Dechepy

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Greif
Dominik Greif Goalkeeper
7.01
16
Abner
Abner Defender
6.87
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
7.03
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata Defender
6.83
98
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Defender
6.8
7
Adam Karabec
Adam Karabec Midfielder
6.72
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso Midfielder
7.28
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton Midfielder
7.09
9
Endrick
Endrick Attacker
7.35
17
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira Attacker
7.03
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk Attacker
6.93

CONCLUSION

Olympique Lyonnais arrive at Stadium de Toulouse as clear frontrunners, backed by a 9.7-point power edge, stronger form of 36.39, and third-place standing against Toulouse's 10th. The visitors' quality should enable possession dominance and chance creation, testing Toulouse's resolve at home. With efficiency and set piece details sparse, open-play execution becomes key, where Lyon's superior metrics shine. Toulouse must harness crowd energy for counters, but overcoming the gap looks challenging. This Ligue 1 clash tilts towards Lyon securing a statement win to fuel their title push.