Monaco vs LOSC Lille preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Louis II. Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
MonacoASM
LOSC LilleLOSC
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Monaco welcomes LOSC Lille to Stade Louis II. for a pivotal Ligue 1 regular season fixture in the 2025/2026 season. Lille occupies 4th place, just ahead of Monaco in 6th, as both chase European qualification. Power ratings tilt marginally toward the visitors at 80.71 against Monaco's 80.13, a slim 0.6-point edge underscoring the matchup's balance. Recent form strongly favors Lille with a 38.67 score versus Monaco's 26.44, hinting at greater consistency from the away side. Home support could ignite Monaco's attack, yet Lille's higher standing reflects squad depth and resilience. Midfield dominance will shape possession, while transitions demand vigilance from backlines. Set-piece execution carries intrigue despite limited data availability. This encounter promises intensity, with tactical discipline likely separating the sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lille possesses a slight power advantage of 0.6 points over Monaco with scores of 80.71 to 80.13.
  • Form: Lille demonstrates superior recent form at 38.67 compared to Monaco's 26.44.
  • Squad: Lille ranks 4th in the league, one position above Monaco in 6th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition statistics are not available in current datasets.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics unavailable due to absent xG data and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Monaco 39.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25% (Δ+0%) | LOSC Lille 35.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
VS
LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.9
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Toulouse Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 68 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 71 W
Nice Rank: 69 D
Toulouse Rank: 74 W
Lens Rank: 82 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 10 - 13
13
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monaco
39.07%
Draw
25.01%
Away LOSC Lille
35.92%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.13
80.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monaco
LOSC Lille
Power Score
80.13
80.71
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
60
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monaco LOSC Lille

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monaco ASM Home
36 matches
LOSC Lille LOSC Away
Match Record
13
Wins
13
10
Draws
10
13
Losses
13
Goals
43
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
43
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:38:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Özer
Türkiye
1 B. Özer
R. Perraud
France
15 R. Perraud
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
T. Santos Carvalho
Portugal
22 T. Santos Carvalho
B. André
France
21 B. André
A. Bouaddi
France
32 A. Bouaddi
F. Sanches Correia
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
H. Haraldsson
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
E. Mbappé Lottin
France
8 E. Mbappé Lottin
M. Fernandez Pardo
Belgium
7 M. Fernandez Pardo

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Louis II.
Capacity
18523
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Clément Turpin
Nicolas Danos
Benjamin Pages
Jérémie Pignard

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky Goalkeeper
6.75
5
Thilo Kehrer
Thilo Kehrer Defender
6.92
6
Denis Zakaria
Denis Zakaria Defender
6.88
13
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa Defender
6.67
4
J. Teze
J. Teze Midfielder
6.91
8
Paul Pogba
Paul Pogba Midfielder
6.6
15
Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara Midfielder
7.19
24
Simon Adingra
Simon Adingra Midfielder
6.77
9
Folarin Balogun
Folarin Balogun Attacker
6.98
11
Maghnes Akliouche
Maghnes Akliouche Attacker
7.11
31
Ansu Fati
Ansu Fati Attacker
6.89
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
6.86
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
7.06
22
Tiago Santos
Tiago Santos Defender
6.51
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
7.11
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
7.08
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André Midfielder
7.19
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
6.8
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Attacker
7.08
8
Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé Attacker
6.72
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Attacker
6.9

CONCLUSION

Lille enters as marginal favorites bolstered by better form and power metrics, yet Monaco's home venue at Stade Louis II. offers counterbalance in this Ligue 1 showdown. Visitors' 4th-place perch signals organizational edge over 6th-placed hosts, but tight power scores predict cagey play. Form disparity highlights Lille's momentum, pressuring Monaco to harness crowd energy early. Absent detailed efficiency and set-piece insights, focus shifts to structural battles and transitions. Squad quality tilts Lille-ward, though fine execution decides. Anticipate low-scoring tension where defensive resolve triumphs, potentially crowning Lille with vital points.